GINC 250 / Weakening multilateral institutions

Trend · rank 18 of 250

Weakening multilateral institutions

Information & InfluenceGeoeconomics & Statecraftgeoeconomicsinstitutions

The declining authority and funding of the UN system, the WTO and the international financial institutions, and the turn to ad hoc groupings.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank18 of 250
Sensitivity33.3 · rank 3
Breadth6 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank51.9 · rank 42
Eigenvector46.0
Betweenness15.7
Links18 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite45.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
5Very highGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
5Very highCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
4HighSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
4HighPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
4HighHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
3ModerateMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
2LowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highTechnical standards competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft33
5Very highDiplomatic capacity under strainGeoeconomics & Statecraft115
4HighRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
4HighUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
4HighGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateGreat-power competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft1
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateResearch security & science decouplingGeoeconomics & Statecraft51
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateSoft power & cultural influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft85
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90