GINC 250 / Pharmaceutical supply concentration

Trend · rank 40 of 250

Pharmaceutical supply concentration

Trade & InvestmentHealth & Modern Sciencegeoeconomicshealth systems

Dependence on a few countries for active ingredients and intermediates, visible only when a tender fails.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank40 of 250
Sensitivity16.7 · rank 66
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank30.4 · rank 163
Eigenvector23.6
Betweenness64.2
Links12 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite35.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
5Very highPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
5Very highHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
3ModerateGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
3ModerateBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighSupply-chain concentrationGeoeconomics & Statecraft3
3ModerateExport controls & economic statecraftGeoeconomics & Statecraft4
3ModerateShifting economic powerSociety & Culture6
3ModerateEconomic security policyGeoeconomics & Statecraft7
3ModerateDeglobalisationSociety & Culture8
3ModerateRare earth processing concentrationEnergy & Environment61
3ModerateGlobal health governanceHealth & Modern Science77
3ModerateCritical minerals supplyEnergy & Environment82
3ModerateRegional medicines manufacturingHealth & Modern Science127
3ModerateHealthcare system reformHealth & Modern Science129
3ModerateHealth workforce shortageHealth & Modern Science135
3ModerateMental healthHealth & Modern Science222