{
  "id": "S11",
  "slug": "food-water-system-shock",
  "title": "Food and water system shock",
  "version": "0.2.0",
  "status": "active",
  "orientation": "downside",
  "family": "C",
  "short_title": "Food and water shock",
  "thematics": [
    "climate-energy-resources",
    "economic-security-supply-chains",
    "information-integrity-social-cohesion"
  ],
  "likelihood_type": "systemic",
  "likelihood_note": null,
  "scores": {
    "likelihood_2y": {
      "band": 3,
      "rationale": "A two-breadbasket failure with bans is rarer than single-country shocks; 2022–2023 came close on rice and wheat."
    },
    "likelihood_10y": {
      "band": 4,
      "rationale": "Under climate change."
    },
    "impact_systemic": {
      "level": 3,
      "rationale": "On Lloyd's estimate."
    },
    "impact_national": {
      "level": 5,
      "rationale": "For import-dependent low-income states."
    },
    "confidence": {
      "level": "medium",
      "reason": "Climate attribution and policy responses are uncertain."
    },
    "priority": 15,
    "tier": "I",
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "onset": "gradual (one season)",
    "duration": "1 year (two seasons)",
    "warning": "months",
    "scope": "global",
    "origin": "natural with adversarial export bans or water weaponisation",
    "external_support": "partial",
    "policy_response": "current plans",
    "recovery_horizon": "years"
  },
  "summary": "Simultaneous crop failures in two major exporting regions, compounded by export bans, double staple prices for two seasons; or an upstream state restricts a shared river. v0.2 split this from the climate scenario because the Lloyd's food and water shock (US$5 trillion over five years) and Eurasia Group's 2026 'water weapon' show it as a distinct systemic risk, and because India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in April 2025 made water a live instrument.",
  "narrative": {
    "dateline": "August 2028",
    "text": "The two breadbaskets fail in the same season: drought in one, floods at harvest in the other. Wheat and rice prices are up 80 per cent by the time the second crop report is published and the first exporter to ban shipments does so 'to protect domestic consumers'; four more follow within a month. Importing governments that hold 90 days of grain discover that the ships they had contracted have been resold. Bread prices rise 50 per cent in the cities that toppled governments over bread in 2011; subsidies that already cost 2 per cent of GDP double. Upstream, a government opens and closes the gates on a shared river to the schedule of its own farmers and tells its neighbour to take the matter to a treaty body it has suspended. Fertiliser is the second wave: the energy shock has closed ammonia plants and the next planting season starts short. Humanitarian appeals are funded at a third. The nations that come through are the ones with reserves of the right grains in the right places, functioning safety nets and farmers who could switch crops in a season."
  },
  "anchors": [
    {
      "shock_id": "black-sea-grain-disruption-2022",
      "date": "2022",
      "event": "Black Sea grain disruption",
      "what_happened": "Wheat and sunflower exports from Ukraine blocked; prices spiked; the grain corridor restored partial flows",
      "calibrates": "export shock"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "india-rice-export-ban-2023",
      "date": "July 2023",
      "event": "India rice export ban",
      "what_happened": "Non-basmati white rice exports banned; global rice prices at 15-year highs",
      "calibrates": "export bans by major exporters"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "russian-wheat-export-ban-2010",
      "date": "2010",
      "event": "Russian wheat export ban",
      "what_happened": "Drought-driven ban; prices rose ahead of the 2011 unrest",
      "calibrates": "food–politics channel"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "indus-waters-treaty-suspension-2025",
      "date": "23 April 2025",
      "event": "Indus Waters Treaty suspension",
      "what_happened": "India placed the treaty in abeyance after the Pahalgam attack",
      "calibrates": "water weaponisation"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "panama-canal-drought-2023",
      "date": "2023–2024",
      "event": "Panama Canal drought",
      "what_happened": "Transits restricted by low reservoir levels",
      "calibrates": "water–trade channel"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "cape-town-day-zero-2018",
      "date": "2018",
      "event": "Cape Town 'Day Zero'",
      "what_happened": "City-scale water rationing narrowly averted",
      "calibrates": "urban water failure"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "lloyds-food-and-water-shock-scenario-2023",
      "date": "October 2023",
      "event": "Lloyd's food and water shock scenario",
      "what_happened": "Five-year global loss US$5 trillion; Greater China and Asia Pacific most exposed; the Caribbean losing 19 per cent of GDP",
      "calibrates": "systemic impact"
    }
  ],
  "parameters": {
    "common": {
      "severity": {
        "major": "major",
        "severe": "severe",
        "extreme": "extreme"
      },
      "duration": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "1 year (two seasons)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "onset": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "gradual (one season)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "warning": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "months",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "scope": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "global",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "origin": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "natural with adversarial export bans or water weaponisation",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "external_support": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "partial",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "concurrency": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "standalone",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "policy_response": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "current plans",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "recovery_horizon": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "years",
        "extreme": null
      }
    },
    "specific": [
      {
        "name": "Breadbaskets failing",
        "default": "2",
        "range": "1–3",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Export bans by major exporters",
        "default": "yes",
        "range": null,
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Staple price multiple",
        "default": "×1.8",
        "range": "×1.3 to ×3",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Water weaponisation",
        "default": "one basin",
        "range": "options: none / multiple",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Duration",
        "default": "two seasons",
        "range": "1–4",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Fertiliser disruption",
        "default": "partial",
        "range": null,
        "unit": null,
        "note": "coupled to S09"
      }
    ]
  },
  "transmission": [
    "Harvest failure and price spike.",
    "Export bans amplify scarcity for importers.",
    "Reserve inadequacy and resale of contracted cargoes.",
    "Subsidy cost and fiscal stress.",
    "Urban unrest and political consequences.",
    "Fertiliser shortfall carries the shock into the next season.",
    "Transboundary water disputes escalate."
