Chokepoint closure · Results

Typical nation−0.56median change in index, points

Hardest hit−0.99Lebanon

Lose a domain band129of 197 nations

Worth of best practice+0.22mean points recovered over current plans

Where the load lands

Mean change in each capability domain across all nations.

Trade & Investment−0.89

Strategic Infrastructure−0.88

Governance & Integrity−0.88

Production & Innovation−0.70

National Security−0.64

Information & Influence−0.41

Financial Strength−0.35

Critical Technology−0.05

Human Capital0.00

What policy is worth

The 20 hardest-hit nations under three policy responses. The distance from circle to square is what current buffers absorb; from square to diamond is what best practice would add.

No responseCurrent plansBest practice

Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).

All 197 nations

Rank shift is the change in the nation’s place among all nations once every index is stressed: up means it held up better than its neighbours. The weakest point is the capability left lowest among those the scenario singles out.

Region

										Weakest point
Lebanon	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.99	4.66	3.67	−0.99	−21.3	▼ 10	27 · 3d	16%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 0.2 · Inception
Cambodia	Indo-Pacific	High 0.97	4.93	3.98	−0.94	−19.2	▼ 6	24 · 2d	18%	Resource Infrastructure 0.4 · Inception
Maldives	South Asia	High 0.98	4.62	3.69	−0.93	−20.1	▼ 6	21 · 1d	16%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Laos	Indo-Pacific	High 0.95	3.70	2.78	−0.93	−25.0	▼ 4	19 · 3d	15%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Palestine	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.90	3.72	2.83	−0.89	−24.0	▼ 5	17 · 2d	11%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Tonga	Indo-Pacific	High 0.94	3.21	2.32	−0.88	−27.6	▼ 8	14 · 3d	12%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Fiji	Indo-Pacific	High 0.94	5.16	4.29	−0.87	−17.0	▼ 8	26	20%	Resource Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
North Korea	Indo-Pacific	High 1.00	4.26	3.39	−0.87	−20.4	▼ 8	18 · 1d	25%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0.8 · Inception
Djibouti	Africa	High 0.86	3.20	2.35	−0.86	−26.7	▼ 5	21 · 3d	15%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Solomon Islands	Indo-Pacific	High 0.91	2.91	2.05	−0.86	−29.4	▼ 5	12 · 2d	12%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Nauru	Indo-Pacific	High 0.97	1.96	1.12	−0.85	−43.1	▼ 1	12 · 1d	8%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Bhutan	South Asia	High 0.90	3.93	3.09	−0.84	−21.4	▼ 8	18 · 4d	14%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Samoa	Indo-Pacific	High 0.91	3.48	2.64	−0.84	−24.2	▼ 4	19 · 5d	13%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Micronesia	Indo-Pacific	High 0.93	2.33	1.49	−0.84	−36.0	▼ 3	12	10%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Kiribati	Indo-Pacific	High 0.94	2.20	1.36	−0.84	−38.2	▼ 3	11	8%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Marshall Islands	Indo-Pacific	High 0.92	2.48	1.65	−0.83	−33.5	▼ 2	11 · 1d	10%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Vanuatu	Indo-Pacific	High 0.87	2.93	2.11	−0.82	−28.0	▼ 4	17	11%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Seychelles	Africa	High 0.85	5.27	4.46	−0.81	−15.3	▼ 3	22 · 2d	16%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Nepal	South Asia	High 0.84	4.96	4.16	−0.80	−16.2	▼ 7	21 · 1d	17%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Lesotho	Africa	High 0.83	3.43	2.63	−0.80	−23.3	▼ 3	22 · 3d	12%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception
Gambia	Africa	High 0.79	3.32	2.53	−0.79	−23.7	▼ 4	17 · 4d	11%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Jordan	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.93	7.50	6.72	−0.78	−10.4	▼ 4	18 · 1d	29%	Maritime Power 0.8 · Inception
