Scenarios 2027 / Results / S20

Capture test · S20 · Standard Severe · 197 nations

Emerging-market growth breakout

A Economic and trade↗ Upside scenarioScenario record

How much of this scenario’s gain each nation is ready to take, set against what it stands to lose and how well it can adapt.

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Gainers77net position above +10
Mixed111between the two
Losers9net position below -10
Largest net gain+36India

Net position, by region

One dot per nation. The bar marks each region’s mean. Filled dots are net gains; hollow dots are net losses.

−30−20−100+10+20+30Net position, −100 to +100North America 2United States: +12.9Canada: +6.8North America mean: +9.8Europe 42France: +13.6United Kingdom: +11.0Germany: +7.8Netherlands: +8.4Sweden: +11.8Switzerland: +6.8Norway: +1.2Finland: +10.9Denmark: +5.5Spain: +3.7Italy: −0.3Belgium: +8.3Austria: +2.6Poland: −1.3Ireland: −1.0Portugal: +2.2Czechia: −1.7Estonia: +4.3Luxembourg: +1.9Lithuania: −1.2Greece: +1.0Hungary: −0.1Slovenia: −3.9Romania: −3.0Slovakia: −3.2Latvia: +0.1Iceland: +0.9Croatia: −3.9Serbia: −1.2Bulgaria: −4.5Malta: −2.7Cyprus: −2.5Liechtenstein: −18.7North Macedonia: −4.7Montenegro: −1.3Albania: −3.6Monaco: −13.3Bosnia & Herzegovina: −7.4Andorra: −13.3San Marino: −30.6Kosovo: −7.8Holy See: −17.5Europe mean: −1.1San MarinoChina 1China: +14.8China mean: +14.8Indo-Pacific 30Japan: +22.8South Korea: +20.4Singapore: +16.6Australia: +19.9Taiwan: +22.7New Zealand: +19.6Malaysia: +15.6Thailand: +13.3Indonesia: +17.1Vietnam: +20.3Philippines: +23.0Mongolia: −0.3Brunei: −22.5Fiji: +9.8Cambodia: +8.9North Korea: +10.3Myanmar: +3.7Papua New Guinea: +7.9Laos: +3.2Samoa: +6.9Tonga: +5.0Timor-Leste: +6.1Vanuatu: +9.5Solomon Islands: +10.3Palau: −0.6Marshall Islands: +4.1Micronesia: +6.1Kiribati: +4.7Tuvalu: +2.8Nauru: −4.2Indo-Pacific mean: +9.4BruneiSouth Asia 8India: +35.8Pakistan: +27.5Sri Lanka: +20.6Bangladesh: +18.7Nepal: +17.8Maldives: +13.2Bhutan: +2.0Afghanistan: +6.0South Asia mean: +17.7IndiaGulf and Middle East 16Israel: +23.7Türkiye: +17.0United Arab Emirates: +1.9Saudi Arabia: +3.2Qatar: −12.3Egypt: +15.7Iran: +5.8Oman: +2.6Kuwait: −7.4Jordan: +18.8Bahrain: −8.3Iraq: −1.4Lebanon: +9.9Palestine: +10.5Syria: +4.5Yemen: +5.7Gulf and Middle East mean: +5.6Africa 53South Africa: +30.6Morocco: +29.5Mauritius: +13.3Tunisia: +19.6Nigeria: +22.4Kenya: +26.9Ghana: +22.7Algeria: +9.1Senegal: +23.2Botswana: +4.7Namibia: +14.6Rwanda: +21.6Tanzania: +23.9Ethiopia: +24.4Uganda: +24.0Côte d'Ivoire: +18.7Seychelles: +6.2Zambia: +18.8Cabo Verde: +12.9Angola: +7.4Cameroon: +15.6Zimbabwe: +16.7Mozambique: +21.4Benin: +15.4Togo: +17.6Gabon: −6.3Madagascar: +17.3Malawi: +17.9Eswatini: +3.9Sierra Leone: +11.9Mauritania: +6.3Burkina Faso: +13.6Lesotho: +12.1Mali: +12.9Gambia: +12.2Djibouti: +8.1Congo: +4.1Guinea: +10.8Niger: +12.2Libya: −6.6Liberia: +13.2DR Congo: +13.4São Tomé & Príncipe: +9.4Equatorial Guinea: −8.8Sudan: +9.4Burundi: +11.6Comoros: +7.6Chad: +6.1Guinea-Bissau: +8.5Eritrea: +7.7Central African Rep.: +6.9Somalia: +6.6South Sudan: +6.5Africa mean: +13.0South AfricaMoroccoLatin America and Caribbean 33Brazil: +22.4Mexico: +22.3Chile: +13.1Argentina: +14.4Colombia: +17.1Peru: +15.8Uruguay: +13.8Costa Rica: +11.7Panama: +6.0Dominican Republic: +5.5Ecuador: +11.3Trinidad & Tobago: −3.3Jamaica: +14.1Cuba: −3.9Paraguay: +2.7El Salvador: +11.8Guatemala: +13.2Barbados: +6.9Bahamas: +4.8Bolivia: +8.0Honduras: +11.9Venezuela: +11.1Guyana: −26.0Nicaragua: +6.5Antigua & Barbuda: −0.9Grenada: +3.6Suriname: −8.9Belize: +7.2Dominica: +3.2Saint Lucia: +2.2Saint Kitts & Nevis: −4.5Saint Vincent & Grenadines: +1.1Haiti: +3.7Latin America and Caribbean mean: +6.6GuyanaRussia and Eurasia 12Russia: −0.2Ukraine: +5.3Kazakhstan: +0.6Georgia: +5.2Belarus: −6.2Azerbaijan: −5.2Armenia: +0.4Moldova: +3.6Uzbekistan: +6.4Kyrgyzstan: +5.8Tajikistan: +5.9Turkmenistan: −12.4Russia and Eurasia mean: +0.8
Lowest: San Marino, Guyana, Brunei. Highest: Morocco, South Africa, India.

