GINC 250 / Chronic disease burden

Trend · rank 162 of 250

Chronic disease burden

Human CapitalHealth & Modern Sciencediseasehealth systems

The rising share of ill health and spending due to cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer and other long-term conditions.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank162 of 250
Sensitivity7.6 · rank 194
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank37.8 · rank 120
Eigenvector0.6
Betweenness22.2
Links17 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite21.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
1Very lowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
1Very lowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighHealthcare system reformHealth & Modern Science129
4HighHealth workforce shortageHealth & Modern Science135
4HighZoonotic spillover & pandemic riskHealth & Modern Science163
4HighAntimicrobial resistanceHealth & Modern Science211
4HighMental healthHealth & Modern Science222
4HighObesity & GLP-1 medicinesHealth & Modern Science230
3ModerateGlobal health governanceHealth & Modern Science77
3ModerateAgeing populationSociety & Culture106
3ModerateModern vaccinesHealth & Modern Science133
3ModerateChild & maternal healthHealth & Modern Science151
3ModerateAI diagnostics & predictive healthHealth & Modern Science187
3ModerateCare economy & unpaid workSociety & Culture201
3ModerateHygiene & sanitationHealth & Modern Science208
3ModerateWomen's health & fertility careHealth & Modern Science217
3ModerateDigital & remote careHealth & Modern Science225
3ModeratePollution & contaminantsEnergy & Environment233
3ModerateLongevity scienceHealth & Modern Science238