{ "version": "0.2.0", "status": "Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted.", "load": { "points": { "High": 3, "Medium": 1.5, "Low": 0.75 }, "points_note": "A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band.", "off_focus": "A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.", "exposure": { "High": 1, "Medium": 0.6, "Low": 0.3 }, "exposure_note": "Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.", "absorption_max": 0.75, "absorption_note": "Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.", "best_practice_score": 15, "policy_note": "Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).", "exposure_bands": { "High": 0.6, "Medium": 0.35 } }, "capture": { "readiness_note": "Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.", "gainer_above": 10, "loser_below": -10, "exposure_note": "Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does." }, "domain_map": { "defence-security": [ "national-security" ], "strategic-infrastructure": [ "strategic-infrastructure" ], "critical-technology": [ "critical-technology" ], "government-effectiveness": [ "governance-and-integrity" ], "human-capital": [ "human-capital" ], "influence-cohesion": [ "information-and-influence" ], "macro-financial": [ "financial-strength" ], "industry-trade-supply": [ "production-and-innovation", "trade-and-investment" ] }, "energy_resources_groups": [ "energy-infrastructure", "resource-infrastructure", "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure", "energy-technologies" ], "scenarios": { "S01": { "focus": [ "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing", "advanced-materials-and-manufacturing", "trade-policy-and-market-access", "global-value-chain-position", "export-capability-and-sophistication", "economic-leverage-and-dependence", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls", "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks", "monetary-and-currency-capability", "industrial-and-sectoral-base", "trade-facilitation-and-logistics" ], "buffers": [ "economic-leverage-and-dependence", "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks", "trade-policy-and-market-access", "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power", "structural-transformation-and-complexity" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.3, "trade_open": 0.4, "bloc_trade": 0.3 } }, "S02": { "focus": [ "advanced-materials-and-manufacturing", "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing", "biotechnology-and-health-technologies", "global-value-chain-position", "industrial-and-sectoral-base", "advanced-manufacturing", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls", "health-system-capability", "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure", "resource-infrastructure" ], "buffers": [ "advanced-manufacturing", "resource-infrastructure", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "structural-transformation-and-complexity", "economic-leverage-and-dependence" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.4, "industry": 0.35, "trade_open": 0.25 } }, "S03": { "focus": [ "financial-stability-and-crisis-management", "financial-system-depth-and-access", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "financial-regulation-and-integrity", "labour-and-employment", "economic-output-and-productivity", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "political-institutions-and-civic-participation", "investment-attraction-and-projection", "business-dynamism-and-entrepreneurship" ], "buffers": [ "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "financial-stability-and-crisis-management", "monetary-and-currency-capability", "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power", "financial-regulation-and-integrity" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.3, "trade_open": 0.3, "public_debt": 0.25, "services": 0.15 } }, "S04": { "focus": [ "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "monetary-and-currency-capability", "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power", "financial-stability-and-crisis-management", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "health-system-capability", "energy-infrastructure", "trade-facilitation-and-logistics", "political-institutions-and-civic-participation", "internal-security-and-order" ], "buffers": [ "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "monetary-and-currency-capability", "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power", "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.25, "public_debt": 0.3, "low_reserves": 0.3, "low_income": 0.15 } }, "S05": { "focus": [ "maritime-power", "joint-command-projection-and-sustainment", "energy-infrastructure", "resource-infrastructure", "transport-infrastructure", "trade-facilitation-and-logistics", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "alliances-and-security-cooperation", "economic-leverage-and-dependence" ], "buffers": [ "energy-infrastructure", "resource-infrastructure", "maritime-power", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "alliances-and-security-cooperation" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.35, "energy_import": 0.45, "trade_open": 0.2 } }, "S06": { "focus": [ "intelligence-and-assessment", "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations", "air-power", "maritime-power", "communications-and-digital-infrastructure", "energy-infrastructure", "sensing-timing-and-navigation", "internal-security-and-order", "information-environment-and-strategic-communication", "alliances-and-security-cooperation", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management" ], "buffers": [ "intelligence-and-assessment", "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "information-environment-and-strategic-communication", "alliances-and-security-cooperation" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.4, "russia_neighbour": 0.35, "conflict_neighbour": 0.1, "internet": 0.15 }, "exposure_exceptions": { "CHN": 0.2, "PRK": 0.15, "MNG": 0.35, "RUS": 0.3, "BLR": 0.2 }, "exposure_exceptions_note": "A land border with Russia or Belarus raises exposure to a hybrid campaign for most neighbours. These nations are set by hand because the border does not carry that meaning for them." }, "S07": { "focus": [ "political-institutions-and-civic-participation", "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights", "internal-security-and-order", "transparency-oversight-and-accountability", "information-environment-and-strategic-communication", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "monetary-and-currency-capability", "force-generation-and-mobilisation" ], "buffers": [ "political-institutions-and-civic-participation", "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights", "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption", "transparency-oversight-and-accountability", "information-environment-and-strategic-communication" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.4, "youth": 0.2, "youth_unemployment": 0.25, "inflation": 0.15 } }, "S08": { "focus": [ "social-infrastructure", "health-system-capability", "foundational-education", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "internal-security-and-order", "labour-and-employment", "political-institutions-and-civic-participation", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure" ], "buffers": [ "social-infrastructure", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "health-system-capability" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.3, "conflict_neighbour": 0.4, "refugees_hosted": 0.3 } }, "S09": { "focus": [ "energy-infrastructure", "resource-infrastructure", "energy-technologies", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "monetary-and-currency-capability", "industrial-and-sectoral-base", "economic-output-and-productivity", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "economic-leverage-and-dependence" ], "buffers": [ "energy-infrastructure", "energy-technologies", "resource-infrastructure", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.3, "energy_import": 0.6, "industry": 0.1 } }, "S10": { "focus": [ "energy-infrastructure", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure", "transport-infrastructure", "communications-and-digital-infrastructure", "social-infrastructure", "health-system-capability", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "financial-system-depth-and-access" ], "buffers": [ "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "social-infrastructure", "health-system-capability" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.3, "hazard": 0.5, "urban": 0.2 } }, "S11": { "focus": [ "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure", "resource-infrastructure", "population-health", "early-childhood-development", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "trade-facilitation-and-logistics", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "internal-security-and-order", "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks" ], "buffers": [ "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "trade-facilitation-and-logistics" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.3, "food_import": 0.35, "water_stress": 0.25, "youth": 0.1 } }, "S12": { "focus": [ "energy-infrastructure", "communications-and-digital-infrastructure", "financial-infrastructure", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure", "connectivity-cyber-and-trust-technologies", "sensing-timing-and-navigation", "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "industrial-and-sectoral-base", "financial-stability-and-crisis-management" ], "buffers": [ "energy-infrastructure", "communications-and-digital-infrastructure", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations", "connectivity-cyber-and-trust-technologies" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.35, "urban": 