Readiness against outcome

Each nation’s readiness to take the gain against its net position. Nations below the zero line lose more than they capture.

020406080−200+20Readiness (0 to 100)Net positionUnited States (North America): readiness 76.1, net position +12.90France (Europe): readiness 79.7, net position +13.60United Kingdom (Europe): readiness 77.9, net position +11.00Germany (Europe): readiness 80.1, net position +7.80Japan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 81.4, net position +22.80South Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 80.3, net position +20.40China (China): readiness 73.3, net position +14.80Netherlands (Europe): readiness 76.3, net position +8.40Sweden (Europe): readiness 78.2, net position +11.80Singapore (Indo-Pacific): readiness 65.5, net position +16.60Canada (North America): readiness 76, net position +6.80Australia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 71.4, net position +19.90Switzerland (Europe): readiness 75.4, net position +6.80Norway (Europe): readiness 68.8, net position +1.20Finland (Europe): readiness 75.8, net position +10.90Israel (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 60.7, net position +23.70Taiwan (Indo-Pacific): readiness 72, net position +22.70Denmark (Europe): readiness 65, net position +5.50Spain (Europe): readiness 70.9, net position +3.70Italy (Europe): readiness 66.5, net position −0.30Belgium (Europe): readiness 71.5, net position +8.30New Zealand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 62.3, net position +19.60Austria (Europe): readiness 66.4, net position +2.60India (South Asia): readiness 53.5, net position +35.80Poland (Europe): readiness 62.1, net position −1.30Russia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 56.4, net position −0.20Türkiye (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 63.2, net position +17.00Ireland (Europe): readiness 59.2, net position −1.00United Arab Emirates (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 59.3, net position +1.90Brazil (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 60.4, net position +22.40Portugal (Europe): readiness 60.5, net position +2.20Czechia (Europe): readiness 61.5, net position −1.70Estonia (Europe): readiness 54.6, net position +4.30Malaysia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 60.5, net position +15.60Saudi Arabia (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 55.1, net position +3.20Mexico (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 57.2, net position +22.30Luxembourg (Europe): readiness 52, net position +1.90South Africa (Africa): readiness 55.2, net position +30.60Lithuania (Europe): readiness 55.9, net position −1.20Thailand (Indo-Pacific): readiness 57.7, net position +13.30Chile (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 57.8, net position +13.10Greece (Europe): readiness 54.9, net position +1.00Hungary (Europe): readiness 58.7, net position −0.10Slovenia (Europe): readiness 57.9, net position −3.90Romania (Europe): readiness 53.8, net position −3.00Slovakia (Europe): readiness 53.2, net position −3.20Indonesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 50.1, net position +17.10Latvia (Europe): readiness 51.7, net position +0.10Vietnam (Indo-Pacific): readiness 54.4, net position +20.30Iceland (Europe): readiness 51.4, net position +0.90Croatia (Europe): readiness 49.3, net position −3.90Ukraine (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 40.9, net position +5.30Qatar (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 47.6, net position −12.30Morocco (Africa): readiness 51.6, net position +29.50Argentina (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 49.5, net position +14.40Colombia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 50.7, net position +17.10Egypt (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 47.1, net position +15.70Serbia (Europe): readiness 48.6, net position −1.20Bulgaria (Europe): readiness 47.2, net position −4.50Malta (Europe): readiness 43.7, net position −2.70Philippines (Indo-Pacific): readiness 47.5, net position +23.00Peru (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 48.8, net position +15.80Uruguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 48.8, net position +13.80Cyprus (Europe): readiness 42, net position −2.50Iran (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 34.6, net position +5.80Kazakhstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 