GINC 250 / Pension & care system strain

Trend · rank 143 of 250

Pension & care system strain

Financial StrengthSociety & Culturedemographydebt finance

Rising pension, health and long-term care liabilities meeting a smaller base of contributors.

Broken out from Ageing population

Sensitivity and network position

Rank143 of 250
Sensitivity11.1 · rank 153
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
PageRank31.3 · rank 158
Eigenvector5.2
Betweenness24.6
Links14 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite22.3

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
6CriticalBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
3ModerateGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
2LowSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
1Very lowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
4HighAgeing populationSociety & Culture106
4HighRemittance dependenceSociety & Culture130
4HighCare economy & unpaid workSociety & Culture201
3ModerateSovereign debt accumulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft5
3ModerateEconomic stagnationGeoeconomics & Statecraft34
3ModerateTax base erosion & global tax reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft53
3ModerateAid retrenchmentGeoeconomics & Statecraft57
3ModerateAsset bubbles & stretched valuationsGeoeconomics & Statecraft147
3ModerateBank resilience & deposit flightGeoeconomics & Statecraft155
3ModerateNon-bank finance growthGeoeconomics & Statecraft159
3ModerateHousehold debt & housing affordabilitySociety & Culture175
3ModerateCommercial real estate stressGeoeconomics & Statecraft215
3ModerateWomen's health & fertility careHealth & Modern Science217
3ModerateFalling fertility & population declineSociety & Culture218