  ],
  "loading": [
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "defence-security",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "water-dispute escalation; unrest"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "storage, irrigation, water treatment, ports"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "critical-technology",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "agritech and forecasting"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "government-effectiveness",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "reserves, safety nets, price policy, treaty diplomacy"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "human-capital",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "nutrition, child health, schooling"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "influence-cohesion",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "urban unrest, regional relations"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "macro-financial",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "subsidies, current account, inflation"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "industry-trade-supply",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "import logistics, agricultural output"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "energy-resources",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "water, land, fertiliser"
    }
  ],
  "stakeholders": {
    "government": {
      "exposure": "Reserve policy by grain, safety-net triggers, water treaties",
      "actions": [
        "Hold physical reserves where the people are",
        "Index transfers to prices",
        "Diversify import origins",
        "Pre-negotiate basin rules"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "FAO Food Price Index",
        "Stocks-to-use ratios",
        "Reservoir levels"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    },
    "technology": {
      "exposure": "Forecasting, irrigation, cold chain",
      "actions": [
        "Yield and water analytics for governments"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Crop condition indices"
      ],
      "relevance": 2
    },
    "investors": {
      "exposure": "Agribusiness, sovereigns of food importers, fertiliser",
      "actions": [
        "Scenario on ×1.8 staples"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Export-ban announcements"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    },
    "public": {
      "exposure": "Prices and availability",
      "actions": [],
      "watch": [
        "Subsidy and ration announcements"
      ],
      "relevance": 5
    }
  },
  "regions": [
    {
      "region": "north-america",
      "exposure": "Low",
      "rationale": "Exporter"
    },
    {
      "region": "europe",
      "exposure": "Low",
      "rationale": "Medium for water stress in the south"
    },
    {
      "region": "china",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Imports of soy, feed; water stress in the north"
    },
    {
      "region": "indo-pacific",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Rice importers; Pacific islands"
    },
    {
      "region": "south-asia",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Indus and Ganges–Brahmaputra basins; rice and wheat"
    },
    {
      "region": "gulf-middle-east",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Import dependence above 80 per cent for staples; Nile, Tigris–Euphrates"
    },
    {
      "region": "africa",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Sahel, Horn, Nile; fertiliser"
    },
    {
      "region": "latin-america",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Caribbean import dependence; Central American dry corridor"
    },
    {
      "region": "russia-eurasia",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Central Asian water; exporter windfalls"
    }
  ],
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "FAO Food Price Index",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Stocks-to-use ratios",
      "source": "USDA, AMIS",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Export restriction tracker",
      "source": "IFPRI",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "FEWS NET and IPC phase classifications",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Reservoir levels and SPEI drought index",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Fertiliser prices",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Transboundary basin incident reports",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Food subsidy budgets",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    }
  ],
  "compounds": {
    "triggers": [
      {
        "id": "S07",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S08",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S04",
        "note": null
      }
    ],
    "triggered_by": [
      {
        "id": "S09",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S10",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S05",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S01",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S02",
        "note": "fertiliser"
      }
    ],
    "amplified_by": [],
    "triggered_by_other": [],
    "amplifying_trends": [
      "climate change",
      "water stress",
      "export concentration in a few breadbaskets",
      "population growth in import-dependent regions"
    ]
  },
  "open_questions": [
    "Whether water weaponisation should be its own scenario.",
    "How to represent exporters that gain.",
    "Whether to rate at the two-breadbasket or one-breadbasket level as Standard Severe."
  ],
  "commentary": null,
  "overview": {
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2",
    "lenses": {
      "political": "Exporters ban shipments 'to protect domestic consumers'. Upstream, a government **opens and closes the gates** on a shared river.",
      "economic": "Wheat and rice are up **80 per cent**. Subsidies costing 2 per cent of GDP double and contracted ships are resold.",
      "social": "Bread prices rise 50 per cent in the cities that **toppled governments over bread** in 2011.",
      "technological": "**Agritech and forecasting** carry a low load; farmers who can switch crops in a season come through.",
      "legal": "The neighbour is told to take the matter to **a treaty body that has been suspended**.",
      "environmental": "Drought in one breadbasket and floods at harvest in the other. **Fertiliser** is the second wave."
    },
    "regions": {
      "north-america": "Rated **Low**: an exporter.",
      "europe": "Low exposure; **water stress in the south**.",
      "china": "Imports of soy and feed; **water stress in the north**.",
      "indo-pacific": "**Rice importers** and Pacific islands.",
      "south-asia": "The **Indus and Ganges–Brahmaputra** basins; rice and wheat.",
      "gulf-middle-east": "Import dependence **above 80 per cent** for staples; the Nile and Tigris–Euphrates.",
      "africa": "The **Sahel, Horn and Nile**; fertiliser.",
      "latin-america": "Caribbean import dependence; the Central American **dry corridor**.",
      "russia-eurasia": "Central Asian water; **exporter windfalls**."
    }
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "edition": 2027,
      "rank": 9,
      "L2y": 3,
      "L10y": 4,
      "impact_systemic": 3,
      "impact_national": 5,
      "confidence": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "version": "0.2.0",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "change": "Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores."
    }
  ],
  "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenario S11 Food and water system shock, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/food-water-system-shock"
}