Scenarios by regional exposure
Ordered by exposure, then by priority score. Exposure is a regional judgement; nation-level results arrive when the Atlas connects.
| Exposure | Scenario | Family | Rationale | L2y | Nat | Priority | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Chokepoint closure S05 | Geopolitical and security | Exports stop; fiscal collapse for some | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 2 |
| High | Food and water shock S11 | Energy, climate and resources | Import dependence above 80 per cent for staples; Nile, Tigris–Euphrates | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 9 |
| High | Energy abundance S16 | Energy, climate and resources | Revenue collapse for exporters without buffers; low-cost producers outlast the rest | 3PossiblePossible | 5TransformativeTransformative | 15 | Library |
| High | Mass displacement S08 | Geopolitical and security | Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Gaza | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | Library |
| High | Middle East settlement S21 | Geopolitical and security | The parties to the settlement; reconstruction and normalisation | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
| High | Yield revolution S22 | Energy, climate and resources | Import dependence above 80 per cent for staples | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
| Medium | Global financial crisis S03 | Economic and trade | Oil demand, sovereign wealth buffers | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 1 |
| Medium | Legitimacy crisis S07 | Geopolitical and security | — | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 20 | 4 |
| Medium | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Economic and trade | Energy demand and alignment pressure | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere | 16 | 5 |
| Medium | Digital state leapfrog S23 | Technology and infrastructure | State capacity and capital; Gulf digital government | 4LikelyLikely | 4MajorMajor | 16 | Library |
| Medium | Pandemic S14 | Health | Capital; migrant workforce | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 8 |
| Medium | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Economic and trade | Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | 10 |
| Medium | Disaster in the core S10 | Energy, climate and resources | Heat, flash floods, Türkiye and Iran seismic | 3PossiblePossible | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 15 | Library |
| Medium | Superintelligence takeoff S15 | Technology and infrastructure | Energy and capital to host compute; a seat bought, not built | 3PossiblePossible | 5TransformativeTransformative | 15 | Library |
| Medium | AI diffusion shock S13 | Technology and infrastructure | Importers with capital | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | 7 |
| Medium | Hybrid campaign S06 | Geopolitical and security | Proxy and drone warfare | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Infrastructure collapse S12 | Technology and infrastructure | Desalination dependence | 3PossiblePossible | 4SevereSevere | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Biomedical breakthroughs S17 | Health | High diabetes prevalence; capacity to pay | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Great-power détente S18 | Geopolitical and security | Lower risk premia; less room to play the powers against each other | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Emerging-market breakout S20 | Economic and trade | Capital and energy supplier to the growing economies | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | 100-day pandemic defence S24 | Health | Capital to buy; a mobile workforce | 3PossiblePossible | 4MajorMajor | 12 | Library |
| Medium | Sovereign debt reset S19 | Economic and trade | Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon as debtors; Gulf states as creditors | 2UnlikelyUnlikely | 4MajorMajor | 8 | Library |
| Low | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Economic and trade | — | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 20 | 3 |
| Low | Energy supply shock S09 | Energy, climate and resources | Windfall; except conflict parties | 4LikelyLikely | 4SevereSevere | 16 | 6 |
Regional loading profile
Of the 2 ranked scenarios to which Gulf and Middle East is rated High exposure, the number that load each working domain High (dark) or Medium (grey). A count of loading tables, not a computed result.