GINC 250 / Asylum & migration system strain

Trend · rank 144 of 250

Asylum & migration system strain

Governance & IntegritySociety & Culturedemographyinstitutions

Backlogs, contested rules and thin reception capacity as arrivals outpace the systems built to process them.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank144 of 250
Sensitivity12.5 · rank 130
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank30.6 · rank 162
Eigenvector2.6
Betweenness22.1
Links12 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite22.2

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
4HighPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
1Very lowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
3ModeratePolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
3ModerateCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
3ModerateLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModerateClimate migrationSociety & Culture120
3ModerateExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
3ModerateRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
3ModerateOrganised crime & illicit economiesSociety & Culture181
3ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184