Downloads

Scenario Library v0.4. The site is a view of these files; every number on a page traces to a field in one of them.

File	Contents	Format
All scenarios	The 24 scenario records in one file	JSON
All scenarios, scorecard	One row per scenario: identity, ratings and the Standard Severe preset	CSV
Overview cells	One row per scenario and lens or region	CSV
Capability loading	One row per scenario and working domain	CSV
Edition 2027	Ranking, movement, findings, judgements and release information	JSON
Edition 2027, ranking	One row per scenario with rank and ratings	CSV
Grammar	Sliders, presets, scales, regions, stakeholders, families, thematics and working domains	JSON
Domain map	Working domains reconciled to the National Capability Framework	JSON
Historical anchors	Shared anchor records, referenced by scenarios	JSON
Vulnerability and opportunity indices	One row per nation: both indices at three and ten years, worst case, tail, breadth, policy dividend and weakest link	CSV
Exposure indicators	Nation-level indicators from the 2025 World Factbook, scaled 0 to 1	JSON
Test results	Load and capture tests: one row per nation and scenario	CSV
Test results, full	Every result with domain detail and run summaries	JSON
Test settings	Load sizes, exposure, buffers and required capabilities for each scenario	JSON
Capability scores	197 nations × 73 capability groups, as used in the tests	JSON
Trends	The GINC 250: every trend with its capability domain and its score against every scenario	JSON
Trends, ranked	One row per trend with sensitivity and network measures	CSV
Trend by scenario scores	One row per trend and scenario, on the seven-point rubric	CSV
Trend similarity	One row per pair of trends at Moderate similarity or above	CSV
Trend network	Similarity matrix, measures and method	JSON
Benchmarks	Reference scenario sets, with strengths, limitations and report links	JSON
Scenario schema	JSON Schema for a scenario record	JSON
Edition schema	JSON Schema for an edition record	JSON
Grammar schema	JSON Schema for the grammar	JSON

Each scenario

ID	Scenario	Version	JSON	CSV
S01	Geoeconomic confrontation	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S02	Single-supplier cut-off	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S03	Global financial crisis	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S04	Sovereign funding crisis	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S05	Maritime chokepoint closure	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S06	Hybrid campaign by a hostile state	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S07	Political legitimacy crisis	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S08	Mass displacement shock	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S09	Energy supply shock	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S10	Catastrophic disaster in the core	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S11	Food and water system shock	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S12	Critical infrastructure collapse	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S13	Rapid AI diffusion shock	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S14	Pandemic with a novel pathogen	0.2.0	JSON	CSV
S15	Superintelligence takeoff	0.3.0	JSON	CSV
S16	Energy abundance breakthrough	0.3.0	JSON	CSV
S17	Biomedical breakthrough wave	0.3.0	JSON	CSV
S18	Great-power détente and peace dividend	0.3.0	JSON	CSV
S19	Coordinated sovereign debt reset	0.3.0	JSON	CSV
S20	Emerging-market growth breakout	0.4.0	JSON	CSV
S21	Middle East regional settlement	0.4.0	JSON	CSV
S22	Agricultural yield revolution	0.4.0	JSON	CSV
S23	Digital public infrastructure leapfrog	0.4.0	JSON	CSV
S24	Hundred-day pandemic defence	0.4.0	JSON	CSV

Licence

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0. You may share and adapt them for any purpose with attribution. Code is published under the MIT licence.

Citation

Edition. GINC (2027). Scenarios 2027: Scenario Library v0.4. Oxford: Global Institute for National Capability. scenarios.ginc.org/2027
Scenario. Each scenario page and Library record carries its own citation, in the form: GINC (2027). Scenario S05 Maritime chokepoint closure, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/chokepoint-closure
Dataset. GINC (2027). Scenario Library v0.4 [dataset]. Oxford: Global Institute for National Capability. scenarios.ginc.org/data

Stable addresses

Scenario identifiers and slugs are permanent. The download addresses on this page do not change between releases; the files carry their own version strings.

Persistent identifiers

A DOI will be registered for each Edition’s dataset at release, and for the Library at each minor version. Until then, cite the addresses above.

API

There is no API in this release. The files on this page are static and can be fetched directly. An API is planned for the mid-2027 release.

Versioning

Library versions follow semantic versioning: patch for wording and anchors, minor for parameter or loading changes, major for scenario additions, retirements or scale changes. Every change is a dated line in the change log and in the scenario’s own record.