GINC 250 / Technical standards competition

Trend · rank 33 of 250

Technical standards competition

Information & InfluenceGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicsinstitutions

Rivalry over who writes the standards for telecoms, AI, energy and payments, which decides whose equipment the world runs on.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank33 of 250
Sensitivity13.9 · rank 115
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank52.7 · rank 38
Eigenvector52.2
Betweenness35.8
Links23 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite37.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
4HighRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
4HighResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
4HighSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
4HighDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
3ModerateDigital sovereignty & data localisationTechnology & Financials50
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateInternational student flowsSociety & Culture224