{
  "id": "S14",
  "slug": "pandemic-novel-pathogen",
  "title": "Pandemic with a novel pathogen",
  "version": "0.2.0",
  "status": "active",
  "orientation": "downside",
  "family": "E",
  "short_title": "Pandemic",
  "thematics": [
    "resilience-crisis-preparedness",
    "demographics-human-capital",
    "economic-security-supply-chains"
  ],
  "likelihood_type": "systemic",
  "likelihood_note": null,
  "scores": {
    "likelihood_2y": {
      "band": 3,
      "rationale": "Estimates of the annual probability of a COVID-scale pandemic run near 2 per cent, giving 1 to 5 per cent over two years."
    },
    "likelihood_10y": {
      "band": 4,
      "rationale": ""
    },
    "impact_systemic": {
      "level": 5,
      "rationale": "On COVID's output loss and Lloyd's extreme case."
    },
    "impact_national": {
      "level": 5,
      "rationale": ""
    },
    "confidence": {
      "level": "medium",
      "reason": ""
    },
    "priority": 15,
    "tier": "I",
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "onset": "rapid (weeks)",
    "duration": "1 year (acute)",
    "warning": "days to weeks",
    "scope": "global",
    "origin": "natural (accidental variant)",
    "external_support": "none in the first six months",
    "policy_response": "current plans",
    "recovery_horizon": "years"
  },
  "summary": "A novel respiratory pathogen with severity between COVID-19 and the 1918 influenza spreads globally; borders close for six months; health systems exceed surge capacity; vaccines take a year. Pandemic ranks first in both the Swiss and Norwegian national risk analyses and is the UK's most likely catastrophic risk. Lloyd's puts the five-year global loss at US$13.6 trillion weighted and up to 6.4 per cent of global GDP in the extreme case. Earlier UK National Risk Register editions assumed an attack rate up to 50 per cent and a case fatality rate up to 2.5 per cent for pandemic influenza.",
  "narrative": {
    "dateline": "November 2028",
    "text": "The cluster is reported on a Thursday; genomic sequences are public by Monday and the case fatality estimate, 1.2 per cent, is three times the number the plans were written for. Borders close in the second week; the closures are porous and the pathogen is already in 30 countries. Intensive-care demand passes capacity in week five in the first affected cities and the triage protocols that were drafted but never adopted are adopted overnight. Oxygen, not ventilators, is the binding constraint this time; then it is staff, as 20 per cent of the health workforce is infected or isolating. Export bans on protective equipment and antivirals return within a month, as they did in 2020, and the countries that had built regional manufacturing in the interim find it matters. Schools close; the learning loss of the previous pandemic is doubled. Vaccines arrive in 11 months for the countries that had pre-purchase agreements and in 20 for the ones that did not. The public health measures are contested from the start, because the last pandemic left half the population distrustful of the institutions asking for compliance. The capability that fails first is not the laboratory; it is the state's ability to be believed."
  },
  "anchors": [
    {
      "shock_id": "covid-19-2020",
      "date": "2020–2022",
      "event": "COVID-19",
      "what_happened": "Global GDP fell 3.1 per cent in 2020; millions of deaths; border closures; export bans on medical goods",
      "calibrates": "Standard Severe economic path"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "1918-influenza",
      "date": "1918–1919",
      "event": "1918 influenza",
      "what_happened": "Tens of millions of deaths; case fatality above 2.5 per cent",
      "calibrates": "Standard Extreme"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "h5n1-in-us-dairy-cattle-2024",
      "date": "2024–2025",
      "event": "H5N1 in US dairy cattle",
      "what_happened": "Spread across hundreds of herds; dozens of human cases; first US death in January 2025",
      "calibrates": "zoonotic warning signal"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "exercise-cygnus-2016",
      "date": "October 2016",
      "event": "Exercise Cygnus",
      "what_happened": "UK pandemic influenza exercise found NHS surge, PPE, social care and excess-death planning inadequate; unpublished until 2020",
      "calibrates": "capability gaps, non-disclosure lesson"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "global-health-security-index-2019",
      "date": "2019 and 2021",
      "event": "Global Health Security Index",
      "what_happened": "Ranked the US first and the UK second before COVID; outcomes did not follow the rankings",
      "calibrates": "capacity versus capability"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "lloyds-human-pandemic-scenario-2024",
      "date": "December 2024",
      "event": "Lloyd's human pandemic scenario",
      "what_happened": "Five-year global loss US$13.6 trillion weighted; up to 6.4 per cent of global GDP in the extreme case; US$396 billion annual expected loss",
      "calibrates": "systemic impact"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "swiss-and-norwegian-national-risk-analyses-2025",
      "date": "2025 and 2019",
      "event": "Swiss and Norwegian national risk analyses",
      "what_happened": "Pandemic first-ranked hazard in both",
      "calibrates": "national-register precedent"
    }
  ],
  "parameters": {
    "common": {
      "severity": {
        "major": "major",
        "severe": "severe",
        "extreme": "extreme"
      },
      "duration": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "1 year (acute)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "onset": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "rapid (weeks)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "warning": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "days to weeks",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "scope": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "global",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "origin": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "natural (accidental variant)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "external_support": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "none in the first six months",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "concurrency": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "standalone",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "policy_response": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "current plans",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "recovery_horizon": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "years",
        "extreme": null
      }
    },
    "specific": [
      {
        "name": "Basic reproduction number",
        "default": "2.5",
        "range": "1.5–5",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Infection fatality rate",
        "default": "1 per cent",
        "range": "0.3–3",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Vaccine lead time",
        "default": "12 months",
        "range": "4–24",
        "unit": "months",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Border closure duration",
        "default": "6 months",
        "range": "1–12",
        "unit": "months",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Health-care surge demand multiple",
        "default": "×3",
        "range": "×1.5 to ×6",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Workforce absence peak",
        "default": "20 per cent",
        "range": "10–40",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "transmission": [
    "International spread before detection.",
    "Health system overload.",
    "Workforce absence across all sectors.",
    "Border closures and supply-chain breaks for medical goods.",
    "School and economic closures.",
    "Fiscal expansion and debt.",
    "Trust and compliance dynamics.",
    "Long-run health, education and labour effects."
