Mass displacement · Results · Macro Scenarios

Typical nation−0.25median change in index, points

Hardest hit−0.75Chad

Lose a domain band113of 197 nations

Worth of best practice+0.10mean points recovered over current plans

Change in index, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Further left is a larger fall.

Lowest: Chad, South Sudan, Libya. Highest: Vietnam, Japan, Singapore.

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Governance & Integrity−0.68

Human Capital−0.61

Information & Influence−0.50

Strategic Infrastructure−0.30

Financial Strength−0.29

National Security−0.21

Production & Innovation−0.04

Critical Technology0.00

Trade & Investment0.00

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.

No responseCurrent plansBest practice

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

Region

										Weakest point
Chad	Africa	High 1.00	2.26	1.51	−0.75	−33.3	▼ 7	17 · 2d	12%	Foundational Education 0.6 · Inception
South Sudan	Africa	High 0.99	1.38	0.64	−0.74	−53.6	0	3	8%	Foundational Education 0 · Inception
Libya	Africa	High 0.98	3.01	2.28	−0.73	−24.3	▼ 8	21	16%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.2 · Inception
Sudan	Africa	High 0.93	2.61	1.90	−0.71	−27.4	▼ 6	17 · 2d	12%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Djibouti	Africa	High 0.97	3.20	2.50	−0.70	−21.9	▼ 9	17 · 3d	18%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.3 · Inception
Central African Rep.	Africa	High 0.90	1.66	0.97	−0.69	−41.4	▼ 3	7	10%	Internal Security & Order 0 · Inception
Niger	Africa	High 0.93	3.07	2.40	−0.68	−22.0	▼ 7	20 · 3d	17%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.7 · Inception
Congo	Africa	High 0.91	3.19	2.52	−0.67	−21.0	▼ 7	16 · 4d	17%	Internal Security & Order 2.1 · Inception
DR Congo	Africa	High 0.86	2.87	2.21	−0.66	−22.9	▼ 4	18 · 4d	14%	Internal Security & Order 1.1 · Inception
Mali	Africa	High 0.88	3.41	2.78	−0.63	−18.6	▼ 3	18 · 2d	18%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.5 · Inception
Uganda	Africa	High 0.97	5.53	4.91	−0.62	−11.3	▼ 4	19 · 3d	27%	Foundational Education 4.9 · Nascent
Ethiopia	Africa	High 0.90	5.70	5.11	−0.59	−10.3	▼ 4	21 · 3d	26%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.7 · Nascent
Burkina Faso	Africa	High 0.83	3.47	2.88	−0.59	−16.9	▼ 3	16 · 2d	19%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.7 · Inception
Iran	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.98	8.17	7.60	−0.57	−6.9	▼ 3	11 · 2d	36%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Benin	Africa	High 0.83	4.09	3.53	−0.56	−13.7	▼ 13	15 · 1d	23%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
Jordan	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.99	7.50	6.95	−0.55	−7.3	▼ 4	15	37%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.1 · Nascent
Kenya	Africa	High 0.93	7.18	6.62	−0.55	−7.7	▼ 3	12	32%	Internal Security & Order 5.8 · Nascent
Côte d'Ivoire	Africa	High 0.84	5.42	4.88	−0.55	−10.1	▼ 5	13 · 3d	26%	Health System Capability 4.5 · Nascent
Lebanon	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.80	4.66	4.11	−0.55	−11.8	▼ 5	21 · 2d	22%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.1 · Inception
Mauritania	Africa	High 0.76	3.58	3.03	−0.55	−15.3	▼ 3	11 · 2d	19%	Health System Capability 2.8 · Inception
Eritrea	Africa	High 0.71	2.01	1.48	−0.53	−26.4	▼ 2	9 · 1d	12%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Somalia	Africa	High 0.64	1.62	1.11	−0.52	−31.8	0	2	9%	Internal Security & Order 0.3 · Inception
Burundi	Africa	High 0.69	2.48	1.97	−0.51	−20.6	▼ 3	16 · 3d	15%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Cameroon	Africa	High 0.72	4.39	3.89	−0.50	−11.4	▼ 4	10 · 1d	22%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3 · Nascent
Egypt	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.90	8.98	8.48	−0.49	−5.5	▼ 4	17 · 1d	38%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 · Nascent
Algeria	Africa	High 0.86	6.96	6.46	−0.49	−7.1	▼ 4	17	35%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.3 · Nascent
