{
  "id": "S07",
  "slug": "political-legitimacy-crisis",
  "title": "Political legitimacy crisis",
  "version": "0.2.0",
  "status": "active",
  "orientation": "downside",
  "family": "B",
  "short_title": "Legitimacy crisis",
  "thematics": [
    "information-integrity-social-cohesion",
    "resilience-crisis-preparedness"
  ],
  "likelihood_type": "idiosyncratic",
  "likelihood_note": null,
  "scores": {
    "likelihood_2y": {
      "band": 4,
      "rationale": "Five to eight governments a year fell to protest or coup in 2024–2025 across 197 nations, and contested elections short of collapse are more frequent still."
    },
    "likelihood_10y": {
      "band": 5,
      "rationale": ""
    },
    "impact_systemic": {
      "level": 2,
      "rationale": "Unless the nation is a great power."
    },
    "impact_national": {
      "level": 5,
      "rationale": "Capability becomes unusable."
    },
    "confidence": {
      "level": "medium",
      "reason": "Definitions of 'crisis' vary."
    },
    "priority": 20,
    "tier": "I",
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "onset": "rapid (weeks)",
    "duration": "1 year",
    "warning": "months",
    "scope": "national",
    "origin": "accidental (endogenous) with adversarial interference",
    "external_support": "partial",
    "policy_response": "current plans",
    "recovery_horizon": "years"
  },
  "summary": "A contested election, court ruling, succession or austerity decision tips into a crisis of legitimacy: sustained disinformation and foreign interference, mass protest, fracture in the security forces, and institutional trust falling below the level at which the state can act. The scenario reworks v0.1's 'foreign interference and information collapse' to include the internal-order dimension that 2024–2025 made unavoidable: annulled elections, governments toppled by youth-led protest, and (per CFR's 2026 survey) political violence in the United States rated a top-tier contingency.",
  "narrative": {
    "dateline": "September 2027",
    "text": "The count is slow in two provinces and that is enough. By midnight, a video of ballots in a van has twelve million views; by morning it has been debunked and the debunking has a tenth of the reach. The losing side declares the result stolen before it is declared. Protests begin as a vigil and become an occupation. The police commissioner in the capital resigns rather than clear the square; two regional commanders announce they will 'protect the constitution', without saying which side that puts them on. The constitutional court annuls the first round on the strength of an intelligence report about foreign-funded influencers; half the country reads this as rescue and half as coup. Foreign accounts amplify both halves. Investors move first: the currency falls 15 per cent and the bond auction is cancelled. The civil service keeps the lights on for a while, then starts asking who is authorised to sign. Six months later there is a new government, a boycotted parliament and an electoral commission that no one trusts to run the next vote. The country's capability has not changed on paper. Its ability to use it has."
