GINC 250 / Health workforce shortage

Trend · rank 135 of 250

Health workforce shortage

Human CapitalHealth & Modern Sciencehealth systemswork skills

Too few doctors, nurses and community health workers, with recruitment from poorer systems filling gaps in richer ones.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank135 of 250
Sensitivity14.6 · rank 99
Breadth3 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank33.8 · rank 145
Eigenvector1.5
Betweenness17.1
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite23.5

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
5Very highHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health
4HighBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
2LowCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
1Very lowCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighGlobal health governanceHealth & Modern Science77
4HighHealthcare system reformHealth & Modern Science129
4HighChild & maternal healthHealth & Modern Science151
4HighChronic disease burdenHealth & Modern Science162
4HighHygiene & sanitationHealth & Modern Science208
4HighMental healthHealth & Modern Science222
3ModeratePharmaceutical supply concentrationHealth & Modern Science40
3ModerateTalent & labour shortagesSociety & Culture137
3ModerateLearning loss & education qualitySociety & Culture154
3ModerateZoonotic spillover & pandemic riskHealth & Modern Science163
3ModerateAI diagnostics & predictive healthHealth & Modern Science187
3ModerateAntimicrobial resistanceHealth & Modern Science211
3ModerateDigital & remote careHealth & Modern Science225