GINC 250 / Falling fertility & population decline

Trend · rank 218 of 250

Falling fertility & population decline

Human CapitalSociety & Culturedemography

Birth rates far below replacement across most advanced and many middle-income nations, shrinking future workforces.

Broken out from Ageing population

Sensitivity and network position

Rank218 of 250
Sensitivity6.9 · rank 200
Breadth1 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank24.4 · rank 205
Eigenvector0.7
Betweenness4.4
Links9 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite12.9

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
4HighBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
1Very lowGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
6CriticalAgeing populationSociety & Culture106
4HighDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
4HighTalent & labour shortagesSociety & Culture137
4HighCare economy & unpaid workSociety & Culture201
4HighWomen's health & fertility careHealth & Modern Science217
3ModerateBrain drain & talent migrationSociety & Culture92
3ModerateClimate migrationSociety & Culture120
3ModeratePension & care system strainSociety & Culture143
3ModerateChild & maternal healthHealth & Modern Science151