Iraq	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.70	4.69	4.22	−0.47	−10.0	▼ 2	15 · 1d	24%	Internal Security & Order 4.4 · Nascent
Syria	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.60	2.22	1.75	−0.47	−21.2	▼ 3	13 · 1d	11%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Togo	Africa	High 0.67	4.05	3.59	−0.46	−11.4	▼ 10	15	22%	Internal Security & Order 3.8 · Nascent
Türkiye	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.98	12.18	11.73	−0.45	−3.7	▼ 2	14 · 1d	49%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7.5 · Foundational
Zambia	Africa	High 0.66	4.93	4.49	−0.44	−8.9	▼ 2	13	25%	Health System Capability 4.8 · Nascent
Pakistan	South Asia	High 0.69	7.96	7.52	−0.43	−5.5	0	10 · 2d	29%	Foundational Education 4.8 · Nascent
Angola	Africa	High 0.62	4.60	4.17	−0.43	−9.3	0	11 · 1d	22%	Health System Capability 4.2 · Nascent
Bangladesh	South Asia	High 0.68	6.73	6.32	−0.41	−6.0	▼ 3	16	32%	Internal Security & Order 5.3 · Nascent
Rwanda	Africa	High 0.71	5.95	5.54	−0.41	−6.8	▼ 5	10	34%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.9 · Nascent
Tanzania	Africa	High 0.65	5.82	5.41	−0.41	−7.1	▼ 6	11 · 1d	29%	Health System Capability 5.6 · Nascent
Guinea	Africa	Medium 0.56	3.15	2.74	−0.41	−13.0	0	9 · 2d	17%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.6 · Inception
Moldova	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.66	6.34	5.96	−0.38	−6.0	▼ 1	12 · 4d	34%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational
Laos	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.54	3.70	3.33	−0.38	−10.2	0	10	20%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2 · Inception
Nigeria	Africa	Medium 0.59	7.43	7.06	−0.37	−5.0	▼ 1	13 · 2d	29%	Foundational Education 5 · Nascent
Senegal	Africa	High 0.60	6.42	6.05	−0.37	−5.7	0	18 · 1d	31%	Labour & Employment 5.7 · Nascent
Guyana	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.55	4.53	4.17	−0.36	−8.0	▲ 1	12 · 1d	26%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.4 · Nascent
Romania	Europe	High 0.71	10.16	9.81	−0.35	−3.5	▼ 1	10	44%	Health System Capability 9.8 · Transitional
Slovakia	Europe	High 0.76	10.10	9.75	−0.35	−3.5	▼ 1	14 · 4d	48%	Health System Capability 11.5 · Transitional
Ghana	Africa	Medium 0.59	6.98	6.63	−0.35	−5.1	0	8 · 1d	32%	Labour & Employment 6.5 · Foundational
Yemen	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.44	1.62	1.27	−0.35	−21.7	▲ 1	5	8%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.1 · Inception
Saudi Arabia	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.75	11.19	10.85	−0.34	−3.0	0	11 · 2d	49%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.2 · Inception
Tunisia	Africa	High 0.61	7.71	7.37	−0.34	−4.4	0	9 · 1d	37%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.8 · Foundational
Tajikistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.50	4.01	3.67	−0.34	−8.4	▼ 1	12	24%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.5 · Inception
Poland	Europe	High 0.76	12.39	12.06	−0.33	−2.7	▼ 1	10	51%	Health System Capability 11.9 · Transitional
Turkmenistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.47	3.55	3.22	−0.33	−9.2	0	11 · 2d	22%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.9 · Inception
Israel	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.85	14.46	14.13	−0.32	−2.2	0	10 · 1d	57%	Foundational Education 12.9 · Established
Hungary	Europe	High 0.69	10.51	10.20	−0.32	−3.0	▼ 1	15	48%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9.2 · Transitional
Montenegro	Europe	Medium 0.57	6.35	6.03	−0.32	−5.0	0	7 · 2d	36%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8 · Foundational
Kuwait	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.58	7.51	7.20	−0.31	−4.1	0	14 · 1d	40%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 · Nascent
Dominican Republic	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.55	6.82	6.51	−0.31	−4.6	0	11 · 2d	35%	Internal Security & Order 7.3 · Foundational