46.6, net position +0.60Mauritius (Africa): readiness 44.4, net position +13.30Oman (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 44.1, net position +2.60Pakistan (South Asia): readiness 35.8, net position +27.50Costa Rica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 45.4, net position +11.70Tunisia (Africa): readiness 41.5, net position +19.60Georgia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 41, net position +5.20Kuwait (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 39.8, net position −7.40Jordan (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 40.6, net position +18.80Nigeria (Africa): readiness 35.5, net position +22.40Bahrain (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 40.9, net position −8.30Sri Lanka (South Asia): readiness 40.5, net position +20.60Liechtenstein (Europe): readiness 35.5, net position −18.70Kenya (Africa): readiness 38.4, net position +26.90Panama (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 45.8, net position +6.00Ghana (Africa): readiness 39.1, net position +22.70Algeria (Africa): readiness 34.4, net position +9.10Belarus (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 34.8, net position −6.20Dominican Republic (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 39.2, net position +5.50Azerbaijan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 38.2, net position −5.20Ecuador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 37.3, net position +11.30Bangladesh (South Asia): readiness 35.6, net position +18.70Trinidad & Tobago (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 37.2, net position −3.30Armenia (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 34, net position +0.40North Macedonia (Europe): readiness 37.6, net position −4.70Senegal (Africa): readiness 33.9, net position +23.20Montenegro (Europe): readiness 34.6, net position −1.30Moldova (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 33.2, net position +3.60Jamaica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 34, net position +14.10Albania (Europe): readiness 32.7, net position −3.60Botswana (Africa): readiness 28.3, net position +4.70Namibia (Africa): readiness 33, net position +14.60Cuba (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.9, net position −3.90Rwanda (Africa): readiness 29.2, net position +21.60Uzbekistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 34.7, net position +6.40Monaco (Europe): readiness 28.3, net position −13.30Tanzania (Africa): readiness 33.6, net position +23.90Bosnia & Herzegovina (Europe): readiness 31.9, net position −7.40Paraguay (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 33.7, net position +2.70Mongolia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 30.9, net position −0.30Ethiopia (Africa): readiness 32.3, net position +24.40El Salvador (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.9, net position +11.80Guatemala (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 32.9, net position +13.20Brunei (Indo-Pacific): readiness 33.8, net position −22.50Barbados (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 30.7, net position +6.90Uganda (Africa): readiness 30.4, net position +24.00Côte d'Ivoire (Africa): readiness 31.4, net position +18.70Seychelles (Africa): readiness 27.7, net position +6.20Bahamas (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 27.5, net position +4.80Fiji (Indo-Pacific): readiness 29.1, net position +9.80Andorra (Europe): readiness 26.5, net position −13.30Bolivia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 26.2, net position +8.00Honduras (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 29.6, net position +11.90San Marino (Europe): readiness 23.4, net position −30.60Nepal (South Asia): readiness 24.4, net position +17.80Zambia (Africa): readiness 28.7, net position +18.80Cambodia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 30.4, net position +8.90Kyrgyzstan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 24.5, net position +5.80Cabo Verde (Africa): readiness 24.6, net position +12.90Kosovo (Europe): readiness 25.1, net position −7.80Iraq (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 22.2, net position −1.40Lebanon (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 24.3, net position +9.90Maldives (South Asia): readiness 25.6, net position +13.20Angola (Africa): readiness 24.3, net position +7.40Venezuela (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23, net position +11.10Guyana (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.3, net position −26.00Cameroon (Africa): readiness 26.1, net position +15.60Nicaragua (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 25.9, net position +6.50Antigua & Barbuda (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 24.2, net position −0.90Zimbabwe (Africa): readiness 26.1, net position +16.70North Korea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.5, net position +10.30Mozambique (Africa): readiness 25, net position +21.40Benin (Africa): readiness 21.6, net position +15.40Togo (Africa): readiness 23.2, net position +17.60Grenada (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22, net position +3.60Suriname (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 23.3, net position −8.90Belize (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 22.1, net position +7.20Tajikistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 22.1, net position +5.90Gabon (Africa): readiness 23.4, net position −6.30Bhutan (South Asia): readiness 19.7, net position +2.00Madagascar (Africa): readiness 21.8, net position +17.30Myanmar (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21.1, net position +3.70Dominica (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.9, net position +3.20Saint Lucia (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.1, net position +2.20Saint Kitts & Nevis (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 21.5, net position −4.50Papua New Guinea (Indo-Pacific): readiness 21.9, net position +7.90Malawi (Africa): readiness 21.7, net position +17.90Saint Vincent & Grenadines (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 19.7, net position +1.10Palestine (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 17.7, net position +10.50Eswatini (Africa): readiness 23.6, net position +3.90Laos (Indo-Pacific): readiness 22.5, net position +3.20Sierra Leone (Africa): readiness 18.9, net position +11.90Mauritania (Africa): readiness 20.1, net position +6.30Turkmenistan (Russia and Eurasia): readiness 19.4, net position −12.40Samoa (Indo-Pacific): readiness 17.7, net position +6.90Burkina Faso (Africa): readiness 18.7, net position +13.60Lesotho (Africa): readiness 18.7, net position +12.10Mali (Africa): readiness 18, net position +12.90Gambia (Africa): readiness 17, net position +12.20Tonga (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.2, net position +5.00Djibouti (Africa): readiness 17.8, net position +8.10Congo (Africa): readiness 18.7, net position +4.10Guinea (Africa): readiness 19.4, net position +10.80Niger (Africa): readiness 14.9, net position +12.20Libya (Africa): readiness 15.7, net position −6.60Timor-Leste (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.7, net position +6.10Liberia (Africa): readiness 16.9, net position +13.20Vanuatu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.6, net position +9.50Solomon Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 16.1, net position +10.30DR Congo (Africa): readiness 16.9, net position +13.40São Tomé & Príncipe (Africa): readiness 15, net position +9.40Palau (Indo-Pacific): readiness 15.1, net position −0.60Equatorial Guinea (Africa): readiness 16.2, net position −8.80Sudan (Africa): readiness 12.9, net position +9.40Burundi (Africa): readiness 13.2, net position +11.60Marshall Islands (Indo-Pacific): readiness 14.6, net position +4.10Micronesia (Indo-Pacific): readiness 12.7, net position +6.10Comoros (Africa): readiness 12, net position +7.60Chad (Africa): readiness 10.7, net position +6.10Syria (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 9.7, net position +4.50Kiribati (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.3, net position +4.70Tuvalu (Indo-Pacific): readiness 10.1, net position +2.80Guinea-Bissau (Africa): readiness 11.8, net position +8.50Haiti (Latin America and Caribbean): readiness 11.1, net position +3.70Eritrea (Africa): readiness 9.4, net position +7.70Nauru (Indo-Pacific): readiness 9.9, net position −4.20Holy See (Europe): readiness 2.7, net position −17.50Central African Rep. (Africa): readiness 8.6, net position +6.90Yemen (Gulf and Middle East): readiness 7.9, net position +5.70Somalia (Africa): readiness 8.1, net position +6.60Afghanistan (South Asia): readiness 7.1, net position +6.00South Sudan (Africa): readiness 7.5, net position +6.50IndiaSouth AfricaMoroccoBruneiSan MarinoGuyana
North AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia

