GINC 250 / Care economy & unpaid work

Trend · rank 201 of 250

Care economy & unpaid work

Human CapitalSociety & Culturedemographyinequality

The paid and unpaid care of children, the sick and the old, and who is left to provide it.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank201 of 250
Sensitivity4.2 · rank 238
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank33.0 · rank 147
Eigenvector0.9
Betweenness12.9
Links15 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite15.4

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
1Very lowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighAgeing populationSociety & Culture106
4HighTalent & labour shortagesSociety & Culture137
4HighPension & care system strainSociety & Culture143
4HighWomen's health & fertility careHealth & Modern Science217
4HighFalling fertility & population declineSociety & Culture218
3ModerateInequalitySociety & Culture25
3ModerateBrain drain & talent migrationSociety & Culture92
3ModerateHealthcare system reformHealth & Modern Science129
3ModerateChild & maternal healthHealth & Modern Science151
3ModerateLearning loss & education qualitySociety & Culture154
3ModerateChronic disease burdenHealth & Modern Science162
3ModerateAI diagnostics & predictive healthHealth & Modern Science187
3ModerateEmerging middle classSociety & Culture193
3ModerateDigital & remote careHealth & Modern Science225
3ModerateObesity & GLP-1 medicinesHealth & Modern Science230