GINC 250 / Research security & science decoupling

Trend · rank 51 of 250

Research security & science decoupling

Information & InfluenceGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicswork skills

Restrictions on research collaboration, students and data between rival blocs, and the cost to open science.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank51 of 250
Sensitivity13.9 · rank 116
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank45.5 · rank 71
Eigenvector49.7
Betweenness27.7
Links20 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite33.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
4HighUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
4HighTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
4HighInternational student flowsSociety & Culture224
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateTaiwan Strait tensionGeoeconomics & Statecraft10
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModerateDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115
3ModerateResearch & development intensityGeoeconomics & Statecraft136