{
  "version": "0.4.0",
  "orientations": [
    {
      "key": "downside",
      "label": "Downside",
      "definition": "A shock that damages capability. Impact levels measure loss."
    },
    {
      "key": "upside",
      "label": "Upside",
      "definition": "A shock most would count as progress. It is not upside for everyone: each record names who gains and who loses. Impact levels measure the scale of change, in either direction, and loads mark the capabilities a nation needs in order to capture the gain or absorb the loss."
    }
  ],
  "sliders": [
    {
      "n": 1,
      "key": "severity",
      "name": "Severity",
      "values": [
        "major",
        "severe",
        "extreme"
      ],
      "note": "Lloyd's and Cambridge convention. Standard Severe is the comparability anchor; every scenario is rated at it (the Swiss practice of assessing all hazards at one common intensity)."
    },
    {
      "n": 2,
      "key": "duration",
      "name": "Duration (acute phase)",
      "values": [
        "30 days",
        "90 days",
        "1 year",
        "3 years",
        "5 years"
      ],
      "note": "Five years added for slow shocks (S13)."
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "key": "onset",
      "name": "Onset",
      "values": [
        "sudden",
        "rapid (weeks)",
        "gradual (years)"
      ],
      "note": "Separates shocks from accelerated trends."
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "key": "warning",
      "name": "Warning time",
      "values": [
        "none",
        "days",
        "months"
      ],
      "note": "Determines whether stockpiles, evacuation and diplomacy are available."
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "key": "scope",
      "name": "Scope",
      "values": [
        "national",
        "regional",
        "global"
      ],
      "note": "Global removes the option of leaning on neighbours."
    },
    {
      "n": 6,
      "key": "origin",
      "name": "Origin",
      "values": [
        "natural",
        "accidental",
        "adversarial (great power / neighbour / non-state)"
      ],
      "note": "Changes which alliances activate."
    },
    {
      "n": 7,
      "key": "external_support",
      "name": "External support",
      "values": [
        "full",
        "partial",
        "none"
      ],
      "note": "'None' is the honest setting and the one that reveals sovereignty gaps."
    },
    {
      "n": 8,
      "key": "concurrency",
      "name": "Concurrency",
      "values": [
        "standalone",
        "plus one named scenario",
        "plus two"
      ],
      "note": "Compound settings are where most real failures live."
    },
    {
      "n": 9,
      "key": "policy_response",
      "name": "Policy response assumed",
      "values": [
        "none (pure exposure)",
        "current plans executed",
        "best practice"
      ],
      "note": "The gap between the first two is the capability finding; between the second and third is the policy recommendation."
    },
    {
      "n": 10,
      "key": "recovery_horizon",
      "name": "Recovery horizon",
      "values": [
        "months",
        "years",
        "structural"
      ],
      "note": "Time to return to 90 per cent of pre-shock capability. Split from duration after Hormuz 2026 showed about five weeks of closure followed by months of partial recovery."
    }
  ],
  "presets": [
    {
      "key": "major",
      "name": "Standard Major",
      "definition": null
    },
    {
      "key": "severe",
      "name": "Standard Severe",
      "definition": "The comparability anchor. Every scenario is rated at this preset."
    },
    {
      "key": "extreme",
      "name": "Standard Extreme",
      "definition": "The reasonable worst case in the UK National Risk Register's wording: 'the worst plausible manifestation of that particular risk (once highly unlikely variations have been discounted)'."
    }
  ],
  "custom_runs": "Custom settings run (Phase B) but are labelled 'non-standard run' and excluded from comparisons.",
  "likelihood": {
    "convention": "UK National Risk Register",
    "horizons": [
      {
        "key": "likelihood_2y",
        "label": "Two years",
        "short": "L2y"
      },
      {
        "key": "likelihood_10y",
        "label": "Ten years",
        "short": "L10y"
      }
    ],
    "bands": [
      {
        "band": 1,
        "label": "Remote",
        "range": "under 0.2 per cent"
      },
      {
        "band": 2,
        "label": "Unlikely",
        "range": "0.2 to 1 per cent"
      },
      {
        "band": 3,
        "label": "Possible",
        "range": "1 to 5 per cent"
      },
      {
        "band": 4,
        "label": "Likely",
        "range": "5 to 25 per cent"
      },
      {
        "band": 5,
        "label": "Highly likely",
        "range": "over 25 per cent"
      }
    ],
    "types": [
      {
        "key": "systemic",
        "label": "Systemic",
        "definition": "The event is global or near-global when it occurs. Likelihood is the probability that an event meeting the Standard Severe definition occurs within the horizon."
