GINC 250 / Household debt & housing affordability

Trend · rank 175 of 250

Household debt & housing affordability

Financial StrengthSociety & Culturedebt financeinequality

High housing costs and mortgage debt, which leave households exposed to rates and jobs and shut the young out.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank175 of 250
Sensitivity11.1 · rank 159
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank33.8 · rank 144
Eigenvector6.3
Betweenness4.7
Links14 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite19.2

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
2LowEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
1Very lowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
4HighSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
4HighInflation & cost of livingGeoeconomics & Statecraft72
4HighFinancial inclusionTechnology & Financials195
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateInequalitySociety & Culture25
3ModerateCapital concentration in AIGeoeconomics & Statecraft74
3ModerateYouth unemployment & lack of opportunitySociety & Culture78
3ModerateRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
3ModeratePension & care system strainSociety & Culture143
3ModerateAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
3ModerateBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
3ModerateNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
3ModerateCommercial real estate stressGeoeconomics & Statecraft215