Kosovo	Europe	High 0.80	4.70	3.92	−0.78	−16.6	▼ 5	15	15%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Malta	Europe	High 0.85	8.89	8.12	−0.77	−8.6	▼ 2	22 · 3d	24%	Resource Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception
Somalia	Africa	High 0.78	1.62	0.86	−0.77	−47.2	▼ 1	6	8%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Cyprus	Europe	High 0.85	8.51	7.75	−0.76	−8.9	▼ 2	24 · 2d	25%	Resource Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception
Namibia	Africa	High 0.81	5.95	5.20	−0.76	−12.7	▼ 5	17 · 3d	22%	Maritime Power 0.8 · Inception
Eswatini	Africa	High 0.78	3.71	2.95	−0.76	−20.5	0	19	12%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception
Palau	Indo-Pacific	High 0.84	2.84	2.08	−0.76	−26.8	▼ 1	13 · 2d	11%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Burundi	Africa	High 0.76	2.48	1.72	−0.76	−30.8	▼ 2	19 · 2d	9%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Tuvalu	Indo-Pacific	High 0.87	2.12	1.35	−0.76	−36.1	▼ 3	7	8%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Afghanistan	South Asia	High 0.84	1.46	0.70	−0.76	−52.2	▼ 1	7	6%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Bosnia & Herzegovina	Europe	High 0.80	5.80	5.05	−0.75	−12.9	▼ 6	15 · 4d	20%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Cabo Verde	Africa	High 0.79	4.72	3.97	−0.75	−16.0	▼ 5	20 · 2d	14%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Yemen	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.73	1.62	0.87	−0.75	−46.3	▼ 1	4	9%	Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
North Macedonia	Europe	High 0.83	6.61	5.87	−0.74	−11.3	0	20 · 3d	23%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Mauritania	Africa	High 0.77	3.58	2.84	−0.74	−20.7	0	13 · 2d	19%	Maritime Power 0.9 · Inception
Guinea	Africa	High 0.75	3.15	2.40	−0.74	−23.6	▼ 2	14 · 5d	15%	Maritime Power 0.1 · Inception
Luxembourg	Europe	High 0.86	10.79	10.06	−0.73	−6.8	▼ 5	16 · 4d	26%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Mauritius	Africa	High 0.79	8.08	7.35	−0.73	−9.0	▼ 2	15 · 2d	22%	Resource Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
Montenegro	Europe	High 0.81	6.35	5.62	−0.73	−11.5	▼ 5	15 · 5d	24%	Maritime Power 0.9 · Inception
Liberia	Africa	High 0.73	2.93	2.20	−0.73	−24.9	▼ 2	18 · 3d	12%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Zambia	Africa	High 0.77	4.93	4.21	−0.72	−14.5	▼ 3	17	19%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Madagascar	Africa	High 0.72	3.90	3.18	−0.72	−18.4	▼ 4	11	16%	Maritime Power 0.7 · Inception
Burkina Faso	Africa	High 0.71	3.47	2.76	−0.72	−20.6	0	19 · 3d	12%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Benin	Africa	High 0.70	4.09	3.38	−0.71	−17.4	▼ 7	14 · 1d	14%	Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception
Eritrea	Africa	High 0.69	2.01	1.30	−0.71	−35.2	▼ 1	9	9%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 0 · Inception
Sri Lanka	South Asia	High 0.82	7.25	6.55	−0.70	−9.7	▼ 7	18 · 1d	27%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 3.9 · Nascent
Mongolia	Indo-Pacific	High 0.79	5.73	5.03	−0.70	−12.3	▼ 5	12 · 2d	22%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Malawi	Africa	High 0.71	3.76	3.06	−0.70	−18.7	▼ 2	14 · 3d	12%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Mali	Africa	High 0.71	3.41	2.71	−0.70	−20.6	0	23 · 3d	13%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Botswana	Africa	High 0.74	6.08	5.39	−0.69	−11.3	▼ 2	18 · 5d	19%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Guinea-Bissau	Africa	High 0.68	2.07	1.39	−0.69	−33.1	0	14 · 1d	8%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Rwanda	Africa	High 0.73	5.95	5.27	−0.68	−11.4	▼ 3	17 · 3d	19%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Togo	Africa	High 0.68	4.05	3.37	−0.68	−16.8	▼ 7	15	15%	Maritime Power 0.3 · Inception
