Sensitivity and network position
Rank2 of 250
Sensitivity59.7 · rank 1
Breadth13 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank86.8 · rank 5
Eigenvector11.3
Betweenness54.5
Links27 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite78.1
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 6Critical | Digital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 5Very high | Catastrophic disaster in the core S10 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 5Very high | Pandemic with a novel pathogen S14 | E Health |
| 5Very high | Emerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗ | A Economic and trade |
| 5Very high | Hundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | E Health |
| 4High | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | A Economic and trade |
| 4High | Political legitimacy crisis S07 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 4High | Mass displacement shock S08 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 4High | Critical infrastructure collapse S12 | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 4High | Rapid AI diffusion shock S13 | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 4High | Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 4High | Biomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗ | E Health |
| 4High | Coordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | A Economic and trade |
| 3Moderate | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | A Economic and trade |
| 3Moderate | Global financial crisis S03 | A Economic and trade |
| 3Moderate | Maritime chokepoint closure S05 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 3Moderate | Hybrid campaign by a hostile state S06 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 3Moderate | Energy supply shock S09 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 3Moderate | Food and water system shock S11 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 3Moderate | Energy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 3Moderate | Agricultural yield revolution S22 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 2Low | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | A Economic and trade |
| 2Low | Great-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security |
| 0Not related | Middle East regional settlement S21 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Paradigm | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Very high | Public procurement reform | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 35 |
| 5Very high | Outsourcing & public-private delivery | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 101 |
| 4High | Weak social protection | Society & Culture | 12 |
| 4High | Fiscal rules & budget credibility | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 58 |
| 4High | Corruption & kleptocracy | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 62 |
| 4High | Official statistics & data capacity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 81 |
| 4High | Illicit finance & beneficial ownership | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 83 |
| 4High | Local & city government capacity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 96 |
| 4High | Adaptive regulation | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 118 |
| 4High | Civil service capability & pay | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 125 |
| 3Moderate | Weakening multilateral institutions | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 18 |
| 3Moderate | Declining institutional trust | Society & Culture | 23 |
| 3Moderate | Technical standards competition | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 33 |
| 3Moderate | Erosion of rights & civic freedoms | Society & Culture | 43 |
| 3Moderate | Tax base erosion & global tax reform | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 53 |
| 3Moderate | Aid retrenchment | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 57 |
| 3Moderate | Public-sector AI adoption | Technology & Financials | 66 |
| 3Moderate | Whole-of-society resilience | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 76 |
| 3Moderate | Global health governance | Health & Modern Science | 77 |
| 3Moderate | Research & development intensity | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 136 |
| 3Moderate | Executive overreach & emergency powers | Society & Culture | 141 |
| 3Moderate | Asylum & migration system strain | Society & Culture | 144 |
| 3Moderate | Rule of law & judicial independence | Society & Culture | 146 |
| 3Moderate | Regulatory capture & lobbying power | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 148 |
| 3Moderate | AI safety & governance | Technology & Financials | 152 |
| 3Moderate | Central bank independence under pressure | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 160 |
| 3Moderate | Citizen participation & deliberative democracy | Society & Culture | 184 |