{
  "id": "S08",
  "slug": "mass-displacement-shock",
  "title": "Mass displacement shock",
  "version": "0.2.0",
  "status": "active",
  "orientation": "downside",
  "family": "B",
  "short_title": "Mass displacement",
  "thematics": [
    "demographics-human-capital",
    "resilience-crisis-preparedness",
    "information-integrity-social-cohesion"
  ],
  "likelihood_type": "idiosyncratic",
  "likelihood_note": "clustered around conflicts",
  "scores": {
    "likelihood_2y": {
      "band": 3,
      "rationale": "A handful of nations a year receive arrivals above 1 per cent of population; the per-nation base rate is 1 to 2 per cent a year, higher for neighbours of active conflicts."
    },
    "likelihood_10y": {
      "band": 4,
      "rationale": ""
    },
    "impact_systemic": {
      "level": 2,
      "rationale": ""
    },
    "impact_national": {
      "level": 4,
      "rationale": "Services and cohesion strained but recoverable."
    },
    "confidence": {
      "level": "medium",
      "reason": ""
    },
    "priority": 12,
    "tier": "II",
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "onset": "rapid (weeks)",
    "duration": "1 year (arrivals)",
    "warning": "days to months",
    "scope": "regional",
    "origin": "natural or adversarial (war, state collapse)",
    "external_support": "partial",
    "policy_response": "current plans",
    "recovery_horizon": "years"
  },
  "summary": "A nation receives arrivals equal to 1 to 3 per cent of its population within 12 months, from a neighbouring war, a disaster or a state collapse. Housing, health, schooling, labour markets and social cohesion are loaded at once, and the fiscal cost lands before any international burden-sharing. Switzerland ranks 'people seeking protection' fourth of 44 hazards; the WEF lists involuntary migration among its global risks. v0.2 added this scenario because v0.1 had no demographic shock.",
  "narrative": {
    "dateline": "April 2028",
    "text": "The border crossing that handled 2,000 people a day is handling 60,000 by the end of the first week. The reception plan assumed 50,000 arrivals over a year; that number passes in eleven days. Sports halls, then schools, then a disused airport become shelters. Municipalities that lost their last paediatrician years ago register 4,000 children in a month. The labour ministry fast-tracks work permits and discovers the credential-recognition system takes nine months. Rents in border cities rise 20 per cent by summer; a political party built on that number polls third by autumn. Hospitals absorb a population of patients with interrupted treatment and no records. International pledges are announced at a conference and arrive, in part, the following year. Two years on, a quarter of the arrivals have gone home, a quarter have moved on, and half are a permanent part of a country that did not plan for them and whose economy, it turns out, needed them."
  },
  "anchors": [
    {
      "shock_id": "ukraine-2022",
      "date": "2022",
      "event": "Ukraine",
      "what_happened": "About 8 million refugees across Europe; Poland registered roughly 1.5 million within weeks, about 4 per cent of its population",
      "calibrates": "Standard Severe arrival rate"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "europe-2015",
      "date": "2015–2016",
      "event": "Europe",
      "what_happened": "Around 1.3 million asylum applications in the EU in 2015; political consequences lasted a decade",
      "calibrates": "political channel"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "sudan-2023",
      "date": "2023–2025",
      "event": "Sudan",
      "what_happened": "Over 12 million displaced; Chad and Egypt received millions",
      "calibrates": "low-income receiving states"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "venezuela-2015",
      "date": "2015–2024",
      "event": "Venezuela",
      "what_happened": "About 7.7 million left; Colombia received around 2.8 million",
      "calibrates": "protracted regional displacement"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "swiss-national-risk-analysis-2025",
      "date": "2025",
      "event": "Switzerland national risk analysis",
      "what_happened": "'People seeking protection' ranked fourth of 44 hazards by expected loss",
      "calibrates": "national-register precedent"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "turkiye-2011",
      "date": "2011–2016",
      "event": "Türkiye",
      "what_happened": "Around 3.6 million Syrians registered",
      "calibrates": "largest single host"
    }
  ],
  "parameters": {
    "common": {
      "severity": {
        "major": "major",
        "severe": "severe",
        "extreme": "extreme"
      },
      "duration": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "1 year (arrivals)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "onset": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "rapid (weeks)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "warning": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "days to months",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "scope": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "regional",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "origin": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "natural or adversarial (war, state collapse)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "external_support": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "partial",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "concurrency": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "standalone",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "policy_response": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "current plans",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "recovery_horizon": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "years",
        "extreme": null
      }
    },
    "specific": [
      {
        "name": "Arrivals as share of population",
        "default": "2 per cent",
        "range": "0.5–5",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Arrival window",
        "default": "6 months",
        "range": "1–12",
        "unit": "months",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Origin",
        "default": "neighbouring war",
        "range": "options: disaster / state collapse / climate",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Legal regime",
        "default": "temporary protection",
        "range": "options: asylum backlog / closed border",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "International burden-sharing",
        "default": "partial",
        "range": "none–full",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Return rate within two years",
        "default": "25 per cent",
        "range": "0–60",
        "unit": "per cent",
        "note": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "transmission": [
    "Border and reception overload.",
    "Shelter, health and schooling demand spikes.",
    "Fiscal cost precedes external support.",
    "Housing and labour-market pressure in receiving regions.",
    "Political mobilisation and cohesion strain.",
    "Long-run integration or exclusion outcomes."