      },
      {
        "key": "idiosyncratic",
        "label": "Idiosyncratic",
        "definition": "The event strikes one nation at a time. Likelihood is the probability that a given nation experiences the Standard Severe event within the horizon, estimated from the base rate across the 197 GINC nations, with clustering noted where exposure is concentrated."
      }
    ]
  },
  "impact": {
    "systemic": {
      "label": "Systemic impact",
      "short": "Sys",
      "convention": "Global, five-year accounting; Lloyd's GDP@Risk convention extended from 107 to 197 nations.",
      "levels": [
        {
          "level": 1,
          "label": "Limited",
          "upside_label": "Limited",
          "range": "under 0.5 per cent of global output at risk over five years",
          "also": "no capability band shifts expected"
        },
        {
          "level": 2,
          "label": "Moderate",
          "upside_label": "Moderate",
          "range": "0.5 to 1 per cent of global output at risk over five years",
          "also": "band shifts in one domain, few nations"
        },
        {
          "level": 3,
          "label": "Significant",
          "upside_label": "Significant",
          "range": "1 to 2.5 per cent of global output at risk over five years",
          "also": "band shifts across several domains or many nations"
        },
        {
          "level": 4,
          "label": "Severe",
          "upside_label": "Major",
          "range": "2.5 to 5 per cent of global output at risk over five years",
          "also": "widespread shifts; some structural"
        },
        {
          "level": 5,
          "label": "Catastrophic",
          "upside_label": "Transformative",
          "range": "over 5 per cent of global output at risk over five years, or irreversible structural change",
          "also": "widespread structural shifts"
        }
      ]
    },
    "national": {
      "label": "National impact",
      "short": "Nat",
      "convention": "Typical highly exposed nation, same five labels. The score is the highest dimension reached, not an average.",
      "dimensions": [
        "human welfare",
        "essential services",
        "economic damage",
        "security",
        "international position",
        "social cohesion",
        "environment"
      ]
    },
    "calibration": "Lloyd's five-year, probability-weighted losses (pandemic US$13.6 trillion, geopolitical conflict US$14.5 trillion, food and water US$5 trillion, cyber US$3.5 trillion, space weather US$2.4 trillion) sit between levels 2 and 3 of the systemic scale; their 'extreme' variants (pandemic up to 6.4 per cent of global GDP, conflict up to US$50 trillion) reach level 5. Supervisory 'severely adverse' scenarios (Fed 2026, Bank of England 2025) are level 5 events for the economies they model."
  },
  "confidence": {
    "levels": [
      "very low",
      "low",
      "medium",
      "high",
      "very high"
    ],
    "note": "Confidence refers to the rating, not the scenario."
  },
  "priority": {
    "formula": "priority = L2y × max(systemic impact, national impact)",
    "tiers": [
      {
        "tier": "I",
        "min": 15,
        "max": 25
      },
      {
        "tier": "II",
        "min": 9,
        "max": 14
      },
      {
        "tier": "III",
        "min": 1,
        "max": 8
      }
    ],
    "tie_break": [
      "systemic impact",
      "confidence",
      "L10y"
    ],
    "note": "This arithmetic exists for development and transparency; it does not bind the Edition."
  },
  "load_levels": [
    {
      "load": "High",
      "definition": "Capability band shifts expected under current plans."
    },
    {
      "load": "Medium",
      "definition": "Band shifts under 'none' policy response only."
    },
    {
      "load": "Low",
      "definition": "Strain without band shift."