Suriname	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.47	4.04	3.73	−0.31	−7.7	▲ 1	11 · 1d	25%	Internal Security & Order 5.3 · Nascent
Malawi	Africa	Medium 0.44	3.76	3.45	−0.31	−8.2	▼ 1	9 · 1d	21%	Labour & Employment 4 · Nascent
Eswatini	Africa	Medium 0.46	3.71	3.40	−0.31	−8.3	0	9	22%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.9 · Inception
Gambia	Africa	Medium 0.43	3.32	3.01	−0.31	−9.3	▲ 1	6 · 1d	19%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Colombia	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.59	9.11	8.81	−0.30	−3.3	0	12 · 1d	43%	Labour & Employment 9.2 · Transitional
Belarus	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.55	6.90	6.60	−0.30	−4.4	0	16 · 2d	38%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.3 · Inception
Trinidad & Tobago	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.54	6.69	6.40	−0.30	−4.5	▲ 1	18 · 2d	37%	Internal Security & Order 7.7 · Foundational
Belize	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.47	4.03	3.73	−0.30	−7.5	▲ 3	8 · 1d	27%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent
Palestine	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.43	3.72	3.42	−0.30	−8.0	0	4 · 1d	21%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 · Inception
Sierra Leone	Africa	Medium 0.43	3.59	3.29	−0.30	−8.4	▼ 1	7 · 1d	21%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
Afghanistan	South Asia	Medium 0.38	1.46	1.17	−0.30	−20.2	▲ 2	8	11%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Brazil	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.63	11.69	11.40	−0.29	−2.5	▼ 1	7 · 1d	48%	Internal Security & Order 9.7 · Transitional
Cyprus	Europe	Medium 0.59	8.51	8.22	−0.29	−3.4	0	9	45%	Social Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
Costa Rica	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.59	7.76	7.47	−0.29	−3.7	0	11 · 2d	44%	Labour & Employment 9.8 · Transitional
Venezuela	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.40	4.55	4.27	−0.29	−6.3	▲ 3	11 · 1d	19%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.3 · Inception
Zimbabwe	Africa	Medium 0.42	4.34	4.04	−0.29	−6.8	0	9 · 2d	21%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 · Nascent
São Tomé & Príncipe	Africa	Medium 0.43	2.85	2.56	−0.29	−10.3	▲ 3	11 · 1d	20%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Holy See	Europe	Medium 0.43	1.85	1.56	−0.29	−15.5	▲ 2	4 · 1d	11%	Foundational Education 0 · Inception
India	South Asia	Medium 0.56	12.61	12.34	−0.28	−2.2	0	9	44%	Labour & Employment 8 · Foundational
Peru	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.53	8.61	8.32	−0.28	−3.3	0	8 · 1d	40%	Internal Security & Order 7.7 · Foundational
Oman	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.56	8.03	7.74	−0.28	−3.5	▲ 1	11	43%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.4 · Nascent
North Macedonia	Europe	Medium 0.51	6.61	6.33	−0.28	−4.3	▲ 1	11 · 2d	37%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
Kosovo	Europe	Medium 0.43	4.70	4.43	−0.28	−5.8	0	4	27%	Labour & Employment 5.5 · Nascent
Nicaragua	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.43	4.37	4.09	−0.28	−6.4	0	8 · 2d	26%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2 · Inception
Mozambique	Africa	Medium 0.40	4.12	3.84	−0.28	−6.9	0	9	21%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
Saint Vincent & Grenadines	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.43	3.76	3.48	−0.28	−7.4	▲ 1	4 · 1d	26%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
Liberia	Africa	Medium 0.38	2.93	2.66	−0.28	−9.4	▲ 1	7 · 2d	17%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Nauru	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.39	1.96	1.69	−0.28	−14.1	▲ 2	7 · 1d	16%	Labour & Employment 2.8 · Inception
Bulgaria	Europe	Medium 0.54	8.95	8.68	−0.27	−3.1	0	7	42%	Internal Security & Order 9.4 · Transitional
Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.47	6.65	6.38	−0.27	−4.0	▲ 1	9 · 1d	35%	Labour & Employment 7.3 · Foundational
