GINC 250 / Erosion of rights & civic freedoms

Trend · rank 43 of 250

Erosion of rights & civic freedoms

Governance & IntegritySociety & Culturepoliticsinstitutions

Shrinking space for media, courts, civil society and opposition, and weaker protection of rights at home and through supply chains.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank43 of 250
Sensitivity13.9 · rank 114
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank62.6 · rank 17
Eigenvector6.5
Betweenness28.9
Links25 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite34.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
1Very lowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
5Very highExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
5Very highRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
5Very highCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184
4HighWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
4HighPolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
4HighAsylum & migration system strainSociety & Culture144
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateDeclining institutional trustSociety & Culture23
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModerateCivil unrestSociety & Culture59
3ModeratePublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
3ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModerateOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateReligious & identity nationalismSociety & Culture140
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateElection integrity & interferenceSociety & Culture161
3ModerateDecline of independent journalismSociety & Culture165
3ModerateData protection & digital rightsTechnology & Financials166
3ModerateTransnational repression & diaspora politicsSociety & Culture177
3ModerateOrganised crime & illicit economiesSociety & Culture181
3ModerateCensorship & surveillanceSociety & Culture189