GINC 250 / Rare earth processing concentration

Trend · rank 61 of 250

Rare earth processing concentration

Trade & InvestmentEnergy & Environmentmaterialsgeoeconomics

The refining and magnet-making stages of rare earths held almost entirely by one country, and licensed as an instrument of policy.

Broken out from Critical minerals supply

Sensitivity and network position

Rank61 of 250
Sensitivity16.0 · rank 78
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 2 Critical
PageRank47.1 · rank 61
Eigenvector51.0
Betweenness12.6
Links20 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite32.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
6CriticalSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
4HighGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
2LowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
4HighSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
4HighShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
4HighEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateRise of middle powersGeoeconomics & Statecraft11
3ModerateFriend-shoring & regional trade blocsGeoeconomics & Statecraft13
3ModerateAdvanced semiconductorsTechnology & Financials15
3ModerateIndustrial policy competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft19
3ModeratePharmaceutical supply concentrationHealth & Modern Science40
3ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalGeoeconomics & Statecraft41
3ModerateAI chips & accelerator supplyTechnology & Financials44
3ModerateTariff escalationGeoeconomics & Statecraft46
3ModerateInfrastructure corridor competitionGeoeconomics & Statecraft48
3ModerateLithography & chip-tool chokepointsTechnology & Financials69
3ModerateManufacturing overcapacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft117
3ModerateCarbon border adjustmentsEnergy & Environment121
3ModerateAdvanced materialsIndustrials, Manufacturing & Transportation231
3ModerateCircular materials & recyclingEnergy & Environment239