Mean net position by region

Loss exposure in this scenario: incumbent manufacturing exporters that lose market share, and nations bypassed by investment.

Europe 42−1.1
Russia and Eurasia 12+0.8
Gulf and Middle East 16+5.6
Latin America and Caribbean 33+6.6
Indo-Pacific 30+9.4
North America 2+9.8
Africa 53+13.0
China 1+14.8
South Asia 8+17.7

All 197 nations

Capture is gain exposure times readiness. Loss is loss exposure times what adaptability does not cover. The binding capability is the weakest of those the scenario requires: raising it raises the capture rate most.

Binding capability
1IndiaSouth AsiaGainer+35.840.04.15456Technical & Vocational Skills 9 · Transitional
2South AfricaAfricaGainer+30.637.06.45554Foundational Education 10.3 · Transitional
3MoroccoAfricaGainer+29.535.45.85247Foundational Education 9.5 · Transitional
4PakistanSouth AsiaGainer+27.530.63.13634Foundational Education 6.3 · Foundational
5KenyaAfricaGainer+26.930.03.13839Technical & Vocational Skills 7 · Foundational
6EthiopiaAfricaGainer+24.427.32.93230Foundational Education 6.3 · Foundational
7UgandaAfricaGainer+24.026.82.83029Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent
8TanzaniaAfricaGainer+23.928.44.53430Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational
9IsraelGulf and Middle EastGainer+23.726.62.96176Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
10SenegalAfricaGainer+23.228.15.03433Technical & Vocational Skills 6 · Foundational
11PhilippinesIndo-PacificGainer+23.031.98.94847Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
12JapanIndo-PacificGainer+22.828.25.48185Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced
14GhanaAfricaGainer+22.730.47.63937Energy Infrastructure 7.4 · Foundational
13TaiwanIndo-PacificGainer+22.727.14.47279Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established
16NigeriaAfricaGainer+22.429.06.53635Foundational Education 6.3 · Foundational
15BrazilLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+22.428.76.36058Foundational Education 11.3 · Transitional
17MexicoLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+22.333.411.15756Technical & Vocational Skills 10.5 · Transitional
18RwandaAfricaGainer+21.624.12.52936Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
19MozambiqueAfricaGainer+21.422.41.12522Technical & Vocational Skills 4.5 · Nascent
20Sri LankaSouth AsiaGainer+20.628.37.84140Investment Attraction & Projection 7 · Foundational
21South KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+20.426.66.28085Technical & Vocational Skills 15.5 · Advanced
22VietnamIndo-PacificGainer+20.331.711.45453Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
23AustraliaIndo-PacificGainer+19.929.29.37175Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established
25TunisiaAfricaGainer+19.626.87.14245Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
24New ZealandIndo-PacificGainer+19.627.17.56270Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
27ZambiaAfricaGainer+18.824.55.72927Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
26JordanGulf and Middle EastGainer+18.824.75.94139Technical & Vocational Skills 7.5 · Foundational
29Côte d'IvoireAfricaGainer+18.724.45.63128Technical & Vocational Skills 5.5 · Nascent
28BangladeshSouth AsiaGainer+18.727.18.43635Technical & Vocational Skills 6 · Foundational
30MalawiAfricaGainer+17.918.60.82220Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
31NepalSouth AsiaGainer+17.819.61.72425Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
32TogoAfricaGainer+17.619.72.12323Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
33MadagascarAfricaGainer+17.318.51.32222Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
35ColombiaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+17.125.58.45148Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
34IndonesiaIndo-PacificGainer+17.129.512.55050Technical & Vocational Skills 9 · Transitional
36TürkiyeGulf and Middle EastGainer+17.025.48.46361Technical & Vocational Skills 12 · Established
37ZimbabweAfricaGainer+16.721.75.02625Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
38SingaporeIndo-PacificGainer+16.620.94.36687Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
39PeruLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+15.827.611.84944Investment Attraction & Projection 9.3 · Transitional
40EgyptGulf and Middle EastGainer+15.726.811.14744Technical & Vocational Skills 8.5 · Foundational
42CameroonAfricaGainer+15.621.86.12623Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
41MalaysiaIndo-PacificGainer+15.629.614.16162Energy Infrastructure 11 · Transitional
43BeninAfricaGainer+15.418.53.12223Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
44ChinaChinaGainer+14.825.010.17374Technical & Vocational Skills 13 · Established
45NamibiaAfricaGainer+14.624.39.73334Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent
46ArgentinaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+14.424.39.85052Investment Attraction & Projection 8.7 · Foundational
47JamaicaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+14.119.65.63435Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
48UruguayLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+13.821.07.24950Investment Attraction & Projection 9 · Transitional
