Scenarios 2027 / Scenarios
Rated at Standard Severe. Likelihood type: idiosyncratic (clustered around conflicts). Source of scores: ginc-desk-v0.2.
The border crossing that handled 2,000 people a day is handling 60,000 by the end of the first week. The reception plan assumed 50,000 arrivals over a year; that number passes in eleven days. Sports halls, then schools, then a disused airport become shelters. Municipalities that lost their last paediatrician years ago register 4,000 children in a month. The labour ministry fast-tracks work permits and discovers the credential-recognition system takes nine months. Rents in border cities rise 20 per cent by summer; a political party built on that number polls third by autumn. Hospitals absorb a population of patients with interrupted treatment and no records. International pledges are announced at a conference and arrive, in part, the following year. Two years on, a quarter of the arrivals have gone home, a quarter have moved on, and half are a permanent part of a country that did not plan for them and whose economy, it turns out, needed them.
The dateline is illustrative, not a forecast. The narrative is hypothetical; the historical anchors below are real events.
A nation receives arrivals equal to 1 to 3 per cent of its population within 12 months, from a neighbouring war, a disaster or a state collapse. Housing, health, schooling, labour markets and social cohesion are loaded at once, and the fiscal cost lands before any international burden-sharing. Switzerland ranks 'people seeking protection' fourth of 44 hazards; the WEF lists involuntary migration among its global risks. v0.2 added this scenario because v0.1 had no demographic shock.
| Event | Date | What happened | Calibrates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 2022 | About 8 million refugees across Europe; Poland registered roughly 1.5 million within weeks, about 4 per cent of its population | Standard Severe arrival rate |
| Europe | 2015–2016 | Around 1.3 million asylum applications in the EU in 2015; political consequences lasted a decade | political channel |
| Sudan | 2023–2025 | Over 12 million displaced; Chad and Egypt received millions | low-income receiving states |
| Venezuela | 2015–2024 | About 7.7 million left; Colombia received around 2.8 million | protracted regional displacement |
| Switzerland national risk analysis | 2025 | 'People seeking protection' ranked fourth of 44 hazards by expected loss | national-register precedent |
| Türkiye | 2011–2016 | Around 3.6 million Syrians registered | largest single host |
Shown at their preset values. Parameters are not adjustable in this release and nothing on this page is computed from them. Custom settings run (Phase B) but are labelled 'non-standard run' and excluded from comparisons.
| Parameter | Default | Range or options | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arrivals as share of population | 2 per cent | 0.5–5 | — |
| Arrival window | 6 months | 1–12 | — |
| Origin | neighbouring war | options: disaster / state collapse / climate | — |
| Legal regime | temporary protection | options: asylum backlog / closed border | — |
| International burden-sharing | partial | none–full | — |
| Return rate within two years | 25 per cent | 0–60 | — |
High: capability band shifts expected under current plans. Medium: band shifts under 'none' policy response only. Low: strain without band shift. Loads are judgement-based until the Atlas connects. Domains link to the Atlas.
| Domain | Load | Channel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | ||
| Defence and security | Medium | border management, registration, security screening |
| Strategic infrastructure | Medium | housing, transport, utilities in receiving regions |
| Critical technology | Low | registration and identity systems |
| Soft | ||
| Government effectiveness | High | reception, legal processing, inter-governmental coordination |
| Human capital | High | health, education, credential recognition, labour integration |
| Influence and cohesion | High | social cohesion, political stability, international solidarity |
| Economic | ||
| Macro-financial | Medium | fiscal cost; later labour-supply gains |
| Industry, trade and supply | Low | labour-market matching |
| Energy and resources | Low | utility demand |
| Region | Exposure | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| North America | Medium | Western Hemisphere displacement |
| Europe | High | Ukraine, Middle East, Africa routes |
| China | Low | — |
| Indo-Pacific | Medium | Myanmar, Pacific climate displacement |
| South Asia | High | Afghanistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh |
| Gulf and Middle East | High | Syria, Sudan, Yemen, Gaza |
| Africa | High | Sudan, Sahel, DRC, Horn |
| Latin America and Caribbean | High | Venezuela, Haiti |
| Russia and Eurasia | Medium | — |
| Indicator | Source | Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| UNHCR and IOM displacement figures in neighbouring states | — | — |
| Border crossing counts | — | — |
| Asylum application backlogs | Eurostat | — |
| Reception capacity utilisation | — | — |
| Rent indices in receiving regions | — | — |
| ACLED conflict intensity in origin states | — | — |
| Drought and famine early warning | FEWS NET | — |
From the GINC 250: trends rated Very high or Critical for this scenario. All S08 trend scores.
| Rating | Band or level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Likelihood, two years | 3Possible | A handful of nations a year receive arrivals above 1 per cent of population; the per-nation base rate is 1 to 2 per cent a year, higher for neighbours of active conflicts. |
| Likelihood, ten years | 4Likely | — |
| Systemic impact | 2Moderate | — |
| National impact | 4Severe | Services and cohesion strained but recoverable. |
| Confidence | medium | — |
Source of scores: ginc-desk-v0.2. Confidence refers to the rating, not the scenario. Calibration sources are listed with the anchors above and on the methodology page.
Contested assumptions for the panel to resolve.
No signed commentary in this build.
0.2.0 · active0.2.0 · 2 October 2026 · Entered the Library at v0.2 with GINC desk scores.GINC (2027). Scenario S08 Mass displacement shock, Scenario Library v0.2. scenarios.ginc.org/library/mass-displacement-shockContent and data are published under CC BY 4.0.