GINC 250 / Talent & labour shortages

Trend · rank 137 of 250

Talent & labour shortages

Human CapitalSociety & Culturework skillsdemography

Too few workers with the skills employers and public services need, as populations age and skills demand shifts.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank137 of 250
Sensitivity11.1 · rank 152
Breadth0 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank41.3 · rank 97
Eigenvector1.7
Betweenness16.0
Links17 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite23.2

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3ModerateRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
3ModerateEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
2LowPandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
1Very lowSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highBrain drain & talent migrationSociety & Culture92
4HighAgeing populationSociety & Culture106
4HighLearning loss & education qualitySociety & Culture154
4HighCare economy & unpaid workSociety & Culture201
4HighChanging nature of workSociety & Culture205
4HighFalling fertility & population declineSociety & Culture218
4HighInternational student flowsSociety & Culture224
3ModerateInequalitySociety & Culture25
3ModerateDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
3ModerateYouth unemployment & lack of opportunitySociety & Culture78
3ModerateInformal employmentSociety & Culture113
3ModerateAI agents & knowledge-work automationTechnology & Financials128
3ModerateGraduate labour market squeezeSociety & Culture132
3ModerateHealth workforce shortageHealth & Modern Science135
3ModerateReskilling & education technologySociety & Culture169
3ModerateWomen's health & fertility careHealth & Modern Science217
3ModerateGender equality & inclusionSociety & Culture219