50Burkina FasoAfricaGainer+13.616.42.71918Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
49FranceEuropeGainer+13.619.25.68081Foundational Education 15.3 · Advanced
51DR CongoAfricaGainer+13.415.21.81714Technical & Vocational Skills 3 · Nascent
53MauritiusAfricaGainer+13.320.67.34451Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational
52ThailandIndo-PacificGainer+13.326.513.25855Energy Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional
56LiberiaAfricaGainer+13.214.71.41715Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
55MaldivesSouth AsiaGainer+13.216.53.32628Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
54GuatemalaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+13.220.87.63332Investment Attraction & Projection 6 · Foundational
57ChileLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+13.125.412.35856Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
60MaliAfricaGainer+12.915.82.91817Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
59Cabo VerdeAfricaGainer+12.916.94.02528Industrial & Sectoral Base 3.5 · Nascent
58United StatesNorth AmericaGainer+12.917.14.27686Technical & Vocational Skills 13.5 · Established
62NigerAfricaGainer+12.213.41.21515Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
61GambiaAfricaGainer+12.214.22.01719Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
63LesothoAfricaGainer+12.115.23.11921Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
65Sierra LeoneAfricaGainer+11.916.04.11919Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
64HondurasLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+11.919.27.33028Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
67El SalvadorLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+11.819.27.43334Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent
66SwedenEuropeGainer+11.817.65.77884Transport Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced
68Costa RicaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+11.720.08.34549Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
69BurundiAfricaGainer+11.611.80.31313Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
70EcuadorLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+11.321.710.43737Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational
71VenezuelaLatin America and CaribbeanGainer+11.114.53.42324Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
72United KingdomEuropeGainer+11.015.34.37880Technical & Vocational Skills 15 · Advanced
73FinlandEuropeGainer+10.916.96.07683Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established
74GuineaAfricaGainer+10.816.35.41917Technical & Vocational Skills 3.5 · Nascent
75PalestineGulf and Middle EastGainer+10.512.62.11825Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
77Solomon IslandsIndo-PacificGainer+10.312.32.01616Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
76North KoreaIndo-PacificGainer+10.310.60.31619Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
78LebanonGulf and Middle EastMixed+9.911.71.82426Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
79FijiIndo-PacificMixed+9.817.57.72930Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
80VanuatuIndo-PacificMixed+9.511.82.21617Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
82SudanAfricaMixed+9.411.21.81313Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
81São Tomé & PríncipeAfricaMixed+9.411.82.51518Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
83AlgeriaAfricaMixed+9.123.714.63434Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
84CambodiaIndo-PacificMixed+8.920.811.93028Technical & Vocational Skills 5.5 · Nascent
85Guinea-BissauAfricaMixed+8.510.31.81211Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
86NetherlandsEuropeMixed+8.414.05.67683Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established
87BelgiumEuropeMixed+8.316.17.87274Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established
88DjiboutiAfricaMixed+8.112.84.71815Industrial & Sectoral Base 2.5 · Inception
89BoliviaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+8.016.38.32628Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
90Papua New GuineaIndo-PacificMixed+7.916.88.92218Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
91GermanyEuropeMixed+7.813.75.98086Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced
92EritreaAfricaMixed+7.78.00.3911Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
93ComorosAfricaMixed+7.69.52.01213Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
94AngolaAfricaMixed+7.419.912.52422Technical & Vocational Skills 4 · Nascent
95BelizeLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+7.213.26.02224Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
98Central African Rep.AfricaMixed+6.97.50.6910Investment Attraction & Projection 1.3 · Inception
97SamoaIndo-PacificMixed+6.911.95.01821Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
96BarbadosLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.913.56.63135Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
100SwitzerlandEuropeMixed+6.813.06.27586Energy Infrastructure 14 · Established
99CanadaNorth AmericaMixed+6.816.19.37677Trade Facilitation & Logistics 14.5 · Established
101SomaliaAfricaMixed+6.67.20.687Investment Attraction & Projection 1.3 · Inception
103South SudanAfricaMixed+6.56.80.387Industrial & Sectoral Base 1.3 · Inception
102NicaraguaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.515.69.12626Investment Attraction & Projection 4.3 · Nascent
104UzbekistanRussia and EurasiaMixed+6.417.511.13534Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6 · Foundational
105MauritaniaAfricaMixed+6.315.69.32017Technical & Vocational Skills 3.5 · Nascent
106SeychellesAfricaMixed+6.213.97.72833Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
109ChadAfricaMixed+6.19.43.31111Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
108MicronesiaIndo-PacificMixed+6.19.02.91314Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
107Timor-LesteIndo-PacificMixed+6.112.36.21616Industrial & Sectoral Base 2.5 · Inception
111AfghanistanSouth AsiaMixed+6.06.70.878Investment Attraction & Projection 0.7 · Inception
110PanamaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+6.021.915.94641Technical & Vocational Skills 8 · Foundational
112TajikistanRussia and EurasiaMixed+5.913.27.42224Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
114KyrgyzstanRussia and EurasiaMixed+5.812.97.12528Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent
113IranGulf and Middle EastMixed+5.817.111.33541Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
115YemenGulf and Middle EastMixed+5.75.80.188Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
117Dominican RepublicLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+5.520.314.83939Energy Infrastructure 6.9 · Foundational
116DenmarkEuropeMixed+5.512.97.46582Energy Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional
118UkraineRussia and EurasiaMixed+5.311.56.14148Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational
119GeorgiaRussia and EurasiaMixed+5.214.08.84142Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
120TongaIndo-PacificMixed+5.011.16.01618Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
121BahamasLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+4.812.07.22830Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
123KiribatiIndo-PacificMixed+4.77.32.61015Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
122BotswanaAfricaMixed+4.718.413.72836Energy Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
124SyriaGulf and Middle EastMixed+4.56.41.91011Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
125EstoniaEuropeMixed+4.312.78.45571Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
127Marshall IslandsIndo-PacificMixed+4.110.15.91514Industrial & Sectoral Base 1.8 · Inception
126CongoAfricaMixed+4.114.910.81917Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
128EswatiniAfricaMixed+3.917.113.22423Investment Attraction & Projection 4.3 · Nascent
131HaitiLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.77.94.21111Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
130MyanmarIndo-PacificMixed+3.714.010.22119Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
129SpainEuropeMixed+3.713.19.37169Technical & Vocational Skills 13.5 · Established
133GrenadaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.611.17.52225Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
132MoldovaRussia and EurasiaMixed+3.610.16.53338Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
136LaosIndo-PacificMixed+3.215.412.22321Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent
135DominicaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+3.210.77.52224Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
134Saudi ArabiaGulf and Middle EastMixed+3.220.317.15556Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
137TuvaluIndo-PacificMixed+2.87.04.21014Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
138ParaguayLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.717.314.73433Investment Attraction & Projection 6 · Foundational
140OmanGulf and Middle EastMixed+2.621.218.54444Energy Infrastructure 7.5 · Foundational
139AustriaEuropeMixed+2.611.48.76677Energy Infrastructure 11.9 · Transitional
142Saint LuciaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+2.29.27.02123Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
141PortugalEuropeMixed+2.211.99.76165Energy Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional
143BhutanSouth AsiaMixed+2.013.811.82026Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
145LuxembourgEuropeMixed+1.910.48.55266Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
144United Arab EmiratesGulf and Middle EastMixed+1.917.315.45962Technical & Vocational Skills 10 · Transitional
146NorwayEuropeMixed+1.213.512.36978Energy Infrastructure 12 · Established
147Saint Vincent & GrenadinesLatin America and CaribbeanMixed+1.19.38.22023Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception
148GreeceEuropeMixed+1.011.810.95553Technical & Vocational Skills 10 · Transitional
149IcelandEuropeMixed+0.913.112.25163Energy Infrastructure 8.8 · Foundational
150KazakhstanRussia and EurasiaMixed+0.618.017.44743Investment Attraction & Projection 8.7 · Foundational
151ArmeniaRussia and EurasiaMixed+0.411.210.73439Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent
152LatviaEuropeMixed+0.112.011.95257Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional
153HungaryEuropeMixed−0.113.213.35960Transport Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional
154RussiaRussia and EurasiaMixed−0.214.514.75654Investment Attraction & Projection 10 · Transitional
