Sensitivity and network position
Rank15 of 250
Sensitivity22.9 · rank 26
Breadth5 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank60.4 · rank 19
Eigenvector50.2
Betweenness47.0
Links25 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite47.9
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 6Critical | Single-supplier cut-off S02 | A Economic and trade |
| 6Critical | Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 5Very high | Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | A Economic and trade |
| 4High | Rapid AI diffusion shock S13 | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 4High | Great-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security |
| 2Low | Global financial crisis S03 | A Economic and trade |
| 2Low | Maritime chokepoint closure S05 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 2Low | Critical infrastructure collapse S12 | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 1Very low | Hybrid campaign by a hostile state S06 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 1Very low | Energy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Sovereign funding crisis S04 | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Political legitimacy crisis S07 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 0Not related | Mass displacement shock S08 | B Geopolitical and security |
| 0Not related | Energy supply shock S09 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Catastrophic disaster in the core S10 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Food and water system shock S11 | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Pandemic with a novel pathogen S14 | E Health |
| 0Not related | Biomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗ | E Health |
| 0Not related | Coordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Emerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗ | A Economic and trade |
| 0Not related | Middle East regional settlement S21 ↗ | B Geopolitical and security |
| 0Not related | Agricultural yield revolution S22 ↗ | C Energy, climate and resources |
| 0Not related | Digital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗ | D Technology and infrastructure |
| 0Not related | Hundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | E Health |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Paradigm | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6Critical | AI chips & accelerator supply | Technology & Financials | 44 |
| 6Critical | Lithography & chip-tool chokepoints | Technology & Financials | 69 |
| 4High | Compute scaling & AI infrastructure | Technology & Financials | 17 |
| 4High | Digital sovereignty & data localisation | Technology & Financials | 50 |
| 4High | Frontier model concentration | Technology & Financials | 63 |
| 4High | Quantum computing | Technology & Financials | 190 |
| 3Moderate | Great-power competition | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 1 |
| 3Moderate | Supply-chain concentration | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 3 |
| 3Moderate | Export controls & economic statecraft | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 4 |
| 3Moderate | Shifting economic power | Society & Culture | 6 |
| 3Moderate | Economic security policy | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 7 |
| 3Moderate | Deglobalisation | Society & Culture | 8 |
| 3Moderate | Taiwan Strait tension | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 10 |
| 3Moderate | Rise of middle powers | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 11 |
| 3Moderate | Industrial policy competition | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 19 |
| 3Moderate | Artificial intelligence | Technology & Financials | 27 |
| 3Moderate | Technical standards competition | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 33 |
| 3Moderate | Research security & science decoupling | Geoeconomics & Statecraft | 51 |
| 3Moderate | Rare earth processing concentration | Energy & Environment | 61 |
| 3Moderate | Critical minerals supply | Energy & Environment | 82 |
| 3Moderate | Open-weight AI diffusion | Technology & Financials | 134 |
| 3Moderate | Humanoid robotics | Technology & Financials | 157 |
| 3Moderate | Post-quantum cryptography transition | Technology & Financials | 173 |
| 3Moderate | Cloud & edge computing | Technology & Financials | 191 |
| 3Moderate | Advanced materials | Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation | 231 |