Scenarios by regional exposure

Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.

Exposure	Scenario	Family	Rationale	L2y	Nat	Priority	Rank
High	Global financial crisis S03	Economic and trade	Banks, CRE, fiscal space	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	1
High	Single-supplier cut-off S02	Economic and trade	Automotive, machinery, generic medicines	5Highly likelyHighly likely	4SevereSevere	20	3
High	Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Economic and trade	Export-dependent, caught between blocs	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	16	5
High	Energy supply shock S09	Energy, climate and resources	Gas import dependence	4LikelyLikely	4SevereSevere	16	6
High	Pandemic S14	Health	—	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	8
High	Superintelligence takeoff S15	Technology and infrastructure	Dependence without a frontier project; regulation as its main lever	3PossiblePossible	5TransformativeTransformative	15	Library
High	Energy abundance S16	Energy, climate and resources	Importer windfall; heavy industry may still leave for cheaper power	3PossiblePossible	5TransformativeTransformative	15	Library
High	AI diffusion shock S13	Technology and infrastructure	Dependence without domestic frontier providers	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	7
High	Hybrid campaign S06	Geopolitical and security	The active theatre	4LikelyLikely	3SignificantSignificant	12	Library
High	Mass displacement S08	Geopolitical and security	Ukraine, Middle East, Africa routes	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	Library
High	Biomedical breakthroughs S17	Health	Ageing populations gain health and face pension strain	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	Great-power détente S18	Geopolitical and security	Security settlement on its border; defence build-up and energy policy both reopened	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
High	100-day pandemic defence S24	Health	Manufacturing and regulation at speed	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
Medium	Chokepoint closure S05	Geopolitical and security	Jet fuel, LNG, Suez trade	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	2
Medium	Legitimacy crisis S07	Geopolitical and security	Romania, Georgia, Serbia precedents	4LikelyLikely	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	20	4
Medium	Disaster in the core S10	Energy, climate and resources	Floods, heat	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	Library
Medium	Infrastructure collapse S12	Technology and infrastructure	Interconnected but exposed to sabotage and renewables integration	3PossiblePossible	4SevereSevere	12	Library
Medium	Emerging-market breakout S20	Economic and trade	Incumbent exporters lose share; firms gain markets	3PossiblePossible	4MajorMajor	12	Library
Medium	Middle East settlement S21	Geopolitical and security	Lower energy risk and a new corridor to India	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
Low	Digital state leapfrog S23	Technology and infrastructure	Already digitised; an exporter of the model	4LikelyLikely	4MajorMajor	16	Library
Low	Food and water shock S11	Energy, climate and resources	Medium for water stress in the south	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	9
Low	Sovereign funding crisis S04	Economic and trade	Medium for highly indebted members	3PossiblePossible	5CatastrophicCatastrophic	15	10
Low	Sovereign debt reset S19	Economic and trade	Creditor; London law and the Paris Club	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library
Low	Yield revolution S22	Energy, climate and resources	Slower regulation; modest price gain for consumers	2UnlikelyUnlikely	4MajorMajor	8	Library

Regional loading profile

Of the 6 ranked scenarios to which Europe is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.

Government effectiveness Soft

6 High · 0 Med

Industry, trade and supply Economic

5 High · 1 Med

Macro-financial Economic

5 High · 0 Med

Critical technology Hard

4 High · 1 Med

Influence and cohesion Soft

4 High · 1 Med

Human capital Soft

3 High · 2 Med

Strategic infrastructure Hard

1 High · 4 Med

Energy and resources Economic

1 High · 3 Med

Defence and security Hard

0 High · 6 Med