  },
  "anchors": [
    {
      "shock_id": "romanias-annulled-presidential-election-2024",
      "date": "6 December 2024",
      "event": "Romania's annulled presidential election",
      "what_happened": "Constitutional Court annulled the first round over foreign interference findings",
      "calibrates": "interference and judicial response"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "bangladesh-2024",
      "date": "July–August 2024",
      "event": "Bangladesh",
      "what_happened": "Student protests toppled the government; prime minister fled on 5 August",
      "calibrates": "protest-driven collapse"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "nepal-2025",
      "date": "September 2025",
      "event": "Nepal",
      "what_happened": "Youth-led protests; prime minister resigned within days",
      "calibrates": "speed of collapse"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "madagascar-2025",
      "date": "14 October 2025",
      "event": "Madagascar",
      "what_happened": "Military took power after weeks of protest; president fled",
      "calibrates": "security-force fracture"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "united-states-capitol-2021",
      "date": "6 January 2021",
      "event": "United States Capitol",
      "what_happened": "Contested certification; violent intrusion",
      "calibrates": "advanced-democracy variant"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "brasilia-2023",
      "date": "8 January 2023",
      "event": "Brasília",
      "what_happened": "Attack on government buildings after a disputed result",
      "calibrates": "advanced-democracy variant"
    },
    {
      "shock_id": "cfr-preventive-priorities-survey-2026-2025",
      "date": "December 2025",
      "event": "CFR Preventive Priorities Survey 2026",
      "what_happened": "Political violence and civil unrest in the US among five Tier I contingencies; 28 of 30 scenarios rated at least 50 per cent likely",
      "calibrates": "expert likelihood"
    }
  ],
  "parameters": {
    "common": {
      "severity": {
        "major": "major",
        "severe": "severe",
        "extreme": "extreme"
      },
      "duration": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "1 year",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "onset": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "rapid (weeks)",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "warning": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "months",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "scope": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "national",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "origin": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "accidental (endogenous) with adversarial interference",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "external_support": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "partial",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "concurrency": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "standalone",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "policy_response": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "current plans",
        "extreme": null
      },
      "recovery_horizon": {
        "major": null,
        "severe": "years",
        "extreme": null
      }
    },
    "specific": [
      {
        "name": "Trigger",
        "default": "contested election",
        "range": "options: court ruling / succession / austerity / corruption revelation",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Trust threshold breached",
        "default": "trust in government below 25 per cent",
        "range": "20–35",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Security-force cohesion",
        "default": "fractured",
        "range": "options: loyal / defecting",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Foreign interference intensity",
        "default": "high",
        "range": "low–high",
        "unit": null,
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Duration to new settlement",
        "default": "9 months",
        "range": "3–24",
        "unit": "months",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "name": "Violence level",
        "default": "sporadic",
        "range": null,
        "unit": null,
        "note": "sustained at Extreme"
      }
    ]
  },
  "transmission": [
    "Disputed outcome and information cascade.",
    "Mass mobilisation and counter-mobilisation.",
    "Security-force hesitation or fracture.",
    "Judicial and electoral institutions lose authority.",
    "Capital flight and funding stress.",
    "Administrative paralysis; policy capability unused.",
    "Settlement with reduced legitimacy; recurrence risk."
  ],
  "loading": [
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "defence-security",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "internal security, civil–military relations"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "protest disruption of transport and energy"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Hard",
      "domain": "critical-technology",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "platform governance; electoral cyber security"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "government-effectiveness",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "electoral administration, rule of law, continuity of government"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "human-capital",
      "load": "Medium",
      "channel": "emigration of professionals; education disruption"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Soft",
      "domain": "influence-cohesion",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "information integrity, social cohesion, international standing"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "macro-financial",
      "load": "High",
      "channel": "capital flight, funding costs"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "industry-trade-supply",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "strikes and disruption"
    },
    {
      "dimension": "Economic",
      "domain": "energy-resources",
      "load": "Low",
      "channel": "subsidy politics"
    }
  ],
  "stakeholders": {
    "government": {
      "exposure": "Electoral administration, crisis communications, security-force doctrine",
