GINC 250 / Weak social protection

Trend · rank 12 of 250

Weak social protection

Governance & IntegritySociety & Cultureinequalityinstitutions

Safety nets, public services and insurance too thin to absorb a shock, so that losses fall on households.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank12 of 250
Sensitivity30.6 · rank 7
Breadth5 of 24 scenarios High or above
PageRank70.5 · rank 12
Eigenvector6.7
Betweenness43.5
Links27 trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite51.0

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
5Very highRapid AI diffusion shock S13D Technology and infrastructure
5Very highDigital public infrastructure leapfrog S23 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
4HighGlobal financial crisis S03A Economic and trade
4HighPolitical legitimacy crisis S07B Geopolitical and security
4HighSuperintelligence takeoff S15 ↗D Technology and infrastructure
3ModerateSovereign funding crisis S04A Economic and trade
3ModerateMass displacement shock S08B Geopolitical and security
3ModerateEnergy supply shock S09C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateCatastrophic disaster in the core S10C Energy, climate and resources
3ModerateFood and water system shock S11C Energy, climate and resources
3ModeratePandemic with a novel pathogen S14E Health
2LowBiomedical breakthrough wave S17 ↗E Health
2LowCoordinated sovereign debt reset S19 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedGeoeconomic confrontation S01A Economic and trade
0Not relatedSingle-supplier cut-off S02A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMaritime chokepoint closure S05B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedHybrid campaign by a hostile state S06B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedCritical infrastructure collapse S12D Technology and infrastructure
0Not relatedEnergy abundance breakthrough S16 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedGreat-power détente and peace dividend S18 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedEmerging-market growth breakout S20 ↗A Economic and trade
0Not relatedMiddle East regional settlement S21 ↗B Geopolitical and security
0Not relatedAgricultural yield revolution S22 ↗C Energy, climate and resources
0Not relatedHundred-day pandemic defence S24 ↗E Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.25 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain + 0.05 if in the same theme, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendParadigmRank
5Very highRegulatory capture & lobbying powerGeoeconomics & Statecraft148
4HighState capacity & deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft2
4HighInequalitySociety & Culture25
4HighErosion of rights & civic freedomsSociety & Culture43
4HighOutsourcing & public-private deliveryGeoeconomics & Statecraft101
3ModerateDeclining institutional trustSociety & Culture23
3ModeratePublic procurement reformGeoeconomics & Statecraft35
3ModeratePolarisation & populismSociety & Culture39
3ModerateFiscal rules & budget credibilityGeoeconomics & Statecraft58
3ModerateCivil unrestSociety & Culture59
3ModerateCorruption & kleptocracyGeoeconomics & Statecraft62
3ModeratePublic-sector AI adoptionTechnology & Financials66
3ModerateYouth unemployment & lack of opportunitySociety & Culture78
3ModerateOfficial statistics & data capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft81
3ModerateIllicit finance & beneficial ownershipGeoeconomics & Statecraft83
3ModerateLocal & city government capacityGeoeconomics & Statecraft96
3ModerateInformal employmentSociety & Culture113
3ModerateAdaptive regulationGeoeconomics & Statecraft118
3ModerateCivil service capability & payGeoeconomics & Statecraft125
3ModerateExecutive overreach & emergency powersSociety & Culture141
3ModerateAsylum & migration system strainSociety & Culture144
3ModerateRule of law & judicial independenceSociety & Culture146
3ModerateAI safety & governanceTechnology & Financials152
3ModerateCentral bank independence under pressureGeoeconomics & Statecraft160
3ModerateData protection & digital rightsTechnology & Financials166
3ModerateHousehold debt & housing affordabilitySociety & Culture175
3ModerateCitizen participation & deliberative democracySociety & Culture184