Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged 65 and over; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in France’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.90 | −0.48 | −1.17 | −0.46 | 0 | 8 | Resource Infrastructure 11.4 · Transitional |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.84 | −0.47 | −1.16 | −0.47 | 0 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.8 · Established |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.81 | −0.46 | −1.26 | −0.46 | 0 | 5 | Labour & Employment 14.1 · Established |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.74 | −0.41 | −1.11 | −0.41 | 0 | 7 | Labour & Employment 14.2 · Established |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.76 | −0.40 | −1.10 | −0.40 | 0 | 3 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 15.4 · Advanced |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.72 | −0.33 | −0.87 | −0.31 | 0 | 4 | Resource Infrastructure 11.7 · Transitional |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.57 | −0.32 | −0.82 | −0.32 | 0 | 4 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 15 · Advanced |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.79 | −0.32 | −0.87 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 4 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.49 | −0.26 | −0.70 | −0.26 | 0 | 4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.3 · Established |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.58 | −0.25 | −0.59 | −0.24 | 0 | 2 | Resource Infrastructure 12.1 · Established |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.53 | −0.21 | −0.60 | −0.21 | 0 | 4 | Internal Security & Order 15.1 · Advanced |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.20 | 0 | 1 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 15.1 · Advanced |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.52 | −0.17 | −0.46 | −0.17 | 0 | 3 | Foundational Education 14.7 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.26 | −0.13 | −0.34 | −0.13 | 0 | 2 | Resource Infrastructure 12.2 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.11 | −0.67 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.63 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.64 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.61 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.68 | −0.51 | −0.70 | −0.59 | −0.33 | −0.29 |
| Pandemic | −0.49 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.59 | −0.52 | −0.55 | −0.52 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −0.52 | −0.69 | −0.59 | −0.47 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.50 | −0.58 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.52 | −0.48 | −0.47 | −0.42 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −0.54 | −0.49 | · | −0.24 | −0.51 | −0.21 | −0.41 | −0.53 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.03 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.46 | −0.55 | −0.33 | −0.38 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.66 | −0.22 | −0.49 | −0.22 | −0.55 | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.14 | · | −0.32 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.46 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.47 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.20 | · | −0.41 | · | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.39 | · | −0.37 | −0.35 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.15 | · | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.47 | −0.39 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.02 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.17 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what France is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +79.1 | 79.2 | 0.1 | 81 | 2 | Energy Technologies 15.8 · Advanced |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +61.2 | 62.0 | 0.8 | 83 | 5 | Population Health 16.3 · Advanced |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +48.1 | 48.6 | 0.4 | 82 | 3 | Internal Security & Order 15.7 · Advanced |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +41.1 | 53.0 | 12.0 | 78 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14.8 · Established |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +35.2 | 39.8 | 4.6 | 84 | 13 | Export Capability & Sophistication 16.3 · Advanced |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +19.7 | 36.1 | 16.3 | 83 | 13 | Population Health 16.3 · Advanced |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +14.3 | 18.3 | 4.0 | 80 | 11 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 · Advanced |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +13.6 | 19.2 | 5.6 | 80 | 49 | Foundational Education 15.3 · Advanced |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +3.0 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 80 | 97 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +1.4 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 82 | 89 | Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16 · Advanced |