GINC 250 / Dollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentation

Trend · rank 73 of 250

Dollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentation

Financial StrengthGeoeconomics & Statecraftdebt financegeoeconomics

Reliance on dollar funding and messaging systems, and the attempts to build alternatives as financial exclusion becomes a tool of policy.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank73 of 250
Sensitivity13.9 · rank 110
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank53.4 · rank 35
Eigenvector32.8
Betweenness12.4
Links23 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite31.1

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
5Very highSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
1Very lowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
5Very highChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
4HighSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
4HighSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
4HighStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
4HighDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateUS policy volatilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft14
3ModerateWeakening multilateral institutionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft18
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModerateGlobal South coalitionsGeoeconomics & Statecraft67
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateInflation & cost of livingGeoeconomics & Statecraft72
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
3ModerateAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
3ModerateBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
3ModerateNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
3ModerateCommercial real estate stressGeoeconomics & Statecraft215