      "actions": [
        "Pre-commit to result-verification protocols",
        "Rapid-response information units",
        "Lawful protest management plans"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Trust surveys",
        "Protest counts",
        "Platform takedowns"
      ],
      "relevance": 5
    },
    "technology": {
      "exposure": "Platforms, electoral systems, telecoms",
      "actions": [
        "Election integrity programmes",
        "Transparency of political advertising",
        "Resilience of electoral infrastructure"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "Coordinated inauthentic behaviour"
      ],
      "relevance": 2
    },
    "investors": {
      "exposure": "Sovereign and currency",
      "actions": [
        "Governance risk in sovereign models"
      ],
      "watch": [
        "V-Dem and Freedom House trajectories",
        "CDS around elections"
      ],
      "relevance": 3
    },
    "public": {
      "exposure": "Information diet and safety",
      "actions": [],
      "watch": [
        "Official results channels",
        "Curfews"
      ],
      "relevance": 4
    }
  },
  "regions": [
    {
      "region": "north-america",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "CFR Tier I"
    },
    {
      "region": "europe",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Romania, Georgia, Serbia precedents"
    },
    {
      "region": "china",
      "exposure": "Low",
      "rationale": "Different pathway"
    },
    {
      "region": "indo-pacific",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": null
    },
    {
      "region": "south-asia",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka"
    },
    {
      "region": "gulf-middle-east",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": null
    },
    {
      "region": "africa",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Coups and protest-driven collapses"
    },
    {
      "region": "latin-america",
      "exposure": "High",
      "rationale": "Peru, Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador"
    },
    {
      "region": "russia-eurasia",
      "exposure": "Medium",
      "rationale": "Georgia, Armenia, Belarus"
    }
  ],
  "indicators": [
    {
      "name": "ACLED protest and riot counts",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Edelman and OECD trust surveys",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "V-Dem electoral democracy index changes",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Electoral commission independence ratings",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Coordinated inauthentic behaviour takedowns",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Internet shutdown counts",
      "source": "Access Now",
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Security-force statements",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    },
    {
      "name": "Sovereign CDS around electoral dates",
      "source": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "cadence": null
    }
  ],
  "compounds": {
    "triggers": [
      {
        "id": "S04",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S08",
        "note": "outward"
      },
      {
        "id": "S01",
        "note": "populist trade turn"
      }
    ],
    "triggered_by": [
      {
        "id": "S03",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S09",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S11",
        "note": "price shocks"
      },
      {
        "id": "S06",
        "note": null
      },
      {
        "id": "S14",
        "note": null
      }
    ],
    "amplified_by": [],
    "triggered_by_other": [],
    "amplifying_trends": [
      "polarisation",
      "inequality",
      "erosion of civic freedoms",
      "platform-mediated information"
    ]
  },
  "open_questions": [
    "Where the line between S07 and S06 sits when interference is the trigger.",
    "Whether advanced democracies and fragile states should share one scenario.",
    "How to rate the US case without appearing partisan."
  ],
  "commentary": null,
  "overview": {
    "source": "ginc-desk-v0.2",
    "lenses": {
      "political": "The count is slow in two provinces. Half the country reads the court's ruling as **rescue** and half as **coup**.",
      "economic": "Investors move first: the currency falls **15 per cent** and the bond auction is cancelled.",
      "social": "A vigil becomes an **occupation**. Trust falls below the level at which the state can act.",
      "technological": "A video has twelve million views by midnight; the **debunking has a tenth of the reach**. Foreign accounts amplify both sides.",
      "legal": "The constitutional court **annuls the first round**. No one trusts the electoral commission to run the next vote.",
      "environmental": "Protest disrupts transport and energy; **subsidy politics** sharpen."
    },
    "regions": {
      "north-america": "Political violence is rated a **Tier I contingency** in CFR's 2026 survey.",
      "europe": "**Romania, Georgia and Serbia** are the precedents.",
      "china": "Rated **Low**: a different pathway.",
      "indo-pacific": "Contested elections and successions are the **likelier triggers**.",
      "south-asia": "Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka: **youth-led protest** has toppled governments within days.",
      "gulf-middle-east": "Succession and **austerity decisions** are the likelier triggers.",
      "africa": "**Coups and protest-driven collapses**. In Madagascar the military took power after weeks of protest.",
      "latin-america": "**Peru, Bolivia, Venezuela and Ecuador** are the precedents.",
      "russia-eurasia": "**Georgia, Armenia and Belarus** are the precedents."
    }
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "edition": 2027,
      "rank": 4,
      "L2y": 4,
      "L10y": 5,
      "impact_systemic": 2,
      "impact_national": 5,
      "confidence": "medium"
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "version": "0.2.0",
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "change": "Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores."
    }
  ],
  "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenario S07 Political legitimacy crisis, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/political-legitimacy-crisis"
}