  ],
  "loading": [
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "defence-security",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "military medical and logistics support; biosecurity"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "essential services under workforce absence"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "critical-technology",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "genomic surveillance, vaccine and therapeutics manufacturing"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "government-effectiveness",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "public health command, procurement, communication, border policy"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "human-capital",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "health system surge, workforce, education continuity"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "influence-cohesion",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "trust, compliance, information integrity"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "macro-financial",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "fiscal expansion, output loss"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "industry-trade-supply",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "medical goods, export bans, logistics"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "energy-resources",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "demand collapse"
    }
  ],
  "stakeholders": {
    "government": {
      "exposure": "Surge capacity, stockpiles, manufacturing access, communication credibility",
      "actions": [
        "Maintain regional manufacturing and pre-purchase agreements",
        "Exercise triage and oxygen supply",
        "Invest in trust before the event"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "WHO Disease Outbreak News",
        "Zoonotic surveillance"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    },
    "technology": {
      "exposure": "Remote operations, health data, misinformation",
      "actions": [
        "Continuity plans for 20 per cent absence",
        "Health-data interoperability"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Workforce absence indices"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    },
    "investors": {
      "exposure": "Healthcare, travel, sovereign debt",
      "actions": [
        "Scenario on COVID-plus"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Outbreak alerts",
        "Vaccine platform readiness"
      ],
      "relevance": 5
    },
    "public": {
      "exposure": "Health, work and schooling",
      "actions": [
        "Household plans"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Official guidance channels"
      ],
      "relevance": 5
    }
  },
  "regions": [
    {
      "region": "north-america",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Connectivity; trust deficits"
    },
    {
      "region": "europe",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": null
    },
    {
      "region": "china",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Density; prior experience"
    },
    {
      "region": "indo-pacific",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Connectivity; strong prior response capability"
    },
    {
      "region": "south-asia",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Density, health system capacity"
    },
    {
      "region": "gulf-middle-east",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Capital; migrant workforce"
    },
    {
      "region": "africa",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Health system capacity; late vaccine access"
    },
    {
      "region": "latin-america",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": null
    },
    {
      "region": "russia-eurasia",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": null
    }
  ],
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "WHO Disease Outbreak News and PHEIC declarations",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Zoonotic surveillance",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null,
      "note": "H5N1 herd and human case counts"
    },
    {
      "name": "Wastewater surveillance",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Genomic sequence sharing speed",
      "source": "GISAID",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Vaccine platform and manufacturing capacity by region",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "IHR Joint External Evaluation scores",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Trust in health authorities",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    }
  ],
  "compounds": {
    "triggers": [
      {
        "id": "S03",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S04",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S07",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S12",
        "note": "staff"
      },
      {
        "id": "S08",
        "note": "restricted"
      }
    ],
    "triggered_by": [
      {
        "id": "S10",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S11",
        "note": "zoonotic spillover pressures"
      }
    ],
    "amplified_by": [],
    "triggered_by_other": [],
    "amplifying_trends": [
      "antimicrobial resistance",
      "urbanisation",
      "climate change expanding vector ranges",
      "trust erosion"
    ]
  },
  "open_questions": [
    "Whether an engineered or accidental-release variant should be specified separately.",
    "How to score nations whose capability improved after COVID against those whose trust fell.",
    "Whether border closure belongs in Standard Severe given its limited effect in 2020."
  ],
  "commentary": null,
  "overview": {
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2",
    "lenses": {
      "political": "Public health measures are **contested from the start**. The capability that fails first is the state's ability to be believed.",
      "economic": "Borders and economies close and governments borrow. COVID-19 cut global GDP by **3.1 per cent** in 2020.",
      "social": "Schools close and **learning loss doubles**. A fifth of the health workforce is infected or isolating.",
      "technological": "Sequences are public within days. Vaccines arrive in **11 months** with pre-purchase agreements and 20 without.",
      "legal": "**Export bans** on protective equipment and antivirals return within a month; triage protocols are adopted overnight.",
      "environmental": "Spillover from animals is the origin; energy **demand collapses**."
    },
    "regions": {
      "north-america": "Connectivity and **trust deficits**.",
      "europe": "High connectivity; intensive care **passes capacity within weeks** in the first affected cities.",
      "china": "**Density**, and prior experience.",
      "indo-pacific": "Connectivity, with **strong prior response capability**.",
      "south-asia": "Density and **health system capacity**.",
      "gulf-middle-east": "Capital to respond; a large **migrant workforce**.",
      "africa": "Health system capacity and **late vaccine access**.",
      "latin-america": "Surge capacity is exceeded and vaccines **arrive late** without pre-purchase agreements.",
      "russia-eurasia": "Exposed through workforce absence and **medical supply chains**."
    }
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "edition": 2027,
      "rank": 8,
      "L2y": 3,
      "L10y": 4,
      "impact_systemic": 5,
      "impact_national": 5,
      "confidence": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "version": "0.2.0",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "change": "Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores."
    }
  ],
  "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenario S14 Pandemic with a novel pathogen, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/pandemic-novel-pathogen"
}