GINC 250 / Sovereign debt accumulation

Trend · rank 5 of 250

Sovereign debt accumulation

Financial StrengthGeoeconomics & Statecraftdebt finance

Public debt at record levels, a more diverse creditor base and higher interest bills that crowd out health, education and investment.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank5 of 250
Sensitivity28.5 · rank 10
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank74.8 · rank 9
Eigenvector21.7
Betweenness80.9
Links29 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite59.9

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
6CriticalCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
5Very highGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
2LowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
2LowGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
4HighEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
4HighAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
4HighFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
4HighInflation & cost of livingGeoeconomics & Statecraft72
4HighDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
4HighClimate finance & loss and damageEnergy & Environment79
4HighCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
4HighRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
4HighAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
4HighBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
4HighNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
4HighHousehold debt & housing affordabilitySociety & Culture175
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateCapital concentration in AIGeoeconomics & Statecraft74
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
3ModerateDevelopment finance as influenceGeoeconomics & Statecraft90
3ModeratePeak oil demand & petrostate exposureEnergy & Environment114
3ModeratePension & care system strainSociety & Culture143
3ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
3ModerateDisaster risk financeEnergy & Environment168
3ModerateFinancial inclusionTechnology & Financials195
3ModerateInsurance retreat & insurabilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft214
3ModerateCommercial real estate stressGeoeconomics & Statecraft215
3ModerateSustainable financeTechnology & Financials226