156MongoliaIndo-PacificMixed−0.318.318.63133Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
155ItalyEuropeMixed−0.311.311.56765Technical & Vocational Skills 12.5 · Established
157PalauIndo-PacificMixed−0.67.88.41517Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
158Antigua & BarbudaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−0.911.012.02425Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
159IrelandEuropeMixed−1.013.114.15973Energy Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional
161SerbiaEuropeMixed−1.212.413.64951Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9 · Transitional
160LithuaniaEuropeMixed−1.212.413.65661Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional
163MontenegroEuropeMixed−1.310.511.83538Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent
162PolandEuropeMixed−1.312.914.26263Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional
164IraqGulf and Middle EastMixed−1.413.414.82222Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
165CzechiaEuropeMixed−1.714.215.86264Trade Facilitation & Logistics 11.5 · Transitional
166CyprusEuropeMixed−2.59.211.64250Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational
167MaltaEuropeMixed−2.78.210.94456Energy Infrastructure 6.6 · Foundational
168RomaniaEuropeMixed−3.013.116.15454Investment Attraction & Projection 10 · Transitional
169SlovakiaEuropeMixed−3.212.816.15358Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9.5 · Transitional
170Trinidad & TobagoLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−3.315.919.23739Energy Infrastructure 6.3 · Foundational
171AlbaniaEuropeMixed−3.611.114.73334Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
174CubaLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−3.910.914.82635Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
173CroatiaEuropeMixed−3.910.014.04952Investment Attraction & Projection 8.7 · Foundational
172SloveniaEuropeMixed−3.911.515.55864Investment Attraction & Projection 10.7 · Transitional
175NauruIndo-PacificMixed−4.26.510.71014Industrial & Sectoral Base 1 · Inception
177Saint Kitts & NevisLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−4.59.414.02223Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
176BulgariaEuropeMixed−4.510.615.14748Investment Attraction & Projection 8.3 · Foundational
178North MacedoniaEuropeMixed−4.710.815.63840Investment Attraction & Projection 6.7 · Foundational
179AzerbaijanRussia and EurasiaMixed−5.214.019.23835Investment Attraction & Projection 6.7 · Foundational
180BelarusRussia and EurasiaMixed−6.29.715.93543Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
181GabonAfricaMixed−6.316.022.42321Technical & Vocational Skills 4 · Nascent
182LibyaAfricaMixed−6.611.317.81615Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
184Bosnia & HerzegovinaEuropeMixed−7.48.315.73232Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
183KuwaitGulf and Middle EastMixed−7.415.823.24035Technical & Vocational Skills 7 · Foundational
185KosovoEuropeMixed−7.810.117.92527Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
186BahrainGulf and Middle EastMixed−8.313.421.74143Energy Infrastructure 6.6 · Foundational
187Equatorial GuineaAfricaMixed−8.811.520.31615Technical & Vocational Skills 2.5 · Inception
188SurinameLatin America and CaribbeanMixed−8.911.620.62325Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent
189QatarGulf and Middle EastLoser−12.310.623.04848Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
190TurkmenistanRussia and EurasiaLoser−12.48.020.51920Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception
192AndorraEuropeLoser−13.34.017.22736Transport Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
191MonacoEuropeLoser−13.33.416.72841Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
193Holy SeeEuropeLoser−17.50.818.438Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0 · Inception
194LiechtensteinEuropeLoser−18.76.124.83659Transport Infrastructure 4.6 · Nascent
195BruneiIndo-PacificLoser−22.513.936.43434Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent
196GuyanaLatin America and CaribbeanLoser−26.09.935.92426Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
197San MarinoEuropeLoser−30.63.934.42338Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception

Settings of this run

Required
Transport InfrastructureEnergy InfrastructureFoundational EducationTechnical & Vocational SkillsGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationTrade Facilitation & LogisticsInvestment Attraction & ProjectionIndustrial & Sectoral Base

Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.

Adaptive
Structural Transformation & ComplexityInnovation & CommercialisationLifelong Learning & ReskillingGovernment Effectiveness & Public Administration
Gain exposure
regional exposure (40%); share of population aged under 15 (ranked) (30%); low real gdp per head (ranked) (30%).
Loss exposure
Incumbent manufacturing exporters that lose market share, and nations bypassed by investment: regional exposure (60%); industry as a share of gdp (ranked) (40%). Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does.
Likelihood
4 per cent over three years and 15 per cent over ten, as used in the opportunity index.
Download this scenario’s results (CSV)All results