0.35, "internet": 0.3 } }, "S13": { "focus": [ "artificial-intelligence", "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing", "digital-and-ai-competence", "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling", "advanced-education", "labour-and-employment", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls", "digital-and-services-trade", "technology-adoption-and-diffusion", "political-institutions-and-civic-participation" ], "buffers": [ "artificial-intelligence", "digital-and-ai-competence", "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling", "technology-adoption-and-diffusion", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.3, "services": 0.4, "internet": 0.3 } }, "S14": { "focus": [ "health-system-capability", "population-health", "biotechnology-and-health-technologies", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "information-environment-and-strategic-communication", "foundational-education", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "trade-facilitation-and-logistics", "labour-and-employment", "social-infrastructure" ], "buffers": [ "health-system-capability", "biotechnology-and-health-technologies", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "information-environment-and-strategic-communication", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance" ], "exposure": { "prior": 0.3, "urban": 0.3, "ageing": 0.2, "trade_open": 0.2 } }, "S15": { "required": [ "artificial-intelligence", "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing", "energy-infrastructure", "communications-and-digital-infrastructure", "digital-and-ai-competence", "research-talent-and-knowledge-creation", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "technology-adoption-and-diffusion", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls" ], "adaptive": [ "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "political-institutions-and-civic-participation", "technology-adoption-and-diffusion" ], "gain": { "north-america": 1, "europe": 0.6, "china": 0.9, "indo-pacific": 0.7, "south-asia": 0.5, "gulf-middle-east": 0.5, "africa": 0.4, "latin-america": 0.4, "russia-eurasia": 0.3 }, "loss": { "north-america": 0.3, "europe": 0.5, "china": 0.3, "indo-pacific": 0.5, "south-asia": 0.7, "gulf-middle-east": 0.3, "africa": 0.3, "latin-america": 0.4, "russia-eurasia": 0.5 }, "loss_basis": "Dependence on services employment, and young workers without openings", "gain_exceptions": { "TWN": 0.9, "KOR": 0.85, "JPN": 0.8, "SGP": 0.8, "ARE": 0.7, "SAU": 0.6, "GBR": 0.75, "ISR": 0.75 }, "loss_exceptions": { "IND": 0.8, "PHL": 0.8, "IRL": 0.6, "USA": 0.3 }, "gain_weights": { "prior": 0.7, "internet": 0.3 }, "loss_weights": { "prior": 0.4, "services": 0.4, "youth_unemployment": 0.2 } }, "S16": { "required": [ "energy-infrastructure", "energy-technologies", "advanced-manufacturing", "transport-infrastructure", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "industrial-and-sectoral-base", "technology-adoption-and-diffusion" ], "adaptive": [ "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power", "structural-transformation-and-complexity", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "export-capability-and-sophistication" ], "gain": { "north-america": 0.6, "europe": 1, "china": 1, "indo-pacific": 0.9, "south-asia": 1, "gulf-middle-east": 0.5, "africa": 0.7, "latin-america": 0.6, "russia-eurasia": 0.4 }, "loss": { "north-america": 0.4, "europe": 0.05, "china": 0.1, "indo-pacific": 0.1, "south-asia": 0.05, "gulf-middle-east": 0.3, "africa": 0.15, "latin-america": 0.2, "russia-eurasia": 0.4 }, "loss_basis": "Oil, gas and coal among a net exporter’s main exports", "gain_exceptions": {}, "loss_exceptions": {}, "gain_weights": { "prior": 0.3, "energy_import": 0.7 }, "loss_weights": { "prior": 0.1, "fuel_export": 0.9 } }, "S17": { "required": [ "health-system-capability", "biotechnology-and-health-technologies", "population-health", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "social-infrastructure", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls" ], "adaptive": [ "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling", "labour-and-employment" ], "gain": { "north-america": 0.8, "europe": 0.7, "china": 0.7, "indo-pacific": 0.7, "south-asia": 0.9, "gulf-middle-east": 0.6, "africa": 1, "latin-america": 0.6, "russia-eurasia": 0.6 }, "loss": { "north-america": 0.3, "europe": 0.5, "china": 0.5, "indo-pacific": 0.3, "south-asia": 0.1, "gulf-middle-east": 0.1, "africa": 0.05, "latin-america": 0.2, "russia-eurasia": 0.4 }, "loss_basis": "Pension and long-term care liabilities in ageing populations", "gain_exceptions": {}, "loss_exceptions": {}, "gain_weights": { "prior": 0.4, "low_life_expectancy": 0.4, "obesity": 0.2 }, "loss_weights": { "prior": 0.3, "ageing": 0.7 } }, "S18": { "required": [ "trade-policy-and-market-access", "export-capability-and-sophistication", "trade-facilitation-and-logistics", "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks", "global-value-chain-position", "investment-attraction-and-projection" ], "adaptive": [ "structural-transformation-and-complexity", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance" ], "gain": { "north-america": 0.6, "europe": 0.8, "china": 1, "indo-pacific": 0.6, "south-asia": 0.4, "gulf-middle-east": 0.5, "africa": 0.5, "latin-america": 0.5, "russia-eurasia": 0.6 }, "loss": { "north-america": 0.4, "europe": 0.3, "china": 0.1, "indo-pacific": 0.4, "south-asia": 0.3, "gulf-middle-east": 0.2, "africa": 0.1, "latin-america": 0.3, "russia-eurasia": 0.2 }, "loss_basis": "Industries built behind tariffs, trade won by diversion, and interests traded in the settlement", "gain_exceptions": { "RUS": 0.9, "UKR": 0.7 }, "loss_exceptions": { "VNM": 0.8, "MYS": 0.7, "TWN": 0.8, "MEX": 0.8, "IND": 0.5, "POL": 0.5, "UKR": 0.7, "THA": 0.5 }, "gain_weights": { "prior": 0.4, "trade_open": 0.3, "bloc_trade": 0.3 }, "loss_weights": { "prior": 1 } }, "S19": { "required": [ "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption", "transparency-oversight-and-accountability", "financial-regulation-and-integrity", "health-system-capability" ], "adaptive": [ "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "financial-stability-and-crisis-management" ], "gain": { "north-america": 0.1, "europe": 0.1, "china": 0.1, "indo-pacific": 0.4, "south-asia": 0.8, "gulf-middle-east": 0.5, "africa": 0.9, "latin-america": 0.5, "russia-eurasia": 0.3 }, "loss": { "north-america": 0.2, "europe": 0.2, "china": 0.6, "indo-pacific": 0.05, "south-asia": 0.05, "gulf-middle-east": 0.1, "africa": 0.05, "latin-america": 0.05, "russia-eurasia": 0.05 }, "loss_basis": "Losses taken as a creditor", "gain_exceptions": {}, "loss_exceptions": { "JPN": 0.3, "SAU": 0.3, "ARE": 0.3, "IND": 0.2 }, "gain_weights": { "prior": 0.3, "public_debt": 0.3, "low_reserves": 0.4 }, "gain_scale_by": "low_income", "loss_weights": { "prior": 1 } }, "S20": { "required": [ "transport-infrastructure", "energy-infrastructure", "foundational-education", "technical-and-vocational-skills", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "trade-facilitation-and-logistics", "investment-attraction-and-projection", "industrial-and-sectoral-base" ], "adaptive": [ "structural-transformation-and-complexity", "innovation-and-commercialisation", "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration" ], "gain": { "north-america": 0.3, "europe": 0.3, "china": 0.4, "indo-pacific": 0.7, "south-asia": 1, "gulf-middle-east": 0.5, "africa": 0.8, "latin-america": 0.6, "russia-eurasia": 0.3 }, "gain_weights": { "prior": 0.4, "youth": 0.3, "low_income": 0.3 }, "gain_exceptions": { "MEX": 0.8 }, "loss": { "north-america": 0.4, "europe": 0.4, "china": 0.5, "indo-pacific": 0.3, "south-asia": 0.1, "gulf-middle-east": 0.1, "africa": 0.2, "latin-america": 0.2, "russia-eurasia": 0.2 }, "loss_weights": { "prior": 0.6, "industry": 0.4 }, "loss_scale_by_inverse": "low_income", "loss_exceptions": {}, "loss_basis": "Incumbent manufacturing exporters that lose market share, and nations bypassed by investment" }, "S21": { "required": [ "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks", "alliances-and-security-cooperation", "energy-infrastructure", "transport-infrastructure", "trade-facilitation-and-logistics", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "internal-security-and-order" ], "adaptive": [ "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "structural-transformation-and-complexity", "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration" ], "gain": { "north-america": 0.3, "europe": 0.5, "china": 0.5, "indo-pacific": 0.5, "south-asia": 0.6, "gulf-middle-east": 1, "africa": 0.4, "latin-america": 0.2, "russia-eurasia": 0.2 }, "gain_weights": { "prior": 0.6, "energy_import": 0.3, "conflict_neighbour": 0.1 }, "gain_exceptions": {}, "loss": { "north-america": 0.2, "europe": 0.05, "china": 0.05, "indo-pacific": 0.05, "south-asia": 0.05, "gulf-middle-east": 0.1, "africa": 0.15, "latin-america": 0.2, "russia-eurasia": 0.4 }, "loss_weights": { "prior": 0.5, "fuel_export": 0.5 }, "loss_exceptions": { "SAU": 0.1, "ARE": 0.1, "QAT": 0.1, "KWT": 0.15, "OMN": 0.15, "BHR": 0.1, "IRQ": 0.2, "IRN": 0.1, "RUS": 0.7 }, "loss_basis": "Oil exporters elsewhere that lose the risk premium, and suppliers of arms" }, "S22": { "required": [ "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure", "biotechnology-and-health-technologies", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "transport-infrastructure", "technology-adoption-and-diffusion" ], "adaptive": [ "structural-transformation-and-complexity", "export-capability-and-sophistication", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance" ], "gain": { "north-america": 0.2, "europe": 0.2, "china": 0.5, "indo-pacific": 0.5, "south-asia": 0.9, "gulf-middle-east": 0.6, "africa": 1, "latin-america": 0.5, "russia-eurasia": 0.2 }, "gain_weights": { "prior": 0.3, "food_import": 0.35, "low_income": 0.35 }, "gain_exceptions": {}, "loss": { "north-america": 0.5, "europe": 0.2, "china": 0.05, "indo-pacific": 0.2, "south-asia": 0.05, "gulf-middle-east": 0.05, "africa": 0.05, "latin-america": 0.3, "russia-eurasia": 0.4 }, "loss_weights": { "prior": 1 }, "loss_exceptions": { "USA": 0.5, "CAN": 0.6, "BRA": 0.7, "ARG": 0.8, "AUS": 0.6, "UKR": 0.8, "RUS": 0.6, "THA": 0.5, "VNM": 0.5, "FRA": 0.4, "URY": 0.6, "PRY": 0.7, "KAZ": 0.5 }, "loss_basis": "Farm income in grain-exporting nations" }, "S23": { "required": [ "communications-and-digital-infrastructure", "financial-infrastructure", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls", "digital-and-ai-competence", "connectivity-cyber-and-trust-technologies", "transparency-oversight-and-accountability" ], "adaptive": [ "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights", "transparency-oversight-and-accountability", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption" ], "gain": { "north-america": 0.3, "europe": 0.3, "china": 0.2, "indo-pacific": 0.6, "south-asia": 0.8, "gulf-middle-east": 0.5, "africa": 1, "latin-america": 0.7, "russia-eurasia": 0.5 }, "gain_weights": { "prior": 0.4, "low_income": 0.4, "youth": 0.2 }, "gain_exceptions": {}, "loss": { "north-america": 0.3, "europe": 0.2, "china": 0.3, "indo-pacific": 0.2, "south-asia": 0.3, "gulf-middle-east": 0.3, "africa": 0.3, "latin-america": 0.25, "russia-eurasia": 0.4 }, "loss_weights": { "prior": 1 }, "loss_exceptions": {}, "loss_basis": "Exclusion, outage and surveillance where safeguards are weak; incumbents that lose margin" }, "S24": { "required": [ "health-system-capability", "biotechnology-and-health-technologies", "population-health", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management", "information-environment-and-strategic-communication", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "research-talent-and-knowledge-creation" ], "adaptive": [ "health-system-capability", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "information-environment-and-strategic-communication" ], "gain": { "north-america": 0.8, "europe": 0.8, "china": 0.8, "indo-pacific": 0.8, "south-asia": 0.8, "gulf-middle-east": 0.6, "africa": 0.8, "latin-america": 0.7, "russia-eurasia": 0.6 }, "gain_weights": { "prior": 0.3, "urban": 0.3, "ageing": 0.2, "trade_open": 0.2 }, "gain_exceptions": {}, "loss": { "north-america": 0.1, "europe": 0.05, "china": 0.2, "indo-pacific": 0.05, "south-asia": 0.1, "gulf-middle-east": 0.1, "africa": 0.15, "latin-america": 0.1, "russia-eurasia": 0.3 }, "loss_weights": { "prior": 1 }, "loss_exceptions": {}, "loss_basis": "Standing outside the surveillance and manufacturing network" } }, "likelihood": { "band_probability": { "1": 0.001, "2": 0.006, "3": 0.03, "4": 0.15, "5": 0.4 }, "band_note": "Each likelihood band is turned into a probability at the midpoint of its range; band 5, which is open-ended, is taken as 40 per cent.", "short_horizon_years": 3, "short_note": "The three-year probability is scaled up from the two-year band, assuming a constant yearly chance.", "long_horizon_years": 10, "idiosyncratic_note": "For scenarios that strike one nation at a time, a nation's probability is the scenario's probability scaled by its exposure relative to the average nation, so that more exposed nations are also more likely to be struck.", "independence_note": "Scenarios are treated as independent. They are not: one can trigger another, so the sum overstates some combinations and misses compounding." }, "composites": { "vulnerability": "Expected loss: the sum over downside scenarios of probability times the fall in the capability index, as a share of the baseline index. Scaled so the most vulnerable nation is 100.", "worst_case": "The largest single fall across the downside scenarios, as a share of the baseline index, and the scenario that causes it.", "tail": "The mean of the three largest falls.", "breadth": "The number of downside scenarios in which at least one capability domain falls a band.", "resilience": "The share of the shock a nation's own buffers absorb, across all downside scenarios: one minus the fall under current plans over the fall with no response.", "policy_dividend": "Expected index points recovered by moving from current plans to best practice, weighted by probability.", "weakest_link": "The capability that is a nation's weakest point in the most downside scenarios.", "opportunity": "The probability-weighted mean net position across the upside scenarios, from −100 to +100.", "best_case": "The largest single net position across the upside scenarios, and the scenario that gives it.", "quadrants": "Nations are placed against the median of each index: well placed (low vulnerability, high opportunity), high stakes (high on both), insulated (low on both) and exposed (high vulnerability, low opportunity)." } }