Uzbekistan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.45	5.92	5.65	−0.27	−4.6	0	8 · 1d	31%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Grenada	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.43	4.04	3.77	−0.27	−6.7	▲ 2	2 · 1d	27%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.1 · Nascent
Latvia	Europe	Medium 0.56	9.89	9.64	−0.26	−2.6	0	11 · 3d	48%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11 · Transitional
Liechtenstein	Europe	Medium 0.55	7.22	6.96	−0.26	−3.6	▲ 1	8 · 1d	44%	Social Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional
Albania	Europe	Medium 0.46	6.13	5.87	−0.26	−4.3	0	7 · 2d	35%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7.4 · Foundational
Namibia	Africa	Medium 0.44	5.95	5.69	−0.26	−4.4	▼ 2	2 · 1d	33%	Labour & Employment 6.8 · Foundational
Cabo Verde	Africa	Medium 0.43	4.72	4.47	−0.26	−5.5	0	7 · 2d	31%	Labour & Employment 6 · Foundational
Maldives	South Asia	Medium 0.43	4.62	4.36	−0.26	−5.7	▲ 2	11	31%	Labour & Employment 6.3 · Foundational
Bhutan	South Asia	Medium 0.43	3.93	3.66	−0.26	−6.7	0	6 · 1d	29%	Labour & Employment 4.8 · Nascent
Lesotho	Africa	Medium 0.37	3.43	3.17	−0.26	−7.6	▲ 2	5	20%	Health System Capability 4.4 · Nascent
Greece	Europe	Medium 0.52	10.61	10.37	−0.25	−2.3	▼ 1	9	46%	Labour & Employment 10.5 · Transitional
Malta	Europe	Medium 0.54	8.89	8.64	−0.25	−2.8	0	5 · 4d	48%	Internal Security & Order 11.5 · Transitional
Ecuador	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.43	6.76	6.51	−0.25	−3.7	▲ 1	8	34%	Internal Security & Order 6.5 · Foundational
Jamaica	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.43	6.24	5.99	−0.25	−4.0	▲ 1	6 · 1d	34%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7 · Foundational
Paraguay	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.41	5.79	5.54	−0.25	−4.2	0	7	33%	Internal Security & Order 6.5 · Foundational
Nepal	South Asia	Medium 0.40	4.96	4.71	−0.25	−5.1	▼ 1	6 · 2d	27%	Labour & Employment 5.3 · Nascent
Guinea-Bissau	Africa	Low 0.32	2.07	1.83	−0.25	−11.8	▲ 2	11 · 1d	13%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
Czechia	Europe	Medium 0.58	11.51	11.27	−0.24	−2.1	▼ 1	5 · 1d	52%	Labour & Employment 12.8 · Established
Lithuania	Europe	Medium 0.55	10.75	10.51	−0.24	−2.2	0	7	51%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11.6 · Transitional
Croatia	Europe	Medium 0.49	9.53	9.30	−0.24	−2.5	0	10 · 2d	46%	Labour & Employment 11.1 · Transitional
Serbia	Europe	Medium 0.48	8.97	8.73	−0.24	−2.7	0	9	43%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9.5 · Transitional
Uruguay	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.50	8.54	8.31	−0.24	−2.8	0	9 · 1d	46%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional
Panama	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.44	7.17	6.93	−0.24	−3.3	▲ 1	2 · 2d	39%	Internal Security & Order 8.5 · Foundational
Seychelles	Africa	Medium 0.43	5.27	5.03	−0.24	−4.6	▲ 1	7 · 2d	36%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8 · Foundational
Gabon	Africa	Medium 0.35	3.94	3.69	−0.24	−6.2	▲ 2	7	22%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.8 · Nascent
Haiti	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.30	2.03	1.79	−0.24	−11.8	▲ 2	3	10%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.2 · Inception
Thailand	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.50	10.70	10.46	−0.23	−2.2	0	10 · 1d	47%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.2 · Foundational
Guatemala	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.37	5.67	5.43	−0.23	−4.1	▲ 1	9	29%	Internal Security & Order 5.5 · Nascent
Madagascar	Africa	Low 0.33	3.90	3.67	−0.23	−5.9	▲ 3	5	21%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
Equatorial Guinea	Africa	Low 0.31	2.80	2.57	−0.23	−8.1	▲ 6	5	16%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.2 · Inception
Comoros	Africa	Low 0.32	2.29	2.05	−0.23	−10.2	▲ 2	4 · 2d	15%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception
Ireland	Europe	Medium 0.56	12.08	11.85	−0.22	−1.9	▲ 1	9 · 1d	55%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 12.4 · Established
