Scenarios by regional exposure
Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.
| Exposure | Scenario | Family | Rationale | L2y | Nat | Priority | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Energy abundance S16 | Energy, climate and resources | Budget dependence on oil and gas; a second 1986 | 3PossiblePossible | 5TransformativeTransformative | 15 | Library |
| High | Great-power détente S18 | Geopolitical and security | Sanctions relief in stages; the terms of a Ukraine settlement | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Global financial crisis S03 | Economic and trade | — | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 1 |
| Medium | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Economic and trade | — | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 20 | 3 |
| Medium | Legitimacy crisis S07 | Geopolitical and security | Georgia, Armenia, Belarus | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 4 |
| Medium | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Economic and trade | Already partly decoupled | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere | 16 | 5 |
| Medium | Digital state leapfrog S23 | Technology and infrastructure | State-led systems with weaker safeguards | 4LikelyLikely | 4MajorMajor | 16 | Library |
| Medium | Pandemic S14 | Health | — | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 8 |
| Medium | Food and water shock S11 | Energy, climate and resources | Central Asian water; exporter windfalls | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 9 |
| Medium | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Economic and trade | Sanctions variant | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 10 |
| Medium | Disaster in the core S10 | Energy, climate and resources | Central Asian seismic; wildfire | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | Library |
| Medium | Superintelligence takeoff S15 | Technology and infrastructure | Cut off from frontier chips; military implications dominate | 3PossiblePossible | 5TransformativeTransformative | 15 | Library |
| Medium | AI diffusion shock S13 | Technology and infrastructure | — | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | 7 |
| Medium | Hybrid campaign S06 | Geopolitical and security | Ukraine's strikes; Moldova, Georgia, Armenia as targets | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Mass displacement S08 | Geopolitical and security | — | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Infrastructure collapse S12 | Technology and infrastructure | Ukraine under attack | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Biomedical breakthroughs S17 | Health | High cardiovascular mortality; access constrained | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | 100-day pandemic defence S24 | Health | Partly outside the sharing network | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Middle East settlement S21 | Geopolitical and security | Russia loses price support and arms sales; Caucasus transit gains | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
| Medium | Yield revolution S22 | Energy, climate and resources | Russia and Ukraine lose export leverage | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
| Low | Chokepoint closure S05 | Geopolitical and security | Beneficiary on price | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 2 |
| Low | Energy supply shock S09 | Energy, climate and resources | Windfall | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere | 16 | 6 |
| Low | Emerging-market breakout S20 | Economic and trade | Commodity demand without the investment | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Low | Sovereign debt reset S19 | Economic and trade | Little direct exposure | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
Regional loading profile
Of the 0 ranked scenarios to which Russia and Eurasia is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.
No ranked scenario rates Russia and Eurasia at High exposure. Across all ten ranked scenarios, the domains loaded High most often are government effectiveness (10), industry, trade and supply (8), influence and cohesion (7).