GINC 250 / Compute scaling & AI infrastructure

Trend · rank 17 of 250

Compute scaling & AI infrastructure

Critical TechnologyTechnology & Financialscomputeai

The build-out of chips, data centres and power for training and running frontier models, doubling on a timescale of months.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank17 of 250
Sensitivity16.7 · rank 65
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank46.3 · rank 66
Eigenvector13.0
Betweenness98.0
Links19 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite45.9

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highFrontier model concentrationTechnology & Financials63
4HighAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
4HighArtificial intelligenceTechnology & Financials27
4HighAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
4HighLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
4HighAutomated AI researchTechnology & Financials119
4HighOpen-weight AI diffusionTechnology & Financials134
4HighHumanoid roboticsTechnology & Financials157
4HighQuantum computingTechnology & Financials190
3ModerateDigital sovereignty & data localisationTechnology & Financials50
3ModerateAI-accelerated scienceTechnology & Financials56
3ModeratePublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
3ModerateCapital concentration in AIGeoeconomics & Statecraft74
3ModerateData-centre power demandEnergy & Environment88
3ModerateAI-mediated informationTechnology & Financials97
3ModerateAI agents & knowledge-work automationTechnology & Financials128
3ModerateAI safety & governanceTechnology & Financials152
3ModeratePost-quantum cryptography transitionTechnology & Financials173
3ModerateCloud & edge computingTechnology & Financials191