Estonia	Europe	Medium 0.57	11.49	11.26	−0.22	−1.9	▼ 1	7 · 1d	56%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11.4 · Transitional
Mexico	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.45	10.85	10.63	−0.22	−2.0	0	7	45%	Internal Security & Order 8.3 · Foundational
Luxembourg	Europe	Medium 0.55	10.79	10.57	−0.22	−2.0	0	4 · 1d	55%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 12.8 · Established
South Africa	Africa	Medium 0.45	10.77	10.55	−0.22	−2.1	0	10	44%	Internal Security & Order 9.2 · Transitional
Iceland	Europe	Medium 0.56	9.63	9.41	−0.22	−2.3	0	5 · 1d	55%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 12 · Established
Bosnia & Herzegovina	Europe	Medium 0.36	5.80	5.57	−0.22	−3.8	▲ 1	5 · 1d	31%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.9 · Foundational
Bolivia	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.35	5.11	4.89	−0.22	−4.3	▲ 1	7	29%	Internal Security & Order 5.9 · Nascent
San Marino	Europe	Medium 0.43	5.03	4.81	−0.22	−4.3	0	3	40%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8.4 · Foundational
Kyrgyzstan	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.34	4.77	4.55	−0.22	−4.6	▲ 1	9	27%	Labour & Employment 5.8 · Nascent
Saint Kitts & Nevis	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.35	3.83	3.61	−0.22	−5.8	▲ 2	6 · 1d	25%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent
Italy	Europe	Medium 0.50	13.72	13.52	−0.21	−1.5	0	6	54%	Labour & Employment 11.8 · Transitional
Russia	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.42	12.30	12.09	−0.21	−1.7	▲ 1	5	46%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 · Nascent
Portugal	Europe	Medium 0.49	11.68	11.47	−0.21	−1.8	▲ 1	2 · 2d	52%	Labour & Employment 12.6 · Established
Slovenia	Europe	Medium 0.48	10.48	10.27	−0.21	−2.0	▲ 1	3 · 1d	51%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 12.2 · Established
Botswana	Africa	Medium 0.38	6.08	5.86	−0.21	−3.5	0	3 · 1d	36%	Labour & Employment 7.3 · Foundational
Andorra	Europe	Medium 0.43	5.15	4.94	−0.21	−4.1	▲ 2	9	41%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 9.4 · Transitional
Honduras	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.33	5.05	4.84	−0.21	−4.2	0	7 · 4d	26%	Internal Security & Order 5.3 · Nascent
Dominica	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.34	3.87	3.66	−0.21	−5.5	▲ 2	3	27%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent
Saint Lucia	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.32	3.85	3.64	−0.21	−5.4	▲ 2	7 · 1d	26%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.4 · Nascent
Papua New Guinea	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.30	3.80	3.59	−0.21	−5.6	▲ 1	6	18%	Health System Capability 3.6 · Nascent
United Kingdom	Europe	Medium 0.60	16.45	16.26	−0.20	−1.2	0	7	63%	Labour & Employment 14.8 · Established
China	China	Medium 0.49	15.64	15.45	−0.20	−1.3	0	5	55%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 · Nascent
Spain	Europe	Medium 0.52	13.78	13.58	−0.20	−1.5	0	3	56%	Labour & Employment 13.3 · Established
Belgium	Europe	Medium 0.55	13.46	13.26	−0.20	−1.5	0	11 · 2d	58%	Internal Security & Order 14.3 · Established
Austria	Europe	Medium 0.57	12.81	12.60	−0.20	−1.6	0	9 · 2d	60%	Foundational Education 14.6 · Established
Morocco	Africa	Medium 0.39	9.36	9.15	−0.20	−2.2	0	3 · 2d	41%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7.3 · Foundational
Georgia	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.36	7.55	7.35	−0.20	−2.6	0	7 · 2d	39%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational
El Salvador	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.34	5.68	5.47	−0.20	−3.6	▲ 2	13	32%	Labour & Employment 6.3 · Foundational
Bahamas	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.34	5.16	4.97	−0.20	−3.9	▲ 1	9	33%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational
Antigua & Barbuda	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.33	4.36	4.15	−0.20	−4.7	▲ 3	4 · 2d	29%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.6 · Foundational
