GINC 250 / Executive overreach & emergency powers

Trend · rank 141 of 250

Executive overreach & emergency powers

Governance & IntegritySociety & Culturepoliticsinstitutions

Governments ruling by decree or emergency measure, and the difficulty of returning powers once taken.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank141 of 250
Sensitivity11.1 · rank 157
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank47.5 · rank 59
Eigenvector4.6
Betweenness2.8
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite22.7

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
4HighPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
2LowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
5Very highRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
5Very highCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184
4HighCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateDeclining institutional trustSociety & Culture23
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModeratePolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
3ModerateCivil unrestSociety & Culture59
3ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateAsylum & migration system strainSociety & Culture144
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateConspiracy movements & science denialSociety & Culture149
3ModerateElection integrity & interferenceSociety & Culture161
3ModerateDecline of independent journalismSociety & Culture165