GINC 250 / Civil service capability & pay

Trend · rank 125 of 250

Civil service capability & pay

Governance & IntegrityGeoeconomics & Statecraftinstitutionswork skills

The skills, pay and morale of public servants, and the state's ability to recruit technical talent.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank125 of 250
Sensitivity15.3 · rank 88
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank45.5 · rank 69
Eigenvector5.6
Betweenness0.4
Links18 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite24.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
3ModerateSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
4HighState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
4HighPublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
4HighPublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
4HighOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
3ModerateCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModerateDigital public infrastructureTechnology & Financials103
3ModerateAdaptive regulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft118
3ModerateExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateAI safety & governanceTechnology & Financials152
3ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184