GINC 250 / Public-sector AI adoption

Trend · rank 66 of 250

Public-sector AI adoption

Governance & IntegrityTechnology & Financialsaiinstitutions

Governments using AI in casework, services and decisions, and whether the state adopts as fast as the firms it regulates.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank66 of 250
Sensitivity13.9 · rank 112
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank51.5 · rank 43
Eigenvector7.0
Betweenness33.7
Links22 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite32.2

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
1Very lowPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highAdaptive regulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft118
5Very highAI safety & governanceTechnology & Financials152
4HighPublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
4HighOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
4HighCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateCompute scaling & AI infrastructureTechnology & Financials17
3ModerateArtificial intelligenceTechnology & Financials27
3ModerateErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateFrontier model concentrationTechnology & Financials63
3ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateAI-mediated informationTechnology & Financials97
3ModerateDigital public infrastructureTechnology & Financials103
3ModerateAutomated AI researchTechnology & Financials119
3ModerateAI agents & knowledge-work automationTechnology & Financials128
3ModerateOpen-weight AI diffusionTechnology & Financials134
3ModerateRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
3ModerateHumanoid roboticsTechnology & Financials157
3ModerateData protection & digital rightsTechnology & Financials166
3ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184