GINC 250 / Economic stagnation

Trend · rank 34 of 250

Economic stagnation

Financial StrengthGeoeconomics & Statecraftdebt financeinequality

Weak productivity and trend growth in advanced economies, narrowing fiscal space and sharpening distributional conflict.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank34 of 250
Sensitivity16.7 · rank 64
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank58.5 · rank 23
Eigenvector16.9
Betweenness35.0
Links25 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite37.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
4HighPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highInflation & cost of livingGeoeconomics & Statecraft72
5Very highHousehold debt & housing affordabilitySociety & Culture175
4HighSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
4HighChina's economic slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft9
4HighAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
4HighNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
4HighFinancial inclusionTechnology & Financials195
3ModerateInequalitySociety & Culture25
3ModerateForeign direct investment slowdownGeoeconomics & Statecraft52
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModerateFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateDollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft73
3ModerateCapital concentration in AIGeoeconomics & Statecraft74
3ModerateYouth unemployment & lack of opportunitySociety & Culture78
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateStablecoins & digital currenciesTechnology & Financials86
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
3ModeratePension & care system strainSociety & Culture143
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
3ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
3ModerateCommercial real estate stressGeoeconomics & Statecraft215