{
  "edition": 2027,
  "name": "Scenarios 2027",
  "status": "development",
  "version": "2027.0-dev",
  "library_version": "0.4.0",
  "release_date": null,
  "release_note": "TBC January 2027",
  "release_venue": "Davos",
  "framing": "A stable, versioned library of severe but plausible shocks, specified on a common grammar, rated for likelihood and impact and mapped to the capabilities each one stresses.",
  "horizons": {
    "likelihood_2y": "to end-2028",
    "likelihood_10y": "to end-2036"
  },
  "scores_source": "ginc-desk-v0.2",
  "scores_note": "Scores are provisional GINC desk scores. They exist so the site can be built and tested. The 2027 Edition replaces them with the results of the structured expert elicitation.",
  "panel": null,
  "previous_edition": null,
  "paper_url": null,
  "data_url": "/data/",
  "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenarios 2027: Scenario Library v0.4. Oxford: Global Institute for National Capability. scenarios.ginc.org/2027",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "rank": 1,
      "id": "S03",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "rank": 2,
      "id": "S05",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "rank": 3,
      "id": "S02",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "rank": 4,
      "id": "S07",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "rank": 5,
      "id": "S01",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "rank": 6,
      "id": "S09",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "rank": 7,
      "id": "S13",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "rank": 8,
      "id": "S14",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "rank": 9,
      "id": "S11",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "rank": 10,
      "id": "S04",
      "movement": "new"
    }
  ],
  "library_only": [
    {
      "id": "S10",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S06",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S08",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S12",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S15",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S16",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S17",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S18",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S19",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S20",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S21",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S22",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S23",
      "movement": "new"
    },
    {
      "id": "S24",
      "movement": "new"
    }
  ],
  "judgements": [
    {
      "ids": [
        "S04",
        "S10"
      ],
      "note": "S04 and S10 tie on priority, systemic impact and confidence; S04 takes the tenth place on the current debt-distress and aid-withdrawal context."
    },
    {
      "ids": [
        "S13"
      ],
      "note": "S13 is ranked seventh as drafted, on a stated priority of 16. The published arithmetic gives 12 (L2y 3 × impact 4), which is Tier II and would place it outside the ten. The rank is kept as drafted and the difference is referred to the review committee."
    },
    {
      "ids": [
        "S15",
        "S16",
        "S17",
        "S18",
        "S19",
        "S20",
        "S21",
        "S22",
        "S23",
        "S24"
      ],
      "note": "Ten upside scenarios entered the Library, five at v0.3 and five at v0.4. They are rated on the same scales but not ranked: the ranked ten order downside risk, and a priority score would read a large gain as a large threat."
    }
  ],
  "ranking_basis": "Provisional ranking by priority score with the published tie-break rules. This is the development default; the panel's results replace it before release.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "n": 1,
      "placeholder": true,
      "text": "The two highest-priority shocks are economic and maritime, and both struck in 2025–2026."
    },
    {
      "n": 2,
      "placeholder": true,
      "text": "The scenarios most likely to break a nation are idiosyncratic (legitimacy, sovereign funding, disaster) and do not appear in global risk rankings."
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "placeholder": true,
      "text": "Every Tier I scenario loads government effectiveness at High, which is the capability the Blavatnik Index measures."
    }
  ]
}