Germany	Europe	Medium 0.58	16.36	16.18	−0.19	−1.1	▼ 1	4	64%	Foundational Education 14.9 · Established
Argentina	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.37	9.25	9.06	−0.19	−2.0	0	8	41%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.2 · Foundational
Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.37	7.32	7.13	−0.19	−2.7	▲ 2	8	41%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3 · Nascent
Monaco	Europe	Medium 0.39	5.91	5.72	−0.19	−3.2	▲ 3	6	44%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.3 · Foundational
North Korea	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	4.26	4.08	−0.19	−4.4	▲ 2	10	19%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.4 · Inception
Myanmar	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	3.89	3.70	−0.19	−4.8	▲ 6	5 · 1d	17%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.7 · Inception
Netherlands	Europe	Medium 0.54	15.50	15.32	−0.18	−1.1	0	1 · 1d	63%	Foundational Education 15.7 · Advanced
Switzerland	Europe	Medium 0.55	14.73	14.55	−0.18	−1.2	0	1	63%	Foundational Education 15.4 · Advanced
Norway	Europe	Medium 0.55	14.62	14.45	−0.18	−1.2	0	6	64%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.9 · Established
Chile	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.41	10.61	10.43	−0.18	−1.7	▲ 1	2 · 1d	51%	Labour & Employment 11.1 · Transitional
Kazakhstan	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.33	8.14	7.97	−0.18	−2.2	▲ 1	7 · 1d	40%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.1 · Nascent
Sri Lanka	South Asia	Low 0.32	7.25	7.07	−0.18	−2.5	▲ 2	7 · 1d	36%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.7 · Foundational
Barbados	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.33	5.56	5.37	−0.18	−3.3	▲ 1	4 · 1d	36%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational
Timor-Leste	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	2.98	2.80	−0.18	−6.0	▲ 6	3 · 2d	19%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception
Vanuatu	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	2.93	2.75	−0.18	−6.1	▲ 6	3	20%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Solomon Islands	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	2.91	2.73	−0.18	−6.2	▲ 5	3 · 1d	20%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Marshall Islands	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	2.48	2.30	−0.18	−7.3	▲ 4	5	17%	Labour & Employment 2.8 · Inception
Micronesia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	2.33	2.14	−0.18	−7.9	▲ 2	9	17%	Labour & Employment 2.8 · Inception
Kiribati	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	2.20	2.02	−0.18	−8.3	▲ 4	9	17%	Labour & Employment 2.8 · Inception
Tuvalu	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	2.12	1.93	−0.18	−8.7	▲ 3	2	17%	Labour & Employment 2.8 · Inception
France	Europe	Medium 0.52	16.64	16.47	−0.17	−1.0	0	3	63%	Foundational Education 14.7 · Established
Sweden	Europe	Medium 0.53	15.30	15.13	−0.17	−1.1	0	3	64%	Internal Security & Order 15.4 · Advanced
Finland	Europe	Medium 0.54	14.52	14.35	−0.17	−1.2	0	4	64%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.9 · Established
Denmark	Europe	Medium 0.53	13.94	13.77	−0.17	−1.2	0	5	63%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.9 · Established
United Arab Emirates	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.41	11.94	11.77	−0.17	−1.4	▲ 1	6 · 1d	52%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.7 · Inception
Qatar	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.36	9.39	9.23	−0.17	−1.8	0	4	47%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Cuba	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.31	5.95	5.78	−0.17	−2.9	▲ 2	5	38%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Samoa	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	3.48	3.31	−0.17	−4.8	▲ 3	5	24%	Labour & Employment 4.6 · Nascent
Tonga	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	3.21	3.03	−0.17	−5.4	▲ 3	5 · 3d	23%	Labour & Employment 4.1 · Nascent
