Library versions follow semantic versioning: patch for wording and anchors, minor for parameter or loading changes, major for scenario additions, retirements or scale changes. Edition pages are frozen at release; corrections are published as errata, not silent edits.
Results
Second run · 3 October 2026
- Exposure now set nation by nation, from 25 indicators drawn from the 2025 World Factbook blended with each scenario’s regional exposure. The first run applied one exposure to every nation in a region.
- Capture test extended to the five new upside scenarios; gain and loss exposure taken from indicators where one fits.
- Two composite indices added: a vulnerability index (expected loss, likelihood-weighted) with worst case and tail beside it, and an opportunity index. Both are computed at three and ten years.
- Further measures added for each nation: breadth, shock absorbed, policy dividend and weakest link, and a placing in one of four groups.
- Seven archetypes added: nations grouped by clustering on their results in all 24 scenarios, each named and described.
First run · 3 October 2026
- Load test run on the fourteen downside scenarios and capture test on the five upside scenarios, for 197 nations, against capability scores from the GINC National Capability Index 2026.
- Results published by scenario and by nation, with settings and downloads. The run is illustrative: scores are candidate ratings and exposure is set by region.
- The break-point test has not been run.
Trends
GINC 250 v1.0.0 · 3 October 2026
- The trend list was reviewed as a whole and re-cut as the GINC 250. Individual trends no longer carry a source.
- Cut 12 trends too narrow to bear on national capability, among them pet economy, cannabis, hyperloop and supersonic travel.
- Merged near-duplicates: 100 earlier trends folded into 43, for example 5G with 6G, four alternative-protein trends into one, and blockchain, digital assets and cryptocurrencies into crypto-assets and tokenisation.
- Added 69 trends, weighted to the thinner capability domains: information and influence, governance and integrity, trade and investment, and national security.
- Every trend’s primary capability domain reviewed. Domains now hold between 25 and 34 trends each.
- Similarity recalculated with a new component for likeness of names and descriptions, and stricter levels. Sensitivity and network measures recomputed.
- Starting lists drawn on: the Barclays 2035 Thematic Roadmap, the WEF Global Risks Report 2026, and themes from schools of government and international affairs institutes.
v0.4.0 · 3 October 2026
- GINC Trends list extended from 183 to 250 trends: 11 chronic risks from the WEF Global Risks Report, 29 themes from schools of government and international affairs institutes, and 27 further trends from the scenarios.
- Eighteen of the new trends are broken out from broader ones, among them artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, deglobalisation, ageing population and renewable energy.
- Every trend assigned to one of the nine domains of the National Capability Framework.
- Similarity formula now counts a shared capability domain. Sensitivity and network measures recomputed.
Library
v0.4.0 · 3 October 2026
- Five further upside scenarios added, one in each family: emerging-market growth breakout (S20), Middle East regional settlement (S21), agricultural yield revolution (S22), digital public infrastructure leapfrog (S23), hundred-day pandemic defence (S24).
- The Library now holds 24 scenarios: 14 downside and 10 upside. Every trend in the GINC 250 is scored against the five new scenarios.
v0.3.0 · 3 October 2026
- Five upside scenarios added, one in each family: superintelligence takeoff (S15), energy abundance breakthrough (S16), biomedical breakthrough wave (S17), great-power détente and peace dividend (S18), coordinated sovereign debt reset (S19).
- Every scenario now carries an orientation, downside or upside. Upside scenarios also state who gains and who loses.
- Upside scenarios are rated on the same scales and are not ranked in Edition 2027.
- GINC Trends list added: 183 trends (150 from the Barclays 2035 Thematic Roadmap, 33 added from the scenarios), each scored against every scenario on a seven-point rubric, with derived trend similarity, sensitivity and network measures.
v0.2.0 · 2 October 2026
- Fourteen scenarios in five families entered with provisional GINC desk scores.
- Added: global financial crisis (S03), hybrid campaign by a hostile state (S06), mass displacement shock (S08).
- Widened: single-supplier cut-off (S02) from minerals and chips to any input with a supplier share above 40 per cent; catastrophic disaster in the core (S10) from climate to seismic hazards.
- Reworked: political legitimacy crisis (S07) to include the internal-order dimension; critical infrastructure collapse (S12) reframed around power.
- Split: food and water system shock (S11) from the climate scenario.
- Recovery horizon split from duration as a tenth common slider.
- Added an overview block to every scenario: six lenses (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental) and nine regions, as GINC desk summaries of the record.
- Parked, not in the Library: extreme space weather; chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear incident.
Edition 2027
Development build · 2 October 2026
- Provisional ranking by priority score with the published tie-break rules.
- Judgement recorded: S04 takes the tenth place over S10 on the current debt-distress and aid-withdrawal context.
- Judgement recorded: S13 is ranked seventh as drafted; the published arithmetic gives a priority of 12 rather than 16. Referred to the review committee.
- Headline findings are placeholders.