{
  "id": "S10",
  "slug": "catastrophic-disaster-core",
  "title": "Catastrophic disaster in the core",
  "version": "0.2.0",
  "status": "active",
  "orientation": "downside",
  "family": "C",
  "short_title": "Disaster in the core",
  "thematics": [
    "climate-energy-resources",
    "resilience-crisis-preparedness"
  ],
  "likelihood_type": "idiosyncratic",
  "likelihood_note": null,
  "scores": {
    "likelihood_2y": {
      "band": 3,
      "rationale": "A 1-in-100 event in the core is about 1 per cent a year per hazard, higher across multiple hazards and under climate change."
    },
    "likelihood_10y": {
      "band": 4,
      "rationale": ""
    },
    "impact_systemic": {
      "level": 2,
      "rationale": "Unless the core is a global hub."
    },
    "impact_national": {
      "level": 5,
      "rationale": ""
    },
    "confidence": {
      "level": "high",
      "reason": "Hazard science is mature."
    },
    "priority": 15,
    "tier": "I",
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "onset": "sudden",
    "duration": "30 days (acute)",
    "warning": "none to days",
    "scope": "national",
    "origin": "natural",
    "external_support": "partial",
    "policy_response": "current plans",
    "recovery_horizon": "years"
  },
  "summary": "A once-in-a-century flood, storm, fire, heatwave or earthquake strikes the nation's main population and economic centre. v0.2 widened the scenario from climate to seismic hazards, since the Swiss analysis ranks earthquake third of 44 hazards and the 2023 Türkiye–Syria and 2025 Myanmar earthquakes were the deadliest disasters of the period. Following the Swiss method, every nation is assessed at one common 'major' intensity so that hazards can be compared; the hazard type is a parameter.",
  "narrative": {
    "dateline": "February 2028",
    "text": "The rain that was forecast as 'heavy' delivers a year's total in eight hours over the metropolitan area. Underpasses, metro lines and the basement data centres of three banks flood before the first alert reaches phones; the alert system itself depends on a tower that loses power at 19:40. The main port is closed for a month, the airport for nine days. Insurers report 400,000 claims in a week and a quarter of the damaged homes have no cover. The hospital that serves the district is evacuated by boat. Six weeks later, the national accounts show the quarter's output down 4 per cent and the fiscal cost at 2 per cent of GDP before reconstruction begins. An earthquake variant plays out in a different capital: 50,000 dead, two million homeless, the building-code enforcement failures of 30 years visible from the air. In both, the question that decides the recovery is not the size of the hazard but whether the state can register, house, treat and pay a few million people at once, and whether anyone trusts the numbers it publishes."
  },
  "anchors": [
    {
      "shock_id": "valencia-floods-2024",
      "date": "29 October 2024",
      "event": "Valencia floods",
      "what_happened": "Over 220 deaths; alert failures; months of recovery",
      "calibrates": "warning and alert failure"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "los-angeles-wildfires-2025",
      "date": "January 2025",
      "event": "Los Angeles wildfires",
      "what_happened": "Insured losses around US$40 billion; among the costliest wildfires on record",
      "calibrates": "urban fire, insurance gap"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "hurricane-helene-2024",
      "date": "September 2024",
      "event": "Hurricane Helene",
      "what_happened": "Over 200 deaths across the US south-east; inland flooding far from the coast",
      "calibrates": "cascading inland impact"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "pakistan-floods-2022",
      "date": "2022",
      "event": "Pakistan floods",
      "what_happened": "A third of the country under water; 33 million affected; damage around US$30 billion",
      "calibrates": "national-scale flood, low income"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "turkiye-syria-earthquake-2023",
      "date": "6 February 2023",
      "event": "Türkiye–Syria earthquake",
      "what_happened": "Over 50,000 deaths; damage estimates above US$30 billion for Türkiye",
      "calibrates": "seismic variant"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "myanmar-earthquake-2025",
      "date": "28 March 2025",
      "event": "Myanmar earthquake",
      "what_happened": "Magnitude 7.7; thousands dead; response constrained by conflict",
      "calibrates": "compound with S07"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "swiss-national-risk-analysis-2025",
      "date": "2025",
      "event": "Swiss national risk analysis",
      "what_happened": "Earthquake third, inland flooding fifth, windstorm sixth, drought seventh, heatwave ninth of 44 hazards",
      "calibrates": "hazard ranking precedent"
    }
  ],
  "parameters": {
    "common": {
      "severity": {
        "major": "major",
        "severe": "severe",
        "extreme": "extreme"
      },
      "duration": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "30 days (acute)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "onset": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "sudden",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "warning": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "none to days",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "scope": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "national",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "origin": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "natural",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "external_support": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "partial",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "concurrency": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "standalone",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "policy_response": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "current plans",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "recovery_horizon": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "years",
        "extreme": null
      }
    },
    "specific": [
      {
        "name": "Hazard",
        "default": "flood",
        "range": "options: earthquake / wildfire / storm / heatwave",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Return period",
        "default": "1-in-100",
        "range": "1-in-50 to 1-in-500",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Share of population exposed",
        "default": "15 per cent",
        "range": "5–40",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Share of GDP in affected zone",
        "default": "25 per cent",
        "range": "10–50",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Insurance penetration",
        "default": "30 per cent",
        "range": "5–70",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Cascading infrastructure failure",
        "default": "yes",
        "range": null,
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "transmission": [
    "Physical destruction and casualties.",
    "Infrastructure outage: power, water, transport, communications.",
    "Health system overload.",
    "Business interruption and supply-chain breaks.",
    "Insurance and fiscal cost.",
    "Displacement and housing.",
    "Political accountability and trust."
  ],
  "loading": [
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "defence-security",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "military aid to civil authorities; search and rescue"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "grid, water, transport, telecoms resilience and repair"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "critical-technology",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "early warning, geospatial data"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "government-effectiveness",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "emergency management, alerts, reconstruction, registration and payments"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "human-capital",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "health surge, schooling disruption, mental health"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "influence-cohesion",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "trust in authorities; solidarity"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "macro-financial",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "fiscal cost, insurance sector, output loss"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "industry-trade-supply",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "ports, factories, logistics"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "energy-resources",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "generation and fuel distribution"
    }
  ],
  "stakeholders": {
    "government": {
      "exposure": "Alert systems, building codes, emergency funds, insurance backstops",
      "actions": [
        "Test alerts at scale",
        "Fund pre-arranged financing (cat bonds, contingent credit)",
        "Enforce codes"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Hazard forecasts",
        "Insurance withdrawal from regions"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    },
    "technology": {
      "exposure": "Data-centre siting, telecoms resilience, alert delivery",
      "actions": [
        "Geographic redundancy",
        "Cell-broadcast alerts"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Flood and fire risk maps"
      ],
      "relevance": 3
    },
    "investors": {
      "exposure": "Insurers, municipal debt, real estate",
      "actions": [
        "Physical-risk screening by asset"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Cat model updates",
        "Reinsurance pricing"
      ],
      "relevance": 3
    },
    "public": {
      "exposure": "Household preparedness and insurance",
      "actions": [
        "72-hour kits",
        "Flood and fire plans"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Official alerts"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    }
  },
  "regions": [
    {
      "region": "north-america",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Hurricanes, fire, earthquake"
    },
    {
      "region": "europe",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Floods, heat"
    },
    {
      "region": "china",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Floods, typhoons, earthquakes"
    },
    {
      "region": "indo-pacific",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Typhoons, earthquakes, Pacific cyclones"
    },
    {
      "region": "south-asia",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Floods, heat, earthquakes"
    },
    {
      "region": "gulf-middle-east",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Heat, flash floods, Türkiye and Iran seismic"
    },
    {
      "region": "africa",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Floods, drought, low coverage"
    },
    {
      "region": "latin-america",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Hurricanes, earthquakes, El Niño"
    },
    {
      "region": "russia-eurasia",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Central Asian seismic; wildfire"
    }
  ],
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "Seasonal forecasts and ENSO state",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Cat model loss estimates",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Insurance availability by region",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Alert system test results",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Building-code enforcement audits",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Reservoir and river levels",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Urban heat records",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Seismic monitoring",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    }
  ],
  "compounds": {
    "triggers": [
      {
        "id": "S12",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S08",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S04",
        "note": "fiscal"
      },
      {
        "id": "S11",
        "note": "regional food"
      }
    ],
    "triggered_by": [],
    "amplified_by": [
      {
        "id": "S09",
        "note": "fuel for response"
      },
      {
        "id": "S07",
        "note": "contested response"
      }
    ],
    "triggered_by_other": [],
    "amplifying_trends": [
      "climate change raising hazard frequency",
      "urbanisation in exposed zones",
      "insurance retreat"
    ]
  },
  "open_questions": [
    "Whether to assess at a common return period or a common intensity (the Swiss choice).",
    "How to treat small island states where the core is the whole country.",
    "Whether heatwaves, whose deaths are diffuse, belong with sudden-onset hazards."
  ],
  "commentary": null,
  "overview": {
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2",
    "lenses": {
      "political": "Recovery turns on **accountability**: whether anyone trusts the numbers the state publishes.",
      "economic": "The quarter's output is down **4 per cent** and the fiscal cost is 2 per cent of GDP before reconstruction. The port closes for a month.",
      "social": "The district hospital is evacuated by boat. In the earthquake variant, **two million are homeless**.",
      "technological": "The alert system depends on **a tower that loses power**. Basement data centres flood before the first alert arrives.",
      "legal": "Thirty years of **building-code enforcement** failures are visible from the air. A quarter of damaged homes have no cover.",
      "environmental": "A year's rain falls in **eight hours**. Flood, storm, fire, heatwave or earthquake, assessed at one common intensity."
    },
    "regions": {
      "north-america": "**Hurricanes, fire and earthquake**. The 2025 Los Angeles wildfires cost insurers around US$40 billion.",
      "europe": "**Floods and heat**. Valencia in 2024: over 220 deaths and alert failures.",
      "china": "**Floods, typhoons and earthquakes**.",
      "indo-pacific": "**Typhoons, earthquakes** and Pacific cyclones.",
      "south-asia": "Floods, heat and earthquakes. In 2022 **a third of Pakistan** was under water.",
      "gulf-middle-east": "Heat and flash floods; **Türkiye and Iran** are seismic.",
      "africa": "Floods and drought, with **low insurance coverage**.",
      "latin-america": "**Hurricanes, earthquakes** and El Niño.",
      "russia-eurasia": "Central Asian **seismic risk**; wildfire."
    }
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "edition": 2027,
      "rank": null,
      "L2y": 3,
      "L10y": 4,
      "impact_systemic": 2,
      "impact_national": 5,
      "confidence": "high"
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "version": "0.2.0",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "change": "Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores."
    }
  ],
  "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenario S10 Catastrophic disaster in the core, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/catastrophic-disaster-core"
}