GINC 250 / Advanced materials

Trend · rank 231 of 250

Advanced materials

Critical TechnologyIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportationmaterials

Novel materials such as composites, graphene and smart alloys enabling lighter, stronger and more functional products.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank231 of 250
Sensitivity6.3 · rank 207
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank14.0 · rank 232
Eigenvector9.4
Betweenness3.3
Links6 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite10.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
2LowGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
2LowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
2LowEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighCircular materials & recyclingEnergy & Environment239
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
3ModerateRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82