Grenada	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.72	4.04	3.36	−0.68	−16.9	▼ 7	12 · 2d	13%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Sierra Leone	Africa	High 0.70	3.59	2.91	−0.68	−19.1	▲ 1	16 · 4d	15%	Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception
Central African Rep.	Africa	High 0.70	1.66	0.98	−0.68	−40.9	0	5	6%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Armenia	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.73	6.65	5.99	−0.67	−10.0	0	12 · 3d	22%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Antigua & Barbuda	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.71	4.36	3.69	−0.67	−15.4	▼ 1	11 · 2d	13%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Saint Lucia	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.71	3.85	3.19	−0.67	−17.3	0	17 · 3d	13%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Saint Kitts & Nevis	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.70	3.83	3.16	−0.67	−17.4	▼ 1	15 · 4d	12%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
San Marino	Europe	High 0.74	5.03	4.37	−0.66	−13.0	0	10 · 1d	11%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Nicaragua	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.69	4.37	3.71	−0.66	−15.2	▲ 1	16 · 1d	18%	Maritime Power 1.1 · Inception
São Tomé & Príncipe	Africa	High 0.68	2.85	2.19	−0.66	−23.1	▲ 1	18 · 1d	9%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Comoros	Africa	High 0.69	2.29	1.62	−0.66	−29.0	▼ 1	14 · 2d	8%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Slovenia	Europe	High 0.84	10.48	9.82	−0.65	−6.2	0	16 · 2d	35%	Maritime Power 1.3 · Inception
Uganda	Africa	High 0.69	5.53	4.88	−0.65	−11.8	▼ 2	14 · 2d	19%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Zimbabwe	Africa	High 0.67	4.34	3.68	−0.65	−15.1	▼ 1	11 · 1d	16%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Ireland	Europe	High 0.82	12.08	11.43	−0.64	−5.3	▼ 2	23 · 2d	34%	Maritime Power 2.4 · Inception
Latvia	Europe	High 0.81	9.89	9.25	−0.64	−6.5	0	22 · 3d	33%	Resource Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Saint Vincent & Grenadines	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.68	3.76	3.12	−0.64	−16.9	▲ 1	14 · 3d	13%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Taiwan	Indo-Pacific	High 0.96	14.03	13.40	−0.63	−4.5	▼ 1	19 · 3d	45%	Alliances & Security Cooperation 7.7 · Foundational
Slovakia	Europe	High 0.82	10.10	9.47	−0.63	−6.2	▼ 1	21 · 3d	35%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Moldova	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.67	6.34	5.71	−0.63	−9.9	0	16 · 5d	19%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Bahamas	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.67	5.16	4.53	−0.63	−12.2	▼ 1	14	17%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception
Singapore	Indo-Pacific	High 1.00	15.20	14.58	−0.62	−4.1	▼ 2	16 · 3d	48%	Resource Infrastructure 7.2 · Foundational
Switzerland	Europe	High 0.83	14.73	14.11	−0.62	−4.2	▼ 2	15	35%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Lithuania	Europe	High 0.82	10.75	10.13	−0.62	−5.8	▼ 1	15	36%	Maritime Power 3.2 · Nascent
Serbia	Europe	High 0.74	8.97	8.35	−0.62	−6.9	▼ 2	18 · 3d	30%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Ethiopia	Africa	High 0.66	5.70	5.08	−0.62	−10.8	0	23 · 3d	20%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
El Salvador	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.66	5.68	5.05	−0.62	−11.0	▼ 1	21 · 5d	20%	Maritime Power 1.2 · Inception
Dominica	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.67	3.87	3.25	−0.62	−16.0	0	14 · 2d	12%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Iceland	Europe	High 0.77	9.63	9.02	−0.61	−6.3	▼ 4	21 · 2d	32%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0.6 · Inception
Georgia	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.70	7.55	6.94	−0.61	−8.0	▼ 2	21 · 1d	27%	Maritime Power 1.5 · Inception
Andorra	Europe	High 0.70	5.15	4.54	−0.61	−11.8	▲ 2	13	12%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Honduras	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.64	5.05	4.44	−0.61	−12.2	▲ 1	23 · 4d	19%	Maritime Power 1.2 · Inception
Bulgaria	Europe	High 0.80	8.95	8.36	−0.60	−6.7	0	14 · 3d	37%	Maritime Power 4.5 · Nascent
Paraguay	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.63	5.79	5.18	−0.60	−10.4	▲ 1	19 · 3d	19%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Belize	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.61	4.03	3.43	−0.60	−14.8	▲ 1	12	15%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception
Czechia	Europe	High 0.81	11.51	10.92	−0.59	−5.2	▼ 3	12 · 3d	37%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Kenya	Africa	High 0.67	7.18	6.59	−0.59	−8.2	▼ 4	18	25%	Maritime Power 2 · Inception
Senegal	Africa	High 0.68	6.42	5.83	−0.59	−9.2	0	23 · 1d	26%	Maritime Power 3.3 · Nascent
Jamaica	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.64	6.24	5.66	−0.59	−9.4	▼ 2	16 · 3d	22%	Maritime Power 1.3 · Inception
Tajikistan	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.61	4.01	3.42	−0.59	−14.6	▲ 1	17 · 1d	17%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Austria	Europe	High 0.78	12.81	12.22	−0.58	−4.6	▼ 1	23 · 3d	35%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Hungary	Europe	High 0.75	10.51	9.94	−0.57	−5.4	0	22 · 1d	34%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Panama	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.65	7.17	6.60	−0.57	−8.0	▼ 2	11 · 2d	25%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1 · Inception
Belgium	Europe	High 0.84	13.46	12.90	−0.56	−4.2	0	24 · 2d	45%	Maritime Power 6.4 · Foundational
Morocco	Africa	High 0.76	9.36	8.80	−0.56	−6.0	▼ 2	12 · 2d	38%	Maritime Power 6.8 · Foundational
Costa Rica	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.63	7.76	7.20	−0.56	−7.3	▼ 2	17 · 4d	23%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception
Bangladesh	South Asia	High 0.67	6.73	6.17	−0.56	−8.3	▼ 1	20	30%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 4.9 · Nascent
Kyrgyzstan	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.59	4.77	4.21	−0.56	−11.6	▼ 2	16 · 1d	18%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Haiti	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.56	2.03	1.47	−0.56	−27.6	▲ 2	5	7%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Thailand	Indo-Pacific	High 0.80	10.70	10.15	−0.55	−5.1	▲ 1	17 · 2d	42%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 8.3 · Foundational
Belarus	Russia and Eurasia	High 0.65	6.90	6.35	−0.55	−8.0	▼ 3	19 · 3d	29%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Monaco	Europe	High 0.60	5.91	5.37	−0.55	−9.3	▲ 2	14 · 1d	15%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Croatia	Europe	High 0.72	9.53	8.99	−0.54	−5.7	▼ 4	19 · 3d	36%	Maritime Power 4.9 · Nascent
Philippines	Indo-Pacific	High 0.73	8.83	8.29	−0.54	−6.1	0	16 · 3d	38%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 6.5 · Foundational
Dominican Republic	Latin America and Caribbean	High 0.60	6.82	6.28	−0.54	−8.0	▼ 3	17 · 2d	24%	Maritime Power 2.1 · Inception
DR Congo	Africa	Medium 0.53	2.87	2.33	−0.54	−18.7	▲ 3	18 · 3d	15%	Maritime Power 0.1 · Inception
Portugal	Europe	High 0.77	11.68	11.15	−0.53	−4.6	0	14 · 4d	42%	Resource Infrastructure 6.9 · Foundational
Liechtenstein	Europe	High 0.60	7.22	6.69	−0.53	−7.3	▼ 1	13 · 4d	14%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Guatemala	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.57	5.67	5.14	−0.53	−9.3	▲ 3	16 · 3d	22%	Maritime Power 1.7 · Inception
Tunisia	Africa	High 0.61	7.71	7.20	−0.52	−6.7	0	17 · 1d	29%	Maritime Power 3.9 · Nascent
Greece	Europe	High 0.77	10.61	10.10	−0.51	−4.8	0	15	44%	Resource Infrastructure 8.7 · Foundational
Vietnam	Indo-Pacific	High 0.73	9.68	9.17	−0.51	−5.3	▼ 1	15 · 1d	41%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 8 · Foundational
Uruguay	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.60	8.54	8.03	−0.51	−6.0	0	16 · 2d	28%	Maritime Power 3 · Inception
Syria	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.48	2.22	1.72	−0.50	−22.5	▲ 4	13 · 2d	12%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 0 · Inception
Poland	Europe	High 0.75	12.39	11.92	−0.48	−3.8	▼ 1	11	46%	Maritime Power 7.5 · Foundational
Türkiye	Gulf and Middle East	High 0.83	12.18	11.70	−0.48	−4.0	0	14 · 2d	52%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 10.1 · Transitional
South Africa	Africa	High 0.68	10.77	10.29	−0.48	−4.5	▲ 1	16 · 1d	41%	Maritime Power 6.5 · Foundational
Pakistan	South Asia	High 0.65	7.96	7.48	−0.48	−6.0	▲ 1	14 · 2d	38%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 5.5 · Nascent
Barbados	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.50	5.56	5.07	−0.48	−8.7	▲ 3	10 · 2d	17%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception
South Korea	Indo-Pacific	High 0.92	16.00	15.53	−0.47	−3.0	0	12	57%	Resource Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional
Tanzania	Africa	Medium 0.52	5.82	5.36	−0.47	−8.0	▲ 2	11 · 1d	24%	Maritime Power 2.6 · Inception
Brunei	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.52	5.60	5.15	−0.45	−8.0	▲ 5	14 · 1d	27%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 2 · Inception
Sudan	Africa	Medium 0.43	2.61	2.16	−0.45	−17.1	▲ 3	10 · 1d	13%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 0.2 · Inception
Sweden	Europe	High 0.80	15.30	14.86	−0.44	−2.9	▼ 1	12	53%	Resource Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional
Finland	Europe	High 0.75	14.52	14.08	−0.44	−3.0	▼ 1	14 · 1d	51%	Resource Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
Timor-Leste	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.44	2.98	2.54	−0.44	−14.8	▲ 4	11 · 2d	13%	Maritime Power 0.6 · Inception
New Zealand	Indo-Pacific	High 0.66	12.83	12.40	−0.43	−3.3	0	17	45%	Maritime Power 7.7 · Foundational
Estonia	Europe	Medium 0.58	11.49	11.05	−0.43	−3.8	0	12 · 2d	37%	Maritime Power 4.9 · Nascent
Bahrain	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.53	7.32	6.89	−0.43	−5.9	▲ 1	17	31%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 3.9 · Nascent
South Sudan	Africa	Medium 0.40	1.38	0.96	−0.42	−30.2	▲ 3	4	8%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Albania	Europe	Medium 0.45	6.13	5.73	−0.41	−6.6	▲ 3	8 · 5d	24%	Maritime Power 1.7 · Inception
Netherlands	Europe	High 0.76	15.50	15.09	−0.40	−2.6	0	8 · 1d	56%	Resource Infrastructure 12 · Transitional
Spain	Europe	High 0.73	13.78	13.38	−0.40	−2.9	0	12	53%	Resource Infrastructure 11 · Transitional
Italy	Europe	High 0.70	13.72	13.32	−0.40	−2.9	0	12 · 1d	53%	Resource Infrastructure 11 · Transitional
India	South Asia	High 0.70	12.61	12.21	−0.40	−3.2	▼ 1	10	52%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.4 · Transitional
Chile	Latin America and Caribbean	Medium 0.59	10.61	10.22	−0.40	−3.7	▲ 4	8 · 1d	43%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 7.8 · Foundational
Côte d'Ivoire	Africa	Medium 0.43	5.42	5.02	−0.40	−7.3	▲ 1	14 · 2d	23%	Maritime Power 1.7 · Inception
Germany	Europe	High 0.73	16.36	15.97	−0.39	−2.4	0	11	55%	Maritime Power 11.5 · Transitional
Japan	Indo-Pacific	High 0.83	16.26	15.87	−0.39	−2.4	0	8	60%	Resource Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
Papua New Guinea	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.42	3.80	3.41	−0.39	−10.3	▲ 8	8	21%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1.8 · Inception
Libya	Africa	Medium 0.39	3.01	2.62	−0.39	−12.9	▲ 4	15	16%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1.5 · Inception
Kuwait	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.48	7.51	7.13	−0.38	−5.0	0	9 · 1d	33%	Maritime Power 4.3 · Nascent
Iraq	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.43	4.69	4.31	−0.38	−8.2	▲ 5	13 · 1d	24%	Maritime Power 2.3 · Inception
Myanmar	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.41	3.89	3.50	−0.38	−9.9	▲ 8	10 · 1d	21%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 2.7 · Inception
Denmark	Europe	Medium 0.56	13.94	13.59	−0.36	−2.6	▲ 1	13 · 1d	46%	Resource Infrastructure 8.8 · Foundational
Oman	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.50	8.03	7.66	−0.36	−4.5	▲ 1	10 · 1d	38%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 6.2 · Foundational
Holy See	Europe	High 0.60	1.85	1.48	−0.36	−19.7	▲ 6	4 · 1d	5%	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Malaysia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.52	11.48	11.14	−0.35	−3.0	▲ 2	8	44%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 9.1 · Transitional
Romania	Europe	Medium 0.49	10.16	9.81	−0.35	−3.4	0	9	41%	Maritime Power 6.1 · Foundational
Ukraine	Russia and Eurasia	Medium 0.50	9.40	9.05	−0.35	−3.8	0	12	40%	Maritime Power 5.9 · Nascent
United Arab Emirates	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.54	11.94	11.60	−0.34	−2.8	0	13 · 1d	47%	Maritime Power 8.4 · Foundational
Qatar	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.47	9.39	9.05	−0.34	−3.6	▲ 2	6	39%	Maritime Power 5.6 · Nascent
Niger	Africa	Low 0.34	3.07	2.74	−0.34	−10.9	▲ 7	10 · 1d	14%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
France	Europe	High 0.72	16.64	16.31	−0.33	−2.0	0	4	62%	Resource Infrastructure 11.7 · Transitional
Israel	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.53	14.46	14.12	−0.33	−2.3	▲ 2	16	48%	Resource Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional
Suriname	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.34	4.04	3.70	−0.33	−8.2	▲ 8	12	17%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0.7 · Inception
Gabon	Africa	Low 0.34	3.94	3.62	−0.32	−8.1	▲ 6	6	20%	Maritime Power 1.9 · Inception
Mozambique	Africa	Low 0.33	4.12	3.81	−0.31	−7.4	▲ 6	11	21%	Maritime Power 2 · Inception
Congo	Africa	Low 0.30	3.19	2.89	−0.30	−9.3	▲ 10	12 · 1d	16%	Maritime Power 1 · Inception
United Kingdom	Europe	High 0.62	16.45	16.17	−0.29	−1.7	0	8	61%	Resource Infrastructure 13.5 · Established
Indonesia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.43	9.97	9.68	−0.29	−2.9	▲ 1	7	44%	Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
Egypt	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.43	8.98	8.69	−0.29	−3.2	0	10	43%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 7.6 · Foundational
China	China	High 0.63	15.64	15.37	−0.28	−1.8	0	8	64%	National Resilience & Crisis Management 14.1 · Established
Iran	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.39	8.17	7.89	−0.28	−3.4	0	7	40%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 7 · Foundational
Cuba	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.31	5.95	5.67	−0.28	−4.6	▲ 5	8	26%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 3.3 · Nascent
Equatorial Guinea	Africa	Low 0.27	2.80	2.53	−0.27	−9.6	▲ 9	9 · 1d	16%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1.3 · Inception
Uzbekistan	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.30	5.92	5.66	−0.26	−4.4	▲ 5	10 · 2d	24%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Angola	Africa	Low 0.29	4.60	4.34	−0.26	−5.7	▲ 9	7 · 1d	24%	Maritime Power 3.1 · Nascent
Saudi Arabia	Gulf and Middle East	Medium 0.40	11.19	10.94	−0.25	−2.2	▲ 1	9 · 1d	47%	Energy Infrastructure 9 · Foundational
Chad	Africa	Low 0.24	2.26	2.01	−0.25	−11.0	▲ 4	8 · 2d	11%	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Ghana	Africa	Low 0.28	6.98	6.75	−0.23	−3.4	▲ 4	7	29%	Maritime Power 3.2 · Nascent
Guyana	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.24	4.53	4.30	−0.23	−5.1	▲ 9	6	20%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1.8 · Inception
Nigeria	Africa	Low 0.27	7.43	7.21	−0.22	−2.9	▲ 5	9	33%	Maritime Power 5.7 · Nascent
Cameroon	Africa	Low 0.22	4.39	4.18	−0.21	−4.9	▲ 6	10 · 1d	19%	Maritime Power 2.5 · Inception
Australia	Indo-Pacific	Medium 0.39	14.95	14.76	−0.18	−1.2	▲ 1	7	60%	Energy Infrastructure 12.8 · Established
Algeria	Africa	Low 0.24	6.96	6.78	−0.18	−2.6	▲ 6	4	36%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6.5 · Foundational
Peru	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	8.61	8.44	−0.17	−2.0	▲ 4	8	37%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 6.7 · Foundational
Azerbaijan	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.21	6.79	6.63	−0.17	−2.5	▲ 5	5	32%	Maritime Power 3.6 · Nascent
Trinidad & Tobago	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.20	6.69	6.52	−0.17	−2.6	▲ 3	11	27%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 2.6 · Inception
Venezuela	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.19	4.55	4.39	−0.17	−3.7	▲ 12	11	24%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 2.6 · Inception
Norway	Europe	Low 0.31	14.62	14.46	−0.16	−1.1	▲ 1	6 · 1d	56%	Energy Infrastructure 11.6 · Transitional
Mexico	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.23	10.85	10.69	−0.16	−1.4	0	8	43%	Maritime Power 7.9 · Foundational
Bolivia	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.15	5.11	4.97	−0.14	−2.7	▲ 5	6	21%	Maritime Power 0.4 · Inception
Ecuador	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.16	6.76	6.62	−0.13	−2.0	▲ 5	7	30%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 5.2 · Nascent
Kazakhstan	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.16	8.14	8.02	−0.12	−1.5	▲ 2	7 · 1d	35%	Maritime Power 2.7 · Inception
Turkmenistan	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.11	3.55	3.44	−0.11	−3.1	▲ 19	5 · 2d	19%	Maritime Power 2 · Inception
Canada	North America	Low 0.18	15.06	14.97	−0.09	−0.6	▲ 2	6	58%	Maritime Power 11 · Transitional
Argentina	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.11	9.25	9.17	−0.08	−0.9	▲ 6	7	40%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 6.5 · Foundational
Colombia	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.12	9.11	9.03	−0.08	−0.9	▲ 3	9	40%	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 8.1 · Foundational
Brazil	Latin America and Caribbean	Low 0.12	11.69	11.62	−0.07	−0.6	▲ 2	8	50%	Economic Leverage & Dependence 11.2 · Transitional
Russia	Russia and Eurasia	Low 0.12	12.30	12.24	−0.06	−0.5	▲ 3	4	57%	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 11.8 · Transitional
United States	North America	Low 0.11	18.03	17.99	−0.04	−0.2	0	4 · 1d	70%	Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.7 · Advanced

Settings of this run

Load: 10 capability groups singled out, 55 loaded in all, of 73. A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band. A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.
Singled out: Resource InfrastructureHighEnergy InfrastructureHighTransport InfrastructureHighJoint Command, Projection & SustainmentHighMaritime PowerHighAlliances & Security CooperationMediumGovernment Effectiveness & Public AdministrationHighNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementHighTrade Facilitation & LogisticsHighEconomic Leverage & DependenceHigh
Buffers: Energy InfrastructureResource InfrastructureMaritime PowerNational Resilience & Crisis ManagementAlliances & Security Cooperation
Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.
Exposure: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production (45%); regional exposure (35%); trade in goods and services relative to gdp (ranked) (20%). Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.
Likelihood: 22 per cent over three years and 40 per cent over ten, as used in the vulnerability index.

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Maritime chokepoint closure

Change in index, by region

Does capability protect?

Where the load lands

What policy is worth

All 197 nations

Settings of this run