GINC 250 / AI-mediated information

Trend · rank 97 of 250

AI-mediated information

Information & InfluenceTechnology & Financialsinformationai

Chatbots and AI summaries becoming the first place people look, which moves the power to frame facts from publishers to model owners.

Broken out from Misinformation & disinformation

Sensitivity and network position

Rank97 of 250
Sensitivity9.0 · rank 186
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank41.0 · rank 99
Eigenvector5.2
Betweenness44.8
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite27.8

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highSynthetic media & deepfakesSociety & Culture150
4HighMisinformation & disinformationSociety & Culture65
4HighPlatform power over public discourseSociety & Culture167
3ModerateCompute scaling & AI infrastructureTechnology & Financials17
3ModerateDeclining institutional trustSociety & Culture23
3ModerateArtificial intelligenceTechnology & Financials27
3ModerateForeign information manipulationSociety & Culture47
3ModerateFrontier model concentrationTechnology & Financials63
3ModeratePublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
3ModerateAutomated AI researchTechnology & Financials119
3ModerateAI agents & knowledge-work automationTechnology & Financials128
3ModerateGraduate labour market squeezeSociety & Culture132
3ModerateOpen-weight AI diffusionTechnology & Financials134
3ModerateAI safety & governanceTechnology & Financials152
3ModerateHumanoid roboticsTechnology & Financials157
3ModerateElection integrity & interferenceSociety & Culture161
3ModerateDecline of independent journalismSociety & Culture165
3ModerateAutonomous vehiclesIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation183
3ModerateOpen-source intelligence & transparencyTechnology & Financials204