1Placeholder
The two highest-priority shocks are economic and maritime, and both struck in 2025–2026.
Likelihood and impact
Each scenario is rated at Standard Severe. Likelihood is global; impact is shown on the systemic scale or for a typical highly exposed nation. Bands carry their probability ranges; hover or focus a scenario for its scorecard. Open the matrix with filters.
A Economic and tradeB Geopolitical and securityC Energy, climate and resourcesD Technology and infrastructureE HealthHollow marker: in Library, not ranked in 2027↗ Upside scenario
The ranked ten
Provisional ranking by priority score with the published tie-break rules. This is the development default; the panel's results replace it before release. Priority is L2y × max(systemic impact, national impact); this arithmetic exists for development and transparency; it does not bind the Edition.
| Movement | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global financial crisis S03 | A Economic and trade | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | medium | 20 Tier I | new |
| 2 | Chokepoint closure S05 | B Geopolitical and security | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | high | 20 Tier I | new |
| 3 | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | A Economic and trade | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 3SignificantSignificant | 4SevereSevere | high | 20 Tier I | new |
| 4 | Legitimacy crisis S07 | B Geopolitical and security | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 2ModerateModerate | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | medium | 20 Tier I | new |
| 5 | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | A Economic and trade | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 4SevereSevere | high | 16 Tier I | new |
| 6 | Energy supply shock S09 | C Energy, climate and resources | 4LikelyLikely | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 4SevereSevere | high | 16 Tier I | new |
| 7 | AI diffusion shock S13 | D Technology and infrastructure | 3PossiblePossible | 5Highly likelyHighly likely | 4SevereSevere | 4SevereSevere | low | 12 Tier II | new |
| 8 | Pandemic S14 | E Health | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | medium | 15 Tier I | new |
| 9 | Food and water shock S11 | C Energy, climate and resources | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 3SignificantSignificant | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | medium | 15 Tier I | new |
| 10 | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | A Economic and trade | 3PossiblePossible | 4LikelyLikely | 2ModerateModerate | 5CatastrophicCatastrophic | high | 15 Tier I | new |
- Judgement S04 and S10 tie on priority, systemic impact and confidence; S04 takes the tenth place on the current debt-distress and aid-withdrawal context.
- Judgement S13 is ranked seventh as drafted, on a stated priority of 16. The published arithmetic gives 12 (L2y 3 × impact 4), which is Tier II and would place it outside the ten. The rank is kept as drafted and the difference is referred to the review committee.
- Judgement Ten upside scenarios entered the Library, five at v0.3 and five at v0.4. They are rated on the same scales but not ranked: the ranked ten order downside risk, and a priority score would read a large gain as a large threat.
Headline findings
2Placeholder
The scenarios most likely to break a nation are idiosyncratic (legitimacy, sovereign funding, disaster) and do not appear in global risk rankings.
3Placeholder
Every Tier I scenario loads government effectiveness at High, which is the capability the Blavatnik Index measures.
Upside scenarios
Not every shock is a loss. A shock most would count as progress. It is not upside for everyone: each record names who gains and who loses. Impact levels measure the scale of change, in either direction, and loads mark the capabilities a nation needs in order to capture the gain or absorb the loss. They sit in the Library on the same grammar and are not ranked.
Superintelligence takeoff ↗
S15- Gains
- Nations hosting frontier projects, compute and power
- Loses
- Knowledge-work exporters and graduate labour markets
Energy abundance breakthrough ↗
S16- Gains
- Energy importers: Europe, Japan, Korea, India and most of Africa
- Loses
- Hydrocarbon exporters without fiscal buffers
Biomedical breakthrough wave ↗
S17- Gains
- High-burden nations for HIV and malaria
- Loses
- Pension funds and annuity providers
Great-power détente and peace dividend ↗
S18- Gains
- Consumers and trade-dependent economies
- Loses
- Industries built behind tariffs and subsidies
Coordinated sovereign debt reset ↗
S19- Gains
- About 50 debt-distressed nations
- Loses
- Bondholders and bilateral creditors, who take losses
Emerging-market growth breakout ↗
S20- Gains
- Large developing economies with power, ports and schools
- Loses
- Incumbent manufacturing exporters
Middle East regional settlement ↗
S21- Gains
- The states of the region, through reconstruction and investment
- Loses
- Armed groups and proxies that live off conflict
Agricultural yield revolution ↗
S22- Gains
- Food-importing, low-yield nations
- Loses
- Grain-exporting nations and their farmers
Digital public infrastructure leapfrog ↗
S23- Gains
- States that move from paper to digital delivery
- Loses
- People without a phone, a signal or a readable fingerprint
Hundred-day pandemic defence ↗
S24- Gains
- Nations inside the surveillance and manufacturing network
- Loses
- Nations outside the sharing network
In the Library, not ranked in 2027
The Library is the stable set of scenarios; the Edition ranks ten of them each year. Rankings move; scenarios persist. Browse all scenarios.
Catastrophic disaster in the core
S10Hybrid campaign by a hostile state
S06Mass displacement shock
S08Critical infrastructure collapse
S12Read the edition by audience or region
Citation and versions
Cite as
GINC (2027). Scenarios 2027: Scenario Library v0.4. Oxford: Global Institute for National Capability. scenarios.ginc.org/2027Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.