GINC 250 / Informal employment

Trend · rank 113 of 250

Informal employment

Human CapitalSociety & Culturework skillsinequality

Work outside contracts, tax and social insurance, which leaves most workers in poorer nations beyond the reach of support.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank113 of 250
Sensitivity18.1 · rank 58
Breadth2 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank39.0 · rank 110
Eigenvector1.4
Betweenness9.7
Links13 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite25.9

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModeratePolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
2LowRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
2LowAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highYouth unemployment & lack of opportunitySociety & Culture78
5Very highLearning loss & education qualitySociety & Culture154
5Very highGender equality & inclusionSociety & Culture219
4HighInequalitySociety & Culture25
3ModerateWeak social protectionSociety & Culture12
3ModerateDemographic pressure in young nationsSociety & Culture28
3ModerateBrain drain & talent migrationSociety & Culture92
3ModerateMalnutritionSociety & Culture112
3ModerateGraduate labour market squeezeSociety & Culture132
3ModerateTalent & labour shortagesSociety & Culture137
3ModerateEmerging middle classSociety & Culture193
3ModerateFinancial inclusionTechnology & Financials195
3ModerateChanging nature of workSociety & Culture205