  ],
  "loading": [
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "defence-security",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "border management, registration, security screening"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "housing, transport, utilities in receiving regions"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "critical-technology",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "registration and identity systems"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "government-effectiveness",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "reception, legal processing, inter-governmental coordination"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "human-capital",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "health, education, credential recognition, labour integration"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "influence-cohesion",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "social cohesion, political stability, international solidarity"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "macro-financial",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "fiscal cost; later labour-supply gains"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "industry-trade-supply",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "labour-market matching"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "energy-resources",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "utility demand"
    }
  ],
  "stakeholders": {
    "government": {
      "exposure": "Reception capacity and legal regime",
      "actions": [
        "Surge plans scaled to 2 per cent of population",
        "Pre-agreed EU or regional burden-sharing",
        "Fast credential recognition"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "UNHCR displacement data from neighbours",
        "Border crossing counts"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    },
    "technology": {
      "exposure": "Registration, identity, payments and connectivity for arrivals",
      "actions": [
        "Interoperable registration systems"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "SIM registrations"
      ],
      "relevance": 2
    },
    "investors": {
      "exposure": "Housing, municipal finance, labour supply",
      "actions": [
        "Regional exposure in real estate and local-government debt"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Rent indices in border regions"
      ],
      "relevance": 2
    },
    "public": {
      "exposure": "Housing, schools, services",
      "actions": [
        "Community reception networks"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Municipal capacity announcements"
      ],
      "relevance": 5
    }
  },
  "regions": [
    {
      "region": "north-america",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Western Hemisphere displacement"
    },
    {
      "region": "europe",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Ukraine, Middle East, Africa routes"
    },
    {
      "region": "china",
      "exposure": "Low",
      "rationale": null
    },
    {
      "region": "indo-pacific",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Myanmar, Pacific climate displacement"
    },
    {
      "region": "south-asia",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Afghanistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh"
    },
    {
      "region": "gulf-middle-east",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Gaza"
    },
    {
      "region": "africa",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Sudan, Sahel, DRC, Horn"
    },
    {
      "region": "latin-america",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Venezuela, Haiti"
    },
    {
      "region": "russia-eurasia",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": null
    }
  ],
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "UNHCR and IOM displacement figures in neighbouring states",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Border crossing counts",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Asylum application backlogs",
      "source": "Eurostat",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Reception capacity utilisation",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Rent indices in receiving regions",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "ACLED conflict intensity in origin states",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Drought and famine early warning",
      "source": "FEWS NET",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    }
  ],
  "compounds": {
    "triggers": [
      {
        "id": "S07",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S04",
        "note": "fiscal"
      }
    ],
    "triggered_by": [
      {
        "id": "S10",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S11",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S14",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S07",
        "note": "in origin state"
      },
      {
        "id": "S06",
        "note": "instrumentalised"
      }
    ],
    "amplified_by": [],
    "triggered_by_other": [],
    "amplifying_trends": [
      "conflict count at post-war highs",
      "climate stress",
      "demographic pressure in origin states"
    ]
  },
  "open_questions": [
    "Whether outward displacement (the origin state losing 10 per cent of its people) needs its own scenario.",
    "How to credit long-run labour gains in a shock scenario.",
    "Whether climate displacement is S08 or a trend."
  ],
  "commentary": null,
  "overview": {
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2",
    "lenses": {
      "political": "Rents in border cities rise 20 per cent by summer; a party **built on that number** polls third by autumn.",
      "economic": "The **fiscal cost lands first**. Pledges arrive, in part, the following year; later the economy turns out to have needed the arrivals.",
      "social": "Sports halls, schools and a disused airport become shelters. Municipalities register **4,000 children in a month**.",
      "technological": "Registration and **identity systems** carry the load, with payments and connectivity for arrivals.",
      "legal": "Work permits are fast-tracked; **credential recognition takes nine months**.",
      "environmental": "Utility demand rises in receiving regions. Disaster and climate are among the **origins**."
    },
    "regions": {
      "north-america": "**Western Hemisphere** displacement.",
      "europe": "Ukraine, Middle East and Africa routes. Poland registered about **1.5 million within weeks** in 2022.",
      "china": "Rated **Low**.",
      "indo-pacific": "**Myanmar** and Pacific climate displacement.",
      "south-asia": "**Afghanistan, Myanmar and Bangladesh**.",
      "gulf-middle-east": "**Syria, Sudan, Yemen and Gaza**.",
      "africa": "Sudan, the Sahel, DRC and the Horn. **Chad and Egypt** have received millions.",
      "latin-america": "Venezuela and Haiti. **Colombia** has received around 2.8 million.",
      "russia-eurasia": "Neighbours of conflicts receive arrivals ahead of any **burden-sharing**."
    }
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "edition": 2027,
      "rank": null,
      "L2y": 3,
      "L10y": 4,
      "impact_systemic": 2,
      "impact_national": 4,
      "confidence": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "version": "0.2.0",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "change": "Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores."
    }
  ],
  "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenario S08 Mass displacement shock, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/mass-displacement-shock"
}