Palau	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.25	2.84	2.67	−0.17	−6.0	▲ 7	3 · 2d	20%	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4 · Nascent
Malaysia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.36	11.48	11.32	−0.16	−1.4	▲ 2	6 · 1d	48%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 10.1 · Transitional
Mauritius	Africa	Low 0.34	8.08	7.91	−0.16	−2.0	▲ 1	6 · 1d	45%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 10.3 · Transitional
Azerbaijan	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.28	6.79	6.64	−0.16	−2.3	▲ 5	3	36%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.1 · Nascent
Canada	North America	Medium 0.40	15.06	14.92	−0.14	−0.9	0	4	62%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 15.2 · Advanced
Brunei	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	5.60	5.46	−0.14	−2.5	▲ 3	7	38%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.5 · Inception
United States	North America	Medium 0.39	18.03	17.89	−0.13	−0.7	0	4 · 2d	62%	Foundational Education 14.3 · Established
Fiji	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.20	5.16	5.04	−0.13	−2.4	▲ 4	5	29%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational
Ukraine	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.22	9.40	9.29	−0.12	−1.2	0	6	40%	Labour & Employment 8.4 · Foundational
Cambodia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.19	4.93	4.80	−0.12	−2.5	▲ 2	5	25%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.9 · Nascent
Australia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.35	14.95	14.83	−0.11	−0.7	0	3	63%	Labour & Employment 15.9 · Advanced
New Zealand	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.30	12.83	12.73	−0.11	−0.8	0	7	60%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 13.2 · Established
Indonesia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.21	9.97	9.86	−0.11	−1.1	▲ 2	5	42%	Labour & Employment 8.9 · Foundational
Philippines	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.20	8.83	8.73	−0.11	−1.2	▲ 4	5 · 1d	39%	Internal Security & Order 8 · Foundational
Mongolia	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.19	5.73	5.62	−0.11	−2.0	▲ 4	2 · 1d	33%	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
South Korea	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.29	16.00	15.91	−0.10	−0.6	0	4	63%	Labour & Employment 14.9 · Established
Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	14.03	13.94	−0.09	−0.7	0	5 · 1d	59%	Labour & Employment 13.4 · Established
Vietnam	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.18	9.68	9.59	−0.09	−0.9	0	6	43%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 · Nascent
Japan	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	16.26	16.18	−0.08	−0.5	▲ 1	2	65%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 15.1 · Advanced
Singapore	Indo-Pacific	Low 0.26	15.20	15.12	−0.08	−0.5	0	7	66%	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 10.7 · Transitional

Settings of this run

Load: 9 capability groups singled out, 50 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
Singled out: Water, Sanitation & Waste InfrastructureMediumSocial InfrastructureMediumFoundational EducationHighHealth System CapabilityHighPolitical Institutions & Civic ParticipationHighInternal Security & OrderHighGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationHighFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceMediumLabour & EmploymentLow
Buffers: Social InfrastructureGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementFiscal Capacity & Public FinanceHealth System Capability
Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.
Exposure: land borders with states in conflict or collapse (40%); regional exposure (30%); refugees hosted per head of population (ranked) (30%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.
Likelihood: 4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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Mass displacement shock