GINC 250 / Fiscal rules & budget credibility

Trend · rank 58 of 250

Fiscal rules & budget credibility

Governance & IntegrityGeoeconomics & Statecraftinstitutionsdebt finance

Whether a government's budget plans are believed, and the rules and institutions that make them so.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank58 of 250
Sensitivity18.1 · rank 57
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank50.3 · rank 49
Eigenvector10.4
Betweenness21.8
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite32.6

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
4HighGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
4HighCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
2LowDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
5Very highCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
4HighState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
4HighSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
4HighTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
4HighAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
4HighCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
4HighOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModerateTrade finance & correspondent banking gapsGeoeconomics & Statecraft70
3ModerateCreditor fragmentationGeoeconomics & Statecraft89
3ModerateLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159