Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years56.7rank 11 of 197 · 3 years: 56.2
Worst case−40.2%Global financial crisis · tail −39.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−17.5rank 192 of 197 · 3 years: −17.0
Best case+4100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed7%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.92expected index points from best practice
Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: urban share of population; no coastline; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Holy See’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Global financial crisis S03−0.74
Pandemic S14−0.74
AI diffusion shock S13−0.72
Energy supply shock S09−0.63
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.59
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.58
Disaster in the core S10−0.40
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.39
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.37
Chokepoint closure S05−0.36
Hybrid campaign S06−0.33
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.30
Mass displacement S08−0.29
Food and water shock S11−0.27
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 1.00 | −0.74 | −0.77 | −0.42 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 1.00 | −0.74 | −0.80 | −0.44 | 0 | 9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.93 | −0.72 | −0.75 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 1.00 | −0.63 | −0.65 | −0.35 | ▲ 4 | 8 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 1.00 | −0.59 | −0.66 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 7 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.82 | −0.58 | −0.60 | −0.32 | ▲ 2 | 6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.55 | −0.40 | −0.45 | −0.21 | ▲ 2 | 5 | Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.60 | −0.39 | −0.46 | −0.23 | ▲ 2 | 6 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 1.00 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.20 | ▲ 1 | 3 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.60 | −0.36 | −0.38 | −0.20 | ▲ 6 | 4 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.53 | −0.33 | −0.37 | −0.18 | 0 | 7 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.30 | −0.30 | −0.33 | −0.15 | ▲ 9 | 1 | Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.43 | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 2 | 4 | Foundational Education 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.30 | −0.27 | −0.28 | −0.13 | ▲ 9 | 1 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis | −0.09 | −0.40 | −0.24 | −0.91 | −1.40 | −1.53 | −1.51 | −0.21 | −0.38 |
| Pandemic | −0.09 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.89 | −1.54 | −1.58 | −1.26 | −0.21 | −0.37 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.09 | −0.38 | −0.23 | −1.00 | −1.31 | −1.60 | −1.26 | −0.21 | −0.36 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.02 | −0.71 | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.72 | −1.56 | −1.30 | −0.21 | −0.38 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.09 | −0.38 | −0.23 | · | −1.53 | −1.43 | −1.10 | −0.21 | −0.36 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.09 | −0.79 | −0.22 | −0.48 | −0.59 | −1.45 | −1.04 | −0.21 | −0.35 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.67 | −0.14 | −0.64 | −0.37 | −0.92 | −0.49 | −0.16 | −0.23 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.09 | · | −0.24 | −0.32 | −0.86 | −1.14 | −0.90 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.24 | −0.64 | · | −1.59 | · | −0.21 | −0.39 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −0.49 | −0.25 | · | −0.50 | −1.07 | −0.43 | −0.21 | −0.30 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.09 | −0.46 | −0.28 | · | −0.92 | −0.86 | · | −0.15 | −0.23 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.38 | −0.40 | −0.55 | −0.65 | −0.17 | −0.23 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.53 | −0.57 | −0.77 | −0.33 | −0.04 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.40 | −0.49 | −0.53 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.24 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Holy See is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+3.9
Middle East settlement S21+0.3
Energy abundance S16−1.0
Digital state leapfrog S23−14.3
Great-power détente S18−16.3
Sovereign debt reset S19−16.6
Emerging-market breakout S20−17.5
Yield revolution S22−18.1
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−39.8
Superintelligence takeoff S15−42.0
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 8 | 112 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +0.3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 11 | 139 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | −1.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 133 | Advanced Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −14.3 | 2.0 | 16.2 | 7 | 173 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −16.3 | 5.2 | 21.5 | 7 | 179 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Loser | −16.6 | 0.6 | 17.2 | 12 | 197 | Health System Capability 1.3 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Loser | −17.5 | 0.8 | 18.4 | 3 | 193 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −18.1 | 1.0 | 19.1 | 5 | 176 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −39.8 | 4.4 | 44.2 | 6 | 197 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −42.0 | 2.9 | 44.8 | 4 | 188 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |