Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years11.9rank 134 of 197 · 3 years: 12.3
Worst case−9.6%Pandemic · tail −8.6%
Opportunity · 10 years+4.9rank 66 of 197 · 3 years: +5.1
Best case+30100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 3 of 10
Shock absorbed37%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.67expected index points from best practice
Breadth10 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; refugees hosted per head of population; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Bulgaria’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Pandemic S14−0.86
Energy supply shock S09−0.76
AI diffusion shock S13−0.70
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.67
Chokepoint closure S05−0.60
Global financial crisis S03−0.59
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.55
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.47
Hybrid campaign S06−0.38
Disaster in the core S10−0.34
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.27
Mass displacement S08−0.27
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.19
Food and water shock S11−0.19
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.86 | −0.86 | −1.33 | −0.58 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.9 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.92 | −0.76 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Energy Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.79 | −0.70 | −1.09 | −0.47 | 0 | 20 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.72 | −0.67 | −1.04 | −0.45 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3 · Nascent |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.80 | −0.60 | −0.95 | −0.41 | 0 | 14 | Maritime Power 4.5 · Nascent |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.66 | −0.59 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Investment Attraction & Projection 7.1 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.60 | −0.55 | −0.85 | −0.37 | 0 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.73 | −0.47 | −0.74 | −0.32 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.4 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.52 | −0.38 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.9 · Nascent |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.53 | −0.34 | −0.58 | −0.25 | 0 | 11 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.9 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.42 | −0.27 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.2 · Foundational |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.54 | −0.27 | −0.47 | −0.21 | 0 | 7 | Internal Security & Order 9.4 · Transitional |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.21 | −0.19 | −0.31 | −0.13 | ▲ 5 | 8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8 · Foundational |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.23 | −0.19 | −0.31 | −0.13 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.6 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | −0.92 | −0.46 | −0.38 | −1.11 | −0.97 | −1.04 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.18 | −1.07 | −0.40 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.00 | −1.19 | −1.14 | −1.02 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.92 | −0.38 | −0.34 | −1.02 | −0.77 | −1.05 | −0.89 | −0.49 | −0.44 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.84 | −0.98 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.87 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −0.70 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −0.98 | −0.83 | · | −0.44 | −0.94 | −0.38 | −0.75 | −0.97 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −0.74 | −0.99 | −0.85 | −0.68 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.70 | −0.29 | −0.26 | · | −0.68 | −0.66 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −1.01 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.91 | −0.25 | −0.32 | −0.39 | · | −0.79 | · | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.28 | −0.62 | −0.67 | · | −0.69 | −0.64 | · | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.70 | −0.21 | −0.52 | −0.23 | −0.58 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.20 | · | −0.39 | −0.20 | −0.46 | −0.64 | −0.52 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.28 | −0.21 | −0.57 | −0.47 | −0.64 | −0.27 | −0.03 | · |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.27 | −0.33 | −0.20 | −0.22 |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.21 | −0.24 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Bulgaria is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+29.5
Energy abundance S16+25.6
Middle East settlement S21+20.2
Great-power détente S18+8.9
Digital state leapfrog S23+0.1
Yield revolution S22−3.5
Emerging-market breakout S20−4.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−5.5
Sovereign debt reset S19−6.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−11.2
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +29.5 | 32.0 | 2.5 | 40 | 43 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +25.6 | 37.2 | 11.5 | 38 | 43 | Energy Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +20.2 | 27.5 | 7.3 | 47 | 49 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +8.9 | 23.6 | 14.7 | 43 | 62 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8 · Foundational |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +0.1 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 38 | 76 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −3.5 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 42 | 120 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −4.5 | 10.6 | 15.1 | 47 | 176 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8.3 · Foundational |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | −5.5 | 19.8 | 25.3 | 30 | 55 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −6.3 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 52 | 187 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −11.2 | 25.3 | 36.4 | 42 | 132 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |