{
  "id": "S05",
  "slug": "chokepoint-closure",
  "title": "Maritime chokepoint closure",
  "version": "0.2.0",
  "status": "active",
  "orientation": "downside",
  "family": "B",
  "short_title": "Chokepoint closure",
  "thematics": [
    "economic-security-supply-chains",
    "climate-energy-resources",
    "resilience-crisis-preparedness"
  ],
  "likelihood_type": "systemic",
  "likelihood_note": null,
  "scores": {
    "likelihood_2y": {
      "band": 4,
      "rationale": "A Standard Severe closure occurred in 2026 and the underlying conflict is unresolved; Taiwan Strait risk is independent of it."
    },
    "likelihood_10y": {
      "band": 5,
      "rationale": ""
    },
    "impact_systemic": {
      "level": 4,
      "rationale": "On Lloyd's weighted estimate."
    },
    "impact_national": {
      "level": 5,
      "rationale": "For single-route importers."
    },
    "confidence": {
      "level": "high",
      "reason": "The 2026 episode supplied observed values for every slider."
    },
    "priority": 20,
    "tier": "I",
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "onset": "sudden",
    "duration": "90 days (acute)",
    "warning": "days",
    "scope": "global",
    "origin": "adversarial (regional)",
    "external_support": "partial",
    "policy_response": "current plans",
    "recovery_horizon": "months"
  },
  "summary": "A major strait is closed to commercial traffic for 90 days by conflict, blockade, mining or insurer withdrawal, followed by months of partial recovery. Hormuz is the default: a fifth of seaborne oil and a similar share of LNG. Variants cover the Taiwan Strait, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez, the Turkish Straits, Panama and the Baltic approaches. The 2026 Hormuz closure is the primary anchor and supplies observed values for transits, prices, insurance and recovery.",
  "narrative": {
    "dateline": "May 2029",
    "text": "The first tanker is hit on a Sunday night and by Wednesday the war-risk underwriters have withdrawn cover for the Gulf. Owners order ships to hold outside the strait. Transits fall from about a hundred a day to a handful of escorted convoys. Brent is up 30 per cent in ten days; LNG spot cargoes reprice overnight and the buyers in Japan, Korea and South Asia who import most of their gas through the strait start rationing industrial users within three weeks. Europe discovers that a third of its jet fuel came through the same water. Strategic reserves are released on day 12 and buy about six weeks. Pipelines to the Red Sea run at capacity and move a fraction of the lost volume. Food importers in East Africa are hit second: freight rates triple on the routes that remain open. A ceasefire is agreed in week six; insurers do not return for another two months, and traffic is still a third of normal four months after the first attack. Governments that had assumed a closure would last days find that their fuel allocation plans were written for the wrong duration."
  },
  "anchors": [
    {
      "shock_id": "hormuz-closure-2026",
      "date": "28 February to July 2026",
      "event": "Strait of Hormuz closure",
      "what_happened": "Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, commercial shipping effectively halted from early March; 13 vessel incidents confirmed by 10 March; Brent above US$92 on 6 March with the largest weekly rise in two decades; war-risk premiums doubled; LNG spot rates up 40 per cent in a session; first transits under a ceasefire on 8 April; a US–Iran memorandum on 17 June; 34 transits a day on 2 July against about 100 before the conflict; Brent back near US$71 by July",
      "calibrates": "duration, recovery horizon, price and insurance paths"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "red-sea-and-bab-el-mandeb-2023",
      "date": "November 2023–2025",
      "event": "Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb",
      "what_happened": "Houthi attacks; Suez transits roughly halved; Cape routing added 10 to 14 days",
      "calibrates": "partial-closure variant"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "ever-given-grounding-2021",
      "date": "23–29 March 2021",
      "event": "Ever Given grounding",
      "what_happened": "Suez blocked six days; about US$9 billion a day of trade held",
      "calibrates": "short accidental closure"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "panama-canal-drought-2023",
      "date": "2023–2024",
      "event": "Panama Canal drought",
      "what_happened": "Daily transits cut from about 36 to the low 20s",
      "calibrates": "climate variant"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "lloyds-geopolitical-conflict-scenario-2024",
      "date": "October 2024",
      "event": "Lloyd's geopolitical conflict scenario",
      "what_happened": "Closure of major trade routes: five-year global loss US$14.5 trillion weighted (US$7.8 to 50 trillion); Europe up to US$3.4 trillion",
      "calibrates": "systemic impact"
    }
  ],
  "parameters": {
    "common": {
      "severity": {
        "major": "major",
        "severe": "severe",
        "extreme": "extreme"
      },
      "duration": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "90 days (acute)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "onset": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "sudden",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "warning": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "days",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "scope": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "global",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "origin": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "adversarial (regional)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "external_support": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "partial",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "concurrency": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "standalone",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "policy_response": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "current plans",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "recovery_horizon": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "months",
        "extreme": null
      }
    },
    "specific": [
      {
        "name": "Strait",
        "default": "Hormuz",
        "range": "options: Taiwan Strait / Malacca / Bab el-Mandeb and Suez / Turkish Straits / Panama / Baltic",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Share of seaborne oil affected",
        "default": "20 per cent",
        "range": "5–40",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Full closure duration",
        "default": "90 days",
        "range": "14–180",
        "unit": "days",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Rerouting availability",
        "default": "partial",
        "range": "none–full",
        "unit": null,
        "note": "pipelines"
      },
      {
        "name": "Insurance withdrawal",
        "default": "war-risk premiums ×2",
        "range": "×1.5 to ×10",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Naval escort regime",
        "default": "partial",
        "range": null,
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "transmission": [
    "Insurer withdrawal halts traffic before any blockade.",
    "Energy price spike and physical shortage for direct importers.",
    "Freight and insurance costs rise on all routes.",
    "Food and fertiliser importers hit through freight and diversion.",
    "Fiscal cost of subsidies and reserve releases.",
    "Naval deployment and alliance obligations.",
    "Slow recovery as insurers and crews return."
  ],
  "loading": [
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "defence-security",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "naval reach, escort capacity, mine clearance"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "ports, pipelines, storage, refining flexibility"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "critical-technology",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "shipping-tracking and maritime domain awareness"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "government-effectiveness",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "fuel allocation, reserve release, crisis coordination"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "human-capital",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "transport and heating disruption"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "influence-cohesion",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "alliance diplomacy; public tolerance of rationing"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "macro-financial",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "inflation, current account, fiscal cost"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "industry-trade-supply",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "freight, inventories, export access"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "energy-resources",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "crude and LNG supply; strategic stocks"
    }
  ],
  "stakeholders": {
    "government": {
      "exposure": "Import route concentration and reserve days",
      "actions": [
        "Write allocation plans for 90-day closures",
        "Pre-agree reserve release with the IEA",
        "Secure escort arrangements"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "UKMTO incident reports",
        "Transit counts"
      ],
      "relevance": 5
    },
    "technology": {
      "exposure": "Data-centre power and diesel backup",
      "actions": [
        "Fuel contracts and demand-response"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Diesel availability"
      ],
      "relevance": 3
    },
    "investors": {
      "exposure": "Shipping, insurance, energy and importers",
      "actions": [
        "Stress on a 90-day closure with insurer withdrawal"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "War-risk premiums",
        "Tanker rates"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    },
    "public": {
      "exposure": "Fuel prices and availability",
      "actions": [],
      "watch": [
        "Pump prices",
        "Rationing announcements"
      ],
      "relevance": 2
    }
  },
  "regions": [
    {
      "region": "north-america",
      "exposure": "Low",
      "rationale": "Net exporter; price exposure only"
    },
    {
      "region": "europe",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Jet fuel, LNG, Suez trade"
    },
    {
      "region": "china",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Crude imports through Hormuz and Malacca"
    },
    {
      "region": "indo-pacific",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Japan, Korea, Taiwan import most energy by sea"
    },
    {
      "region": "south-asia",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "India's crude; Pakistan's LNG"
    },
    {
      "region": "gulf-middle-east",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Exports stop; fiscal collapse for some"
    },
    {
      "region": "africa",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "East African food and fuel freight"
    },
    {
      "region": "latin-america",
      "exposure": "Low",
      "rationale": null
    },
    {
      "region": "russia-eurasia",
      "exposure": "Low",
      "rationale": "Beneficiary on price"
    }
  ],
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "Daily transits by strait",
      "source": "Lloyd's List Intelligence, UKMTO, Windward",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "War-risk premium as share of hull value",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Brent–Dubai and LNG spot spreads",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "IEA strategic stock days",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Baltic Dry and tanker rate indices",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Naval deployments announced",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Mine incidents",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    }
  ],
  "compounds": {
    "triggers": [
      {
        "id": "S09",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S11",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S04",
        "note": "importers"
      },
      {
        "id": "S03",
        "note": "if prolonged"
      }
    ],
    "triggered_by": [
      {
        "id": "S06",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S07",
        "note": "regional"
      }
    ],
    "amplified_by": [],
    "triggered_by_other": [],
    "amplifying_trends": [
      "energy import concentration",
      "just-in-time fuel logistics",
      "insurer concentration"
    ]
  },
  "open_questions": [
    "Whether a Taiwan Strait closure is a variant of S05 or a scenario of its own given its conflict context.",
    "How to treat exporters whose revenue stops versus importers whose supply stops.",
    "Whether 90 days remains Standard Severe after a five-week closure produced four months of disruption."
  ],
  "commentary": null,
  "overview": {
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2",
    "lenses": {
      "political": "A ceasefire is agreed in week six. **Naval escorts** and alliance obligations are called on throughout.",
      "economic": "Brent is up **30 per cent in ten days**. LNG cargoes reprice overnight and freight rates triple on the routes still open.",
      "social": "Industrial gas users are **rationed within three weeks**; fuel prices and food freight reach households next.",
      "technological": "Shipping tracking and **maritime domain awareness** carry the load; data centres look to diesel backup.",
      "legal": "**War-risk underwriters withdraw cover** before any blockade, and do not return for two months after the ceasefire.",
      "environmental": "A fifth of seaborne oil and a similar share of LNG stop. Strategic reserves buy **about six weeks**."
    },
    "regions": {
      "north-america": "Net exporter; **price exposure only**.",
      "europe": "Jet fuel, LNG and Suez trade. A third of its **jet fuel** came through the same water.",
      "china": "Crude imports run through **Hormuz and Malacca**.",
      "indo-pacific": "Japan, Korea and Taiwan import most of their energy by sea and **ration industrial users** within three weeks.",
      "south-asia": "**India's crude and Pakistan's LNG** come through the strait.",
      "gulf-middle-east": "**Exports stop**. For some, the fiscal position collapses.",
      "africa": "East African **food and fuel freight**: rates triple on the routes that remain open.",
      "latin-america": "Rated **Low**: far from the strait and less dependent on its cargoes.",
      "russia-eurasia": "Low exposure; a **beneficiary on price**."
    }
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "edition": 2027,
      "rank": 2,
      "L2y": 4,
      "L10y": 5,
      "impact_systemic": 4,
      "impact_national": 5,
      "confidence": "high"
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "version": "0.2.0",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "change": "Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores."
    }
  ],
  "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenario S05 Maritime chokepoint closure, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/chokepoint-closure"
}