    }
  ],
  "regions": [
    {
      "slug": "north-america",
      "label": "North America",
      "brief_label": "North America",
      "members": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "europe",
      "label": "Europe",
      "brief_label": "Europe",
      "members": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "china",
      "label": "China",
      "brief_label": "China",
      "members": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "indo-pacific",
      "label": "Indo-Pacific",
      "brief_label": "Indo-Pacific",
      "members": "Japan, Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN, Australia, New Zealand, Pacific"
    },
    {
      "slug": "south-asia",
      "label": "South Asia",
      "brief_label": "South Asia",
      "members": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "gulf-middle-east",
      "label": "Gulf and Middle East",
      "brief_label": "Gulf and Middle East",
      "members": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "africa",
      "label": "Africa",
      "brief_label": "Africa",
      "members": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "latin-america",
      "label": "Latin America and Caribbean",
      "brief_label": "Latin America",
      "members": null
    },
    {
      "slug": "russia-eurasia",
      "label": "Russia and Eurasia",
      "brief_label": "Russia and Eurasia",
      "members": null
    }
  ],
  "stakeholders": [
    {
      "slug": "government",
      "label": "Government",
      "members": "ministries, agencies, central banks, legislators",
      "relevance_domains": [
        "government-effectiveness",
        "defence-security"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "technology",
      "label": "Technology",
      "members": "technology companies, digital infrastructure operators, CTOs and CISOs",
      "relevance_domains": [
        "critical-technology",
        "strategic-infrastructure"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "investors",
      "label": "Investors",
      "members": "asset owners, asset managers, insurers, lenders, rating agencies",
      "relevance_domains": [
        "macro-financial",
        "industry-trade-supply"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "public",
      "label": "Public",
      "members": "households, civil society, local government, media",
      "relevance_domains": [
        "human-capital",
        "influence-cohesion"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "stakeholder_relevance": {
    "scale": "1 to 5",
    "method": "Phase A development default, derived from the loading table: each group reads two working domains; High counts 2, Medium 1, Low 0; the score is the sum plus one. The panel split replaces it from Phase B.",
    "source": "derived-from-loading-v0.2"
  },
  "families": [
    {
      "key": "A",
      "label": "Economic and trade",
      "colour": "#2ec2ff",
      "shape": "circle"
    },
    {
      "key": "B",
      "label": "Geopolitical and security",
      "colour": "#6652ff",
      "shape": "square"
    },
    {
      "key": "C",
      "label": "Energy, climate and resources",
      "colour": "#fa8205",
      "shape": "triangle"
    },
    {
      "key": "D",
      "label": "Technology and infrastructure",
      "colour": "#fdc103",
      "shape": "diamond"
    },
    {
      "key": "E",
      "label": "Health",
      "colour": "#37c43e",
      "shape": "cross"
    }
  ],
  "thematics": [
    {
      "slug": "climate-energy-resources",
      "label": "Climate, energy and resources"
    },
    {
      "slug": "ai-cyber-digital",
      "label": "AI, cyber and digital"
    },
    {
      "slug": "demographics-human-capital",
      "label": "Demographics and human capital"
    },
    {
      "slug": "economic-security-supply-chains",
      "label": "Economic security and supply chains"
    },
    {
      "slug": "resilience-crisis-preparedness",
      "label": "Resilience and crisis preparedness"
    },
    {
      "slug": "information-integrity-social-cohesion",
      "label": "Information integrity and social cohesion"
    }
  ],
  "lenses": [
    {
      "key": "political",
      "label": "Political"
    },
    {
      "key": "economic",
      "label": "Economic"
    },
    {
      "key": "social",
      "label": "Social"
    },
    {
      "key": "technological",
      "label": "Technological"
    },
    {
      "key": "legal",
      "label": "Legal"
    },
    {
      "key": "environmental",
      "label": "Environmental"
    }
  ],
  "overview_note": "Overview cells are GINC desk summaries of each scenario's own record: its narrative, transmission channels, loading table and regional rationale. Bold marks the phrase to read first.",
  "dimensions": [
    "Hard",
    "Soft",
    "Economic"
  ],
  "domains": [
    {
      "slug": "defence-security",
      "label": "Defence and security",
      "dimension": "Hard"
    },
    {
      "slug": "strategic-infrastructure",
      "label": "Strategic infrastructure",
      "dimension": "Hard"
    },
    {
      "slug": "critical-technology",
      "label": "Critical technology",
      "dimension": "Hard"
    },
    {
      "slug": "government-effectiveness",
      "label": "Government effectiveness",
      "dimension": "Soft"
    },
    {
      "slug": "human-capital",
      "label": "Human capital",
      "dimension": "Soft"
    },
    {
      "slug": "influence-cohesion",
      "label": "Influence and cohesion",
      "dimension": "Soft"
    },
    {
      "slug": "macro-financial",
      "label": "Macro-financial",
      "dimension": "Economic"
    },
    {
      "slug": "industry-trade-supply",
      "label": "Industry, trade and supply",
      "dimension": "Economic"
    },
    {
      "slug": "energy-resources",
      "label": "Energy and resources",
      "